Tuesday, December 25, 2007

Is this the artic???

Ok, we had a lot of rain the other day, 1.69" inches to be exact. That much rain could have melted 4 feet of snow but it couldn't melt 5.5 inches of icepack that was here in northwest Jersey with a high temperature 0f 56 degrees. That goes to show how strong our snowpack was and why sleet isn't all that bad.

Now, we want to know when it can snow again? Well here in Vermont it will be snowing like everyday but you guys down there in Jersey are not so lucky. The models are trying to bring a coastal storm some more intense than others. The GFS shows some lights snow going off the coast and the NAM is showing a massive rain storm on the 30th. I would have the light snow but we will have to wait and see about that one.

Snowmaking will not return this month to Mountain Creek but January is quite different. The GFS model is showing 490 thickness values coming right into Jersey. I don't know if you realize this but that will send temperatures well below 0, well below -10 too. I don't know if it's going to get quite that cold but check it out for yourself. The map is clickable to make it bigger. It was even showing some florida snow, you can only laugh at that....
The models are hinting at another storm around the 7th so keep an eye on that. And if you want to do some investigative work into any future snow events go to some of my old blogs and check the NAO. If the red line goes negative watch out, its gunna be active!

Sunday, December 23, 2007

Last blog post till the new year... its interesting

You can read about the winter so far in my last blog as well as my January outlook, but whats going on with the models? Well the rest of December looks pretty upsetting and snowfall and snowmaking will be rare if at all. What really interests me is that the last day of December looks really warm and with the NAO going negative that should lead to really cold the next day later, so snowmaking could possibly resume in the new year.

So Darren, your getting excited for some more cold air? No, I am not. Im am excited because extreme warmth going to extreme in a days time means one thing. A low pressure system to balance things out. On the 1st-2nd of January the GFS is showing a major northeast storm and its one to watch but knowing our luck and the la nina it might just be all sleet again. I sure hope not. I looked at this morning on the model and thought "Gee that won't happen" but then I chekced the NAO and it is going to negative and everytime it goes negative we get a storm. The fact is the storm WILL happen. But where, who, how, why, what, and when are all just spectulation right now. (You can click on the map for a larger view)
All this looks to perfect for me. Way too perfect, and that is why I am bringing my computer to Vermont with me and hopefully I will get a chance to get on and write some updates. Until then you have every right to envy me while I'm boarding at Stowe!

Saturday, December 22, 2007

What is going to happen next?

One thing about me is I am very optimistic and when someone tells me something negative I don't believe it! Back in October Accuweather.com chief meteorologist Joe Bastardi put out his winter forecast. It called for a warm December, January, and into the first half of February and all could do was deny it. When October went into the books as the warmest on record (and it was) it was then followed by a November that was largely below average except for 2 days. In November southern Sussex picked up 6 inches of snow while northern Sussex picked up 8 inches during that month. And odd site for sure. December came by and brought 11 days of which we did not get about the freezing mark (32) and the average for the whole winter is 30, so we had a good head start. It also brought 9.75" inches of snow to southern Sussex making a season total of 15.75". In northern Sussex the season total of snow so far 21.75" and over two feet in the higher elevations. Not to mention winter didn't actually start yet.

Being the end of December the winter has been one of the coldest in recent memory and we are currently beating the past 10 years for season to date snowfall so far, very impressive. And not to mention 2007 will go down as the coldest year of the decade so far. Now that it is the first day of winter and we are all waiting for more snow and cold I have bad news, but maybe its not so bad?

Accuweather just put out their January forecast and it shows a warm month with very little chance of snow. Me being subborn won't go with that at all. The NAO is expect to tank again in early January and I have a feeling we will see a colder month than normal with these 2 or days of warmer temperature trends. These trends will be extreme and everyone knows on extreme leads to another of the opposite. If you want to get a good snowstorm you need to mix warm and cold air together because when the two airmasses collide with one another they create low pressure to balance them back out and bring things back to normal. Personally I see this last week of December to be a normal week temperature wise and some snow and rain will be around but nothing major, not that I see yet anyway.

The models are trending toward temps that are way to warm for any snowmaking but January could come in with a new weather pattern, one that trends with a few days of extreme warmth, then a massive system going from rain to snow, and then cold for a about week and that will repeat itself. It should be an interesting month and this is my personal opinion. And when the La Nina weakens at the end of the month winter will be in full force as the polar vortex over the artic comes down into Canada, the most of our cold and snow is still yet to come in February and March while January will not be so impressive.

Tomorrow will be my last post on potential snow until the end of the year because I will be heading up to Stowe Vermont! I can't wait :)

Sunday, December 16, 2007

It's not so bad!

After looking outside my front door at 6:00 a.m and seeing heavy sleet covering everything I realized something. This stuff is a great base builder for ski resorts like Mountain Creek! If it was powder than they couldn't blow snow on the bare trails because the base wouldn't hold, but this stuff is an excellent start! So far this year Netcong where I live has recieved 14.50 inches of the white stuff and its only mid December. We still have 3 1/2 months of snow left to go and April can always surprise us! I think we are doing great in the snow department for northwest Jersey. As for Mountain Creek, I have been keeping tabs on the snowfall there with some good friends and so far their season total is 17.75 inches + todays storm, so they are doing just fine for so early in the season. Just to give you a heads up, this time last year Mountain Creek had a season total of 0.00 inches (06-07) , 14 inches the year before (05-06), and 0.25 the year before(04-05). Yeah, we are off to a terrific start.

As the warmer air, it is coming but not all that bad. Snowmaking won't be very extensive but we will make due. As for snow the models are going with a Christmas day storm but I think it will end up being on Christmas eve. That fact is we are in a trend that could last months, perhaps it will be an all sleet event or snow or the 4 letter R word. But one thing is certain, there will be a storm around the Christmas time period.

Check out some of these cool images when the storm finally blow up off the coast:

Saturday, December 15, 2007

The January Thaw

Something I have been warning about for awhile was that mid December straight through most of January will be very warm. That is still going to happen, sorry. The models bring back warm air into our region next week and keep it here. This means that snowmaking may be limited to night time, if we are lucky anyway. Mountain Creek seems to have a nice solid base at South anyway and should withstand the warm spell that can last most of the winter. There will be cold air masses coming through once and awhile but nothing to get exited for.

As I look at the once great snowstorm for today I become upset. It shows all ice and then just plain old rain, and lots of it. Some people are mad at me for telling them that feet could fall in the matter of days, well I didn't. I look at the models and tell you what they are saying as of real time, nothing more, nothing less. The models are innaccurate and these are the same models used to forecast global warming 50 years into the future and they can't even forecast 2 days out. Funny, isn't it?

Friday, December 14, 2007

Light at the end of the tunnel?

Ok, so we got ripped off on Thursday, no big deal. Right? The upper regions of the atmosphere were just to warm to support snow over most of Sussex county and almost all the precip fell as sleet. With the NAO nearing -2 there will certainly be a Nor' Easter developing off the coast of Virgina and moving to the northeast. I hate to say this guys but once again I think the upper atmosphere will not be able to support snow and it will fall as sleet, freezing rain, and maybe a little snow to begin and end with. Sorry guys, I feel the pain too.

The fact of the matter is the storm has now tracked way out to the great lakes and then the seconday will form off the coast but by that time to much warm air will be around for accumulating snow. I have a feeling this is an indication of what will happen the rest of the season and that really upsets me. The cold air will now stay off to our west but will still provide Mountain Creek a few days to blow some of the white stuff, no single digits though, this storm meant everything...

As I look at the NAO it shows it staying negative for weeks on end and I know that is complete bull, don't fall for it. It has never stayed below -1 for more than a day or two, unlikely it will be there for weeks. Intersting thing is that if it does stay negative cold air will dominate the east for a long period of time and I know that just won't happen, cause nothing works out for me...
So what about accumulations for the storm? Don't get excited the least bit. I am staying a nice blanket of white, hard, gross, sloppy, ugly, smelly sleet and ice. Not the best thing in the world by any means. Unless by some divine miracle the snow gods decide to move this storm system some 50 miles east we don't have a change at Jersey powder. If by any strange event it did happen I would call for 8-12 inches of snow.
Whats next? The model is showing a Christmas storm! Don't get excited, knowing this trend we are in it will be sleet and freezing rain with a little snow to start and end like usual. I will keep you updated.
Check back here tonight for the snow map, you never know what could happen with the 18UTC model runs.

Thursday, December 13, 2007

We get ripped off yet again...

In the old days we use to get snowstorms with brief periods of sleet. Now why is it that entire storms can be sleet? The storm today started as sleet and quickly went over snow and extremely heavy at that, in fact I picked up two inches of snow in just 30 minutes! The temperatures will remained below freezing during the duration of both storms but the problem is high up in the atmosphere where there is warmer air aloft. Accumulations will be greatly affected by the sleet and ony your position north can save you from that.

As for this weekend, I am on edge right now. The track of the storm is the most important part and 20 miles either way will mean the difference between rain and heavy snow. I will post my final forecast for this weekend tomorrow night and I have a feeling we will all be let down, I have this strange vibe about it... Don't get bumbed out just yet, things can always change. I hope...

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Update on both storms...

For those of you wondering I have not overlooked the storm coming on Thursday of this week, I just didn't see it as big of a deal as I do right now. It looks like 6-10 inches will accumulate during the storm and that snow is not going to go anywhere any time soon. This storm will lack the winds of course which is a good thing but snow will be VERY heavy and 1-2 inch an hour rates will occur. Some schools may even let out early depending on the time of arrival. If you start seeing snow around 10:00 that is a good sign, because it will become heavy very fast and depending on the school an early dismissal is possible. Friday also looks good for delayes and school closures for Sussex, Western Morris, Warren, and Passaic counties.

Now onto storm number two. This one will bring with it extremely heavy snow with possible sleet mixing the farther south and east you go. Wind will be a serious issue as well as blowing and drifting of the snow. This is a Nor'easter folks and if you don't know what that is, it is one of mother natures most powerful storms. It is too early to tell but if I was a guessing man I would 8-12 inches in areas that get sleet mixing in and 12-18 inches where it stays all snow. This means that by the end of the two storms the north Jersey snowpack could reach 18-28 inches and that is Vermont like boarding and skiing. I will let you know for CERTAIN by Friday night, keep checking back for updates!

I don't have time for any colorful maps but I will try to get some on later. Think snow! And head Mountain Creek tomorrow, I sure am....

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

The blizzard of 2007?

Ok, right away you saw the word Blizzard which defined means: "A moderate to heavy snowfall with winds over 35mph for 3 hours or more with visibility reduced to 0-1/4 of a mile." Well we haven't had anything like that since January 8th 1996, but now 11 years later (in conjunction with the 11 year solar cycle) it could happen again. Let's talk about it a little more.

Between the time frame of Dec 15th-17th a major east coast snow storm is likely to happen but who, when, where, and how much snow is still unknown at this point. I am going to explain what will happen based off of the computer models that came out at 18UTC, Tuesday night. What I am going to show you is still just a possibility and not certain, not yet so don't get your hopes up.

First thing you want to look at living the northeast is the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) which is basically just a type of weather pattern with a negative, neutral, and positive phase. Negative phase is what we look for when we expect to get cold and snowy weather. The NAO below is forecasted to get down to -1 to -2 and that is not all that common as you can see from the past couple months. According to Kocins book when the NAO hits -1 is when most the major northeast blizzards have happened, I.E. 1996, 1978, etc.

Now let's take a look at the DGEX model which is just a down graded form the GFS mixed with the ETA. I see lots of snow...

The Euro really blows up a massive storm off the coast too!

The NAM model is a shorter range model but is begining to get into the action with the big boys!

Now for the GFS model, the only word able to describe this is "waist deep snow?". Lol, get it? That's three words! Ok, that's bad humor on my part, sorry. Well, perhaps not. It is showing some warmer air coming into the air which will allow for a period sleet but still a lot of snow, things can and will change...

Uncle Nor'easter is coming for you!

Friday, November 23, 2007

Snowmaking begins!!!

At 2:43 this morning I was woken by a beeping sound coming from my weather station. I had set the alarm to go off when the temperature hit 33.9 degrees and 47% humidity. For those of you who don't this, that equals a wet bulb of 27 degrees and therefore snowmaking is possible! Since then we have slowly been falling to a wet bulb of 25.8 degrees at 8:38 this morning. Humidity continued to drop through the day as well as the temperatures, in fact our high temperature for the day was set at mid-night with 34 degrees! And currently at 4:36 p.m the temperature is 31 and humidity is 19% to give a wet bulb of 23 which is EXCELLENT snowmaking weather!!! I expect the guns are already on at Creek or will be on within a few hours...

As for some natural snow HOLD TIGHT!!! The last few days of this month and early December are looking really GOOD for snowmaking and coastal developement.... :0

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Long range outlook Nov. 20th

After taking a short break from writing blogs I am back in action. The future for cold and snow looks upsetting to snowboarders and skiers but that's only according to the models. I am going to bring you through the models and we look from potential snow events and snow making opportunities.

A resort like Mountain Creek for example can't open with natural snow. They need to make their snow to build up their snow pack. It can be up to 50 degrees F and still allow for natural snowfall but in order to actually make snow they need to use the "wet bulb" temp chart. This chart takes the current humidity in the air and the temperature, all they need is a wet bulb temperature of 27. With 0% humidity snow can be made at 40 degrees! But we live in Jersey and humidity is much higher than that. With 100% humidity it needs to be 27 degrees outside before snow can be made, check out this chart to see what I'm talking about. Wet Bulb Chart

Now all we need is a few good days of low humidity and cold temperatures. Unfortunately I do not see that in our future. Up coming this Friday we should have a high temperature of around 34 degrees and snow making could be round the clock for around 36 hours but it's not enough to open up a resort. Here is the 18UTC NAM model for Saturday morning. I know it is hard to see but it is showing temperatures holding in the upper teens which are ideal for snowmaking. I think this is the first of snowmaking for Creek.

(The blue lines are the rain/snow line and each blue line shows different thickness values of the atmosphere which means how cold it is.)

As for snowmaking after this time period the models are not showing that to be a possibility, but I am going to risk my reputation and say that early December may be good for snow making. I am taking these computer models and throwing them in the garbage. There is just one thing that is bothering me, the NAO. The NAO is like a type of weather pattern and there are two phases, the negative and the positive. The positive phase means dry and warm weather for northeast U.S. and for Europe, while the negative phase is snowy and cold for both places. Just to show you how much this effects our weather the NAO was almost completely positive last winter and that is why it was less than ideal for riding. NAO also means that the east coast of the U.S MUST be watched for coastal storms or storms getting stronger as they hit the coast. Creek just got 6 more inches of snow Monday morning and guess what? We were in a slightly negative NAO phase. Keep your eye on this chart, when that red line goes negative expect cold and snow.

The thing is this winter according to some of the long range forecasters is NOT looking to very good snow and cold wise. They think that this December could be one of the warmest on record and that scares me. I am an optimistic person and I will doubt that until the time comes, I just don't see how things are going to be so warm at the solar cycle minimum right now and a neutral to slightly negative NAO forecast this winter. I am no professional yet (not until I finish college) but I think these others ideas of our weather are wrong, this is my gut instict and not set in stone just yet. Time will tell....


As for snow!!! I don't see anything major yet except for some lake effect possible on Friday but keep checking back for updates.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

This is quite interesting? Don't you think?

World Temperature change in past 100 years.

Doesn't this fit much better than C02?

Notice how in 1996 low NAO made it a colder year, now look at 1998 NAO peaked and its the warmest year on record? Hmm... Interesting. Too bad the NAO records only back to 1948. If you find that shocking the artic and anartic ice records are only 27 years old. How do we know 1934 (new warmest year on record) didn't have a record minimum ice extent?

Does C02 fit the temperatures better?

(I would say not.)

Whats with the 800 year lag in C02 after temperatures went up?

Ill give you the reason why, Anthropogenic Global Warming is a lie and it a phase. Come on! Man made C02 makes up a fraction of a fraction of the atmosphere and allows plants to grow healthier and bigger! C02 is also one of the weakest greenhouses and water vapor and methane are the strongest of them all. I know, let's tax water vapor! That should stop global warming.

Sunday, October 7, 2007

Pattern Change!

After 17 days of not posting a single blog I am ready to restart now. I was out enjoying the good life of fishing, biking, rock climbing, canoeing, splunking, hiking, boating, off roading, waxing my snowboard, and checking the GFS weather model every 6 hours. I hope you didn't spend your whole time by the computer because pretty soon that's all you will be able to do! We are on the edge of a major pattern change going straight from August like warmth to November like chill.

The NAO and AO are something I talk about all the time because they are the two key players in our weather here in North Jersey. (http://meteomaddness.blogspot.com/2007/09/snow-watch.html - go to that old blog to learn more about the NAO and AO) Both of the two are currently taking a nose dive toward the negative side and the weather will certainly take a nose dive along with it. The negative phase means cold air/low pressure for our region, just to give you a heads up, last winter was mostly a positive phase.

Let's get to the models! First model is the DGEX which is a downgraded form of the GFS. This shows the forecasted temperatures 150 hours out. As you can see from the key White is 0 degrees C, which is 32 degrees F. (First freeze!!!!) (MAP OF DATE, SORRY)
The next model is the NMC. Most know it as the spagehtti plot. It too shows cold air and if you want to see the animation click the link. http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spag_nhsm_animation.html

The GFS model is the last but not least. The 18 UTC model just came out and is showing some days where we won't even get above 50 for the day! Im not going to post the image itself, just click the link to look at the model run! http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/index_slp_lu_loop.shtml


The leaves are delayed a bit but they should peak in the next 8 t0 10 days! Check out the link for the Fall Foilage Network... http://www.foliagenetwork.com/reports/northeast_us/

Thursday, September 20, 2007

I spy the first snow...

Well ladies and germs, the 12UTC model runs just came out and let me tell you, they spell winter all over them. In recent days you may have heard me talking about NAO and AO which are forms of high latitude blocking. If you have no idea what that is you can look at my last blog and there is a link which will give interesting information. The current forecast of the NAO (north atlantic oscillation) is showing it going into a negative phase in time for October and the same thing with the AO (artic oscillation). When these two do this during this time of the year it means low pressure and colder temperatures.

The model that just came out forecasted nearly 16 days out and I would consider all of the information that far out USELESS. I'm just letting you know that this isn't exactly what will happen but it is giving a general overview of the future weather pattern. These models below are not accurate but it is Oh so fun to look at them.

This model below is for Friday October 5th, (GFS). This shows the temperature dropping nearly 40 degrees during a cold front with a rain changing to snow event, if this happened we could have our first accumulating snowfall of the season. (remember this is REALLY far out so things can and will change)

The next model is for Saturday the 6th of October (GFS) and it is showing high temperatures in the upper 20's with lake effect snow squalls. If this happened I think the local ski resorts like Mountain Creek could test their snowmaking system out. I'm not sure if they would do so this early in the season though. I do believe the first freeze is imminent though. (remember, this is FAR out so don't hurt me if it doesn't happen)

If you really care about this stuff keep an eye on the NAO and AO, if anything changes with those two then you can bet the models will change as well. The NAO and AO can be found below, they update daily by themselves. (If you don't know, the black lines show the past record of blocking and the red lines show the forecast)

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Long range forecast...

Yes, the long range forecast. I hate these, the only reason I do it is because it is cool to see if it comes true or not. Well here I go.

The next week should be August like and will be very NICE! We could even see one or two more days of 80's but after that we are done with 80's till next spring. So enjoy it! There is something very interesting that is making me go back to an old saying I use during the winters months "One extreme leads the another of the opposite". I believe that will most certainly happen too. It will be warm and dry for the next week and half to two weeks but then in time for October things will change dramactically!

The NAO and AO are types of high latitude blocking and if current projections are correction they will both tank in two weeks time. This will bring cold and weather pattern with it to the eastern US and maybe the first freeze event of the year. The models are not showing this yet but I bet they will in a couple days. Below is the link, check it out!


I know I said I would do a fall foilage blog but nothing really has changed just yet, I will be doing one in coming days.

Friday, September 14, 2007

Snow watch!

The mornings here in North West Jersey have been quite chilly as of lately. The 40's have been common and in coming days I wouldn't be surprised to see some 30's in the higher elevations of Sussex. As for North East Jersey, 50's have been common but that doesn't excite me. Urban heating and the ocean keep those areas much warmer. Now, everyone likes snow, right? GOOD! Let's talk about this magical four letter word. First I want to show you the la nina that is developing out in the pacific. This is a good indicator of cold weather and average precipitation to come.

Now we can move on to better things, one step at a time. North Atlantic Oscillation or (NAO) is a key factor in northeast snowstorms. In fact its the main ingredient as Paul Kocin would say who literally wrote the book on northeast snowstorms. Here is a link about NAO, its short and easy to understand. http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/NAO/ . As you read in there a negative NAO is what we look for when praying for coastal development, we are currently in a 30 year positive phase but in the last couple months we have struggled to get positive, maybe this is why we had a cool summer? This NAO is a very easy concept. Right now it is neutral to positive.

Now that we know the basics of the northeast snowstorms let's go to the models! The GFS is the only model right now that I have access to that is showing any signs of possible snow for here in NW Jersey, but things will most certainly change. This same model had a montana blizzard on it last week and showed cold air coming into the northeast, one of those two came true. Check it out, it doesn't actually show snow except for farther north. What if that cold push keeps coming down and that little clipper system brings precip? Hmmmmm? Lake effect too? Interesting.

That's all I have to show for now, tomorrow I will be posting a fall foilage blog to update you on the very latest. For those of you waiting for snow boarding season you might see this mountain snow covered sooner than you think!

Monday, September 10, 2007

Lake effect snow!

It's that time of the year again. The first snow of the season can be expected for the northern great lakes within the week. (as of the 18utc models) Do you really want to read what I have to say? Heck, look at the models for yourself!

(GFS, 4 days out) Ok, so its no 15 feet of snow, but its snow! So early in the season too.

(GFS, 5 days out) If this happens, we can expect temperatures in the 50's for NW Jersey and 60's for NE Jersey!

(DGEX model, 3 days out) Im lovin this one! Signs of snow!

Sunday, September 9, 2007

Winter 2007/2008 Outlook


The blog will contain two parts. The first will be the Old Farmers Almanac prediction and then my prediction for the winter season. Mine will be a general overview and explanations why it will be the way it is. The Almanac will go day by day telling you what the weather will be. Last years Almanac was almost completely wrong but other years it was right on. The Almanac is up to 80% correct!

THE OLD FARMERS ALMANAC- (Northeast only sorry)
1st-3rd. Wet weather in New England. Farther south, scattered showers, thunderstorms Labor Day holiday.
4th-7th. Fair, pleasant.
8th-11th. Hurricane threat for Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts. Thunderstorms sweep in from west, then clearing.
12th-15th. Fair skies.
16th-19th. Rain, then turning fair, coolers.
20th-23rd. Fair skies persist.
24th-27th. Thunderstorms rumble rapidly across region, then clearing, cooler conditions.
28th-30th. Fair skies, then scattered rain showers.

1st-3rd. Mostly fair.
4th-7th. Dry, windy weather.
8th-11th. Strong disturbulance sweeps east, with heavy rains for mid atlantic states. Stormy with gale-force winds (39 mph +) along New England coast.
12th-15th. Showers reach NY, Penn, and Northeast, accompanied by milder air.
16th-19th. Dry, milder, especially New England.
20th-23rd. Severe thunderstorms move in from west, then clearing, unseasonable cold, widespread frost.
24th-27th. Fair at first then turning unsettled.
28th-31st. Fair for trick-or-treaters.

1st-3rd. Fair skies.
4th-7th. Stormy weather developes over mid-atlantic states, early season snowfall possible then clearing, cold. Gusty wet for ING New York City Marathon.
8th-11th. Light snows rapidly sweep into New England.
12th-15th. Fair skies persist.
16th-19th. Squally condtions into mid-atlantic states, stormy New England, then clearing, much colder.
20th-23rd. Weather deteriorates by Thanksgiving. Fair at first, then turning wet, with rain mixed with snow in New England. Cold with rain Virgina, Maryland.
24th-27th. Mostly fair, cold.
28th-30th. Generally fair weather.

1st-3rd. Snow falls from the mid-atlantic states to New England, then clearing.
4th-7th. Becoming unsettled.
8th-11th. Cold and dry.
12th-15th. Another snow storm, with significant accumulations as far south as Maryland and Virgina. Then fair, cold weather.
16th-19th. Mostly fair.
20th-23rd. Snow from Penn, New York, to Maine. Then fair.
24th-27th. Dreaming of a white Christmas? Snow possible most areas.
28th- 31st. Stormy through New England, with a heavy, wintry mix. Rainy mid-atlantic states, then fair, cold.

1st-3rd. Unsettled. Showers in the Mid-Atlantic region, then turning fair and cold. Showers could fall on the Mummers Day Parade in Philadelphia.
4th-7th. Storm sweps through western sections of Penn, and NY, bringing gust winds and moderate-to-heavy precipitation.
8th-11th. Blustery and colder, with lingering clouds and scattered snow showers and flurries.
12th-15th. Mostly fair skies.
16th-19th. Wet weather, then turning fair and cold.
20th-23rd. Heavy snow for New England, with lighter amounts father south.
24th-27th. Most snow and flurries.
28th-31st. sharp cold front delivers snow and rain showers, followed by clearing and cold.

1st-3rd. Fair skies.
4th-7th. A sharp cold front brings gusty winds and showers of rain and snow.
8th-11th. Unsettled, with light snow and flurries.
12th-15th. Some lingering snow shower of flurries through Penn and NY into New England, then fair.
16th-19th. some snow or rain showers.
20th-23rd. Blustery and cold winds.
24th-29th. A big storm evolves out voer the ocean, perhaps giving the coast a glancing blow with some light snow, then turning fair.

1st-3rd. Fair skies.
4th-7th. Light snow or rain.
8th-11th. Showery weather possible, especially along the Mid-Atlantic region.
12th-15th. Scattered showers.
16th-19th. Unsettled weather, with mixed rain and wet snow, and gusty winds.
20th-23rd. Coastal storm brings more and precipitation for the very early Easter.
24th-27th. Shower for Virgina, Maryland to New England.
28th-31st. Yet another coastal storm! More wind, rain, and snow.


This might sound very boring to you but winter is likely to be a cold one across the northeast and this is because of a La Nina out in the pacific and we are at the end of the 11 year solar cycle, this mix with the right phase of high latitude blocking (NAO) spells coastal storm after coastal storm. Last year looked like a bad winter too but a El Nino developed and the first half of the season was rather pathetic.

Weather is a big cycle and the last time we were at the minimum solar cycle (95-96) NYC had over 80 inches of snow! That winter also dumped snow so deep in my yard here in northwest Jersey that my four foot pool was missing and the cars were blocked by 10 foot drifts! Let's see if winter makes a repeat of this great season.

This summer ended below average this year with
- 4 days of record low highs
- 4 days above 90 (way below average)
- 0 record highs
- high of 57 on 8/22 (october average)
- Science proved 1934 was hottest year ever (not 1998)
- Parts of Greenland never got above zero since last summer

I had much more of my outlook but the farmers almanac with was "unexpected" took the responsibility of being wrong off my head. Thank god. Cold weather and snowy conditions can be expected though. The artic is already losing 23 minutes a day and cooling down rapidly. Expect snow blogs to start SOON!

First Entry, the season begins.


North Jersey is one places that expierences the "4 seasons". My personal favorite time of the year is September-April. I live in northwest Jersey myself and I may tend to focus on weather here than the weather in the east, and I am sorry about that one. Weather can be quite different from where I live to near the city. In fact, the temperature is 4-8 warmer there than it is here. I am a global warming skeptic and trust me, I can put up quite an argument. Here are some of the things I will talk about in this region specific blog:

1. Fall foilage (from the fall folilage network)
2. Climate change debate
3. Northwest Jersey weather
4. Northeast Jersey weather
5. Model hype
6. Local ski resorts
7. Snow outlooks
8. Whatever else I find interesting

First blog entry: (Fall foilage)

September 8 , 2007

Welcome to the 2007 foliage season! Labor Day has passed, marking the unofficial end of summer and the beginning of our coverage of the fall foliage. This is The Foliage Network's ninth year covering the foliage in the Northeast.

The summer temperatures in the Northeast U.S. have been, on average, close to normal with departures from normal ranging from -2F to +2F. In portions of southern Vermont, western New York, northwest Pennsylvania, southeast Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey, it was slight warmer, with departures from normal in the +2F to +4F.

Analysis of three month (June-August) precipitation in the Northeast is also very close to normal, on average. A few areas of note include the Adirondacks in northern New York where the 3-month period was exceptionally dry (2.00" of precipitation or more below normal); moderately dry (0.80" to 1.29" of precipitation below normal) conditions in central Maine, southeast Vermont, western New York, central Massachusetts and portions of central Pennsylvania. In contrast, it was moderate moist (0.80" to 1.29" of precipitation above normal) in coastal Maine, northeast Vermont, southwest Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and Long Island, New York. Also of interest is the month of August, in which much of the Northeast was very dry. Let's hope we get some rain in September.

There is not much yet to report, as expected, at this early date in September. However, there have been reports of the typical early color in some young and distressed trees and in some of the "show-offs" which are those trees that change earlier than others on an annual basis. This is no cause for alarm and is not an indicator of early change. There have also been reports of many leaves turning brown and falling from walnut and poplar trees. Again, no cause for alarm as these species are not widespread in the Northeast.

This information provided by Marek D. Rzonca, The Foliage Network.

Here is a picture to show the current fall foliage in Northwest Jersey: (Not too much going on)