Sunday, February 28, 2010

History Is Being Made?

Well. I got finally got my snowstorm. The 8.5" inches of snow that I had on lawn turned into 31.5" inches in just a days time. Season totals in the higher elevations are now between 70"-90", more than what I thought. More than what anyone could have imagined. The thing is we still get snow in March, and even into April most years. It's not done yet.

First off here are statz of this winter season: (Netcong NJ)
Days Below Freezing -44
Season Total Snow - 77"
Days of Snow cover- 72
Days of Wintry precip- 32
Biggest Storm Total- 24.5" (Feb 25-28 still snowing now)
February Snow Total- 48" (That's Killington's Feb Average)
Longest Below Freezing Streak - Little over 300 hours!

And take a look at this drift, and that's me. In my camo, it's cause I always feel like I blend in with the trees when I'm boarding soft powder in the glades at Killington. Yeah, I do have some issues to work on.

Now on to the weather. Today snow squalls with being coming down out of the north and could produce some thunder. Anywhere from a trace to 2" could accumulate with the most in the higher terrain above 1,000 feet. (This is still the storm that dumped all snow since Thursday, just its part of that total)

Mountain Creek also has a 50"-60" inch base. Which is the highest that I personally have ever seen and just goes to show how much snow fell. I was walking just off the trail cause I fell in powder and the natural snow depth was up to my stomach on the north face of Vernon. That's 40" of natural stuff. These snow cover depths beat January 1996, and that's not easy to do. And snow melt will be slow and even more gets piled on.

Wednesday is our next possibility for snow. But as of right now does not look to good. It seems as if the low is going to go out to sea to far south for us to see anything more than flurries or a few snow showers. Of course the last storm shifted track on the models two days before! Let's see what happens to the system up in Maine early this week. Once that is out of the way the models will get a better grasp on the mid-week threat.

The fact is now that its March and most likely everyday will getting into the 40's in the coming weeks and 50's aren't too far off either. March comes in like Lion, but always seems to leave like a Lamb. And that should be the case this year. Remember this winter, because your going to talk and hear about for a very long time.

Check back this week for snow outlooks.

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Well, It's Going To Snow

First thing, just look at this: (OOz GFS)

When you hear claps of thunder don't be surprised. Winds will peak at the height of the storm and diminish as the low tracks right over us. I was going to go to Vermont, but it's going to rain there. This kind of storm doesn't happen very often.

Check out the snowmap. I had fun with this one. Of course that 24"+ will be somewhere, but it can still shift.

Enjoy the storm, cause it's going to be fun.

The Big Storm

It's 12:12 A.M on Wednesday and I cannot sleep. The reason is I realize that I am about to experience history. But let's recap winter so far.

The first snow was October 15th followed by the 16th, then the 17th, and then the 18th. Yes, it snowed four days straight in the middle of October. For the Second October in a row we had accumulating snow. Both years were followed by snowless and mild Novembers, but the year before had a HOT October and November brought a surprise 6-10 inch snowstorm on the 19th. Perhaps it's something of interest with long term weather patterns?

The total snowfall so far this year for my house is 52.65 inches, along with 68 days of snow cover and we are currently in a 29 day stretch of consecutive snow cover.

Like the graph? Yeah I get bored. Anyway, I have also had 44 days this season where my day high time stayed below freezing. The average per year is around 31. Last year we had 50, which I do not think we will beat. The lowest temp was January 10th at 6.6 degrees, not very impressive for a winter.

As I look outside I see a thick, thaw resistant snowpack. That's what it is, snowpack. It's been building up since January and has become so solid you can walk on it and only make a small impression in the snow. It's not going anywhere for a long time. And now we are going to add what could be several feet on top of it.

Just take a look here:

That's a blizzard with heavy snowfall measured in feet with hurricane force winds. This could be the storm of the century. Your going to experience history if this is the scenario that's going to happen, because this make January 1996 look like a walk in the park.

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Rough week ahead

Yesterday I said that by sometime today I will know exactly what's going to happen with the storms (more than one) this coming week. I lied. The models are still all over the place, and it doesn't look right to me. First off we will start off as snow, then as warmer air invades the upper air it will change to sleet and even some freezing rain in southern portions of the area. It will be a very active week, but does not look like it will bring any big snow totals to the area.

Now on Friday the storm will basically get swallowed up into New England, and they will be measuring the snow there in feet. Which is exactly why I will be going to Killington Vermont this coming weekend. The only thing is, all we need is a small shift in the storm track and things can play out much different.

I can't say with certainty or with high confidence what's going to happen just yet. It's a complicated pattern and one that will be interesting to see the outcome. Check back tomorrow.

Saturday, February 20, 2010


Alright well I won't be around for long today. So let me just give you the run down for this coming week. First off we have a warmer system moving through Monday-Tuesday, this will make for a heavy wet snow around 1,000 feet and mixing with rain will occur below that. And yes big accumulations may come out of that. Second we have a storm trailing right behind this one that will get caught in the polar vortex and will sort of be sucked in off the coast right back inland. A classic set up. The only problem is the models are not in agreement, and it's to messy of a set up to start calling for accumulations and when/where they will happen. Tomorrow sometime after noon I will post another blog, by then I should know exactly what's going to happen. It looks interesting to say the least, and any weather personal that tries to give you a forecast before then is taking a shot in the dark because this is not going to be easy to forecast.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Oh boy. An old theory of mine came true...

Check out this link on NE snowstorms. One of my old blogs.

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

It's not even close to over...

Today's little snow event brought my season total to 47 inches this season, which is nothing compared to areas south. The snowpack is back up a foot now and it's not going to melt very much, although it will melt some. Later this week the temperatures will reach the mid and upper 30's and many will be thinking that winter is coming to a close. They are wrong, and will get a taste of reality come next week. Arctic air will unload from the north and yes, a big snowstorm is in the making for early next week. Just check out the euro (Let's hope this isn't a mid-Atlantic special, cause we are the northeast!):

Monday, February 15, 2010

Clipper snow map

Ok, we have a nice little clipper moving on through the area tonight into the day tomorrow. Now this time northwest Jersey is the winner, not by much though. Elevation will play a role this time because lower areas will be near or above freezing, which is why accumulations near the city have been cut down. I can see how there are a lot of 4 inch and 4.5 inch amounts but the higher terrain will pick up at least 6 inches. While the snow will be brief toward the city it will linger on and off through day Tuesday north and west as the clipper tries to bomb out off shore. Good news is I can see how Killington gets foot of freshies, and since I have a season pass there that makes me happy!

Here is the total QPF over the area:

And here is my snow map for the event. The 6+ won't have to occur where I indicated, I was just trying to show that higher terrain in some areas will squeeze out half a foot. Other than that I think this map will work pretty well for everyone.

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Snow Snow Snow

We have a good chance at a nice little snow event Monday-Tuesday. Right now I would say it looks like a 3-6 inch event for our immediate area, but we can handle that. It's just a little dusting right? Anyway the purpose of this blog is what the 00z Euro model is showing at 216 hours out for the 22nd of the month. This could mark the end of this snowy and cold pattern, or just be an addition to snowmaggedon. It's still far out, but the GFS has been showing it as well:

Winter in the east next year may not be so "great" so enjoy this pattern while it lasts. By the way check out the current snow cover. It extend from the Canadian border to the Gulf coast, and that includes Florida! All 50 states currently have snow cover, wow.

Friday, February 12, 2010

Snowmaggedon Continues....

The deepest snow cover in the east right now isn't over Vermont, Maine, or even Mount Washington. It's over the Mid-Atlantic states, and that includes the nations capital. So far Washington D.C, Baltimore, Philly, Atlantic City, Delaware, South Jersey, South Eastern P.A, all of Maryland, and Northern Virginia all officially have their ALL TIME SNOWIEST WINTER on record going back to the late 1800's. It's normal for a city or two to break the record but an entire region? By this time tomorrow every single one the States will report snow cover on the ground. And that includes Florida! No doubt areas down there will also report all time season records, considering winter storm warnings extend into north Florida!!!

Here is the nations current snow cover:

Here is the southern snow storm:

And some people will be saying that more snow and cold is a sign of global warming. I say those people need to get theirs heads examined. Because no matter what happens with the weather, they say it's a cause of human induced global warming. It's complete lunacy, and as the world continues to cool they will find a way somehow someway to blame man.

Okay, enough of my ranting before I bore you to death. Let's talk more snow. Yes, it's coming again Monday night into Tuesday and it looks right now like a 3-5 inch event which we will add on top of our already deep snowpack. Check out the latest GFS run for the storm (needs to be watched closely for possible development):

Beyond this storm it looks like there is more to come. But let's take it one at a time? Snowmaggedon isn't letting up anytime soon and will continue right into March as the Arctic Oscillation is in the tank. I've never seen a weather set up like this before, this is a season people will talk about for years and years to come like the infamous 1996 and 1978. This is what the AO looks like:

Right now my town has 44"-47" inches of snow for the season (elevation depending), and today will mark day 41 of not getting above freezing. Last year we had 50 inches of snow and 50 days below freezing and we will break that in the coming weeks.

Remember if you ask nicely, the snow gods will provide!

Tuesday, February 9, 2010


Here is the NWS snowfall forecast map. Which I like very much, perhaps they are a little to conservative though: (White area inicates about 15")

Yeah, it's a blizzard

When I was a little kid I remember one storm that dropped over 3 feet of snow and brought gusty winds. It was the last "true" blizzard that my area has ever experienced. Sure we have had some BIG snows like the presidents day storm, December 2006, and a few others but this one may require Blizzard warnings to be posted for almost the entire state. Winds of 35 mph or greater with heavy snow and visibility below 1/4 mile is the definition of blizzard, and it will happen. IT'S A BLIZZARD!

Now areas in Maryland and Virginia like D.C. will have nearly four feet of snow on the ground by Thursday morning. Four feet? And that includes Philly. Something is going on with our atmosphere because by the weekend I expect the nation to have it's all time record snow cover. From the Canadian border all the way to the Gulf Coast. Yes that means the state of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, and south east Texas. And with no "thaw" for the next two week AT LEAST the snow won't melt, not here anyway.

The latest precipitation amount for all of North Jersey is well over 1.25 inches of liquid, and now factor 15:1 and 20:1 ratios. And don't forget to factor in elevation and banding. My estimate being 15"-25" inches with locally higher amounts. You like that? I do.

Snow map later

Yeah, it

Saturday, February 6, 2010

It's our turn now

Well, the storm stayed south of the forecast area this time. I measure 0.5 of inch while areas two miles north received not even a dusting. And the same time, areas two miles south of me got 3 inches. For every two miles you drive south just add an inch each time and thats basically what fell and where. In a few more days we may be talking about yet another blizzard, this time with the heavy snow further north.

The talk of this next "blizzard" is already underway because this could yield more snow than what was seen in this past storm but puts North Jersey as a whole in the bulls eye. Now it will produce less in the way of precipitation but snow ratios will equal 30 inches for each inch of liquid. It's still several days and things can always change, for better or for worse. Here is the lastest GFS which is in agreement with all operational models.

If you look above you can see the polar vortex centered over Virginia! What is going on? Seriously, this is not normal. The area of precipitation will not move in from the south or west but come right off the ocean from the east, and negatively tilted trough basically associated in part with a strengthening NAO.

Below is the map of the total liquid precipitation of this weeks storm. North Jersey is in the 0.90-1.20 range and yes, 30:1 ratios. You do the math. Check back soon.

Friday, February 5, 2010

Noaa's forecast

Here is NWS latest snowfall forecast. Of course any minor shift north or south will change amounts drastically.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Blizzard, but not for all...

With blizzard warnings down along the shore and winter storm warnings up everyone is bracing for a big snowstorm. Some places in SW Jersey could easily pick up 30" inches of snow and back into Washington D.C. and the Delmarva. Places in Mid Atlantic will pick up their record snowfall season of all time including the nations capital, and winter still has a lot to go. The northern edge of the storm will track over North Jersey, and the exact track can mean getting nothing or 18". Right now I'm going in between, here is the snow map below: (*Note: The wide range of accumulation amounts. Biggests totals in the range will over on southern boundaries of each interval, and minimal amounts north.)

Trust me, I don't like this map one bit. But I have a good feeling that is it relatively correct, although I may have to update it tomorrow morning. The GFS and the JMA are the ones that seem to make the most sense to me, so I'm going to side with them. Here they below:

Now that you have analyzed the maps above (you should), you notice that the storm track is off of the Virginia/North Carolina border which is not "prime" for the North Jersey. But we will be cold during the storm and snow ratios will be 20:1 while South Jersey has 10:1 ratios. If the system tracks slightly north there could be a second band of big snowfall across the northern area and in higher elevations, but a very skinny one at that. For this reason we must WATCH this closely because the amounts I forecasted could easily bust big time, and I mean they could double.

Below is the total QPF of the entire storm. Find out how much liquid falls over your area and do a 20:1 ratio if you live north of 78, 10:1 south of trenton, and 15:1 in between. What do you think? Comment!