Friday, January 22, 2016

Blizzard 2016

Well. I was wrong. The NAM was the only model showing BIG snow for the past several days and everyone laughed at it essentially. All the other models have now given into this idea, or at least mostly. This is now a major snowstorm for us. Historic? I'm not sure about that and honestly I don't think we know until Sunday. We are in that battle ground where the forecast is very rough. 

First off here is a look at the simulated radar from a high resolution model for tomorrow. The heavy mesoscale bands reach into most of the state and these suckers can drop snow upwards of 3" per hour! These bands will literally stall out somewhere near the top of the state before pulling south and back out to sea. Whoever gets these bands will see significantly more snow than those who miss out just by a few miles.

Okay, next up. The QPF or total liquid precip from the 18z NAM. It puts down nearly 2.5" of liquid over north Jersey. With snow ratios ranging from 12:1 to 14:1 it's staggering amounts of snow. I think this is overdone, but even if 1.5" of QPF falls that is still 18"+. No other models puts down nearly as much liquid so I am going to be conservative in my snow map. 

And here it is. The snow map. Yes I'm being conservative with these numbers. Any shift in storm track by just a few miles could mean nearly doubling your expected snowfall. Tomorrow is going to be rough with strong winds, white out conditions, drifting snow, and overall dangerous conditions STATE WIDE!

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Snow Storm January 22nd to 23rd

Yes, I know. I've been slacking off here on the blog. This winter has essentially been nonexistent until just recently, so I have finally come out of hiding. I'm sure you have heard A LOT of hype about a major snowstorm heading in our direction and I've issued my first map of the season!

First off the models have trended the storm south with previous runs along with their ensemble members. Ever since this system showed up on the maps I knew this would be the end result which is why I haven't even bothered posting about it. The high pressure to the north is just way to strong to allow the crippling snow fall to make it further north than Trenton. 

Better data will be coming in after mid night and my map will change, but as of now I don't think it will change much. A shift in the storm just 10 or 20 miles could mean doubling the numbers, or cutting them in half. I'm going to make another post tomorrow night with the last round of data and finalize my snow map. For now this is how I see it...