Saturday, February 21, 2015

Sorry for the lack of posts. I'm doing this from my phone at jay peak Vermont. I'll be back blogging next week. I'm heading out into the glades :)

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Winter just keeps on coming...

I'm so sorry. I wrote this on Sunday and realized I never hit the "Publish" button :(

We did manage to get about 2 to 3 inches of snow this weekend. Not exactly the biggest event but still it was something to add to our deep snow pack. Now the extreme cold is here and it's going to stay, and it's going to stay awhile. I don't see much relief in the next week honestly besides some days approaching the 20's for highs. That should feel like spring to us!

First snow event this week is for Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. Honestly this isn't going to have a huge effect on us in northern NJ, but still it's going to require us to break out the shovels again. The latest NAM is showing the total QPF for the event which is around 0.15" to 0.25". With temperatures in the teens for highs this means high ratio ratio snowfall on the order of 15:1 to 20:1. In my mind it's about a 2 to 5 inch event with more the further south you go.

Here is my first snow map for the event:

Beyond this system there are multiple other snow chances this week, some look like passing snow showers while others could bring some accumulation. Right now it's not clear whats going to come out of these systems and for now focus is on the storm for Monday night into Tuesday.

Monday, February 9, 2015

Winter Just Keeps On Coming...

All that hype with this Sun-Tues storm on TV had people frightened. I never jumped on board with this storm and even more forecast of a couple inches was to high! Most places just got a light coating of sleet and some snow flakes mixed in. It really wasn't all that bad today in NJ because all the precipitation went north of us, but there are more storms on the horizon...

First off a clipper system will be heading our way for Thursday and a secondary low will form off the coast. Right now it seems like the storm will intensify too late for NJ to see substantial snowfall, however New England could get another foot.

There still is some time to see how this storm evolves on the models but to me this looks like a minor event for NW Jersey for the time being. By the weekend we could be looking at another potential storm. More updates in coming days...

Friday, February 6, 2015


First off let's talk about this Sunday-Tuesday storm that people keep telling me about today. I keep getting forecasts from people about the big storm for next week. Yes, I explained to them that NJ was not in the main path of this system(s). Below is an image of the QPF of the whole system, and this is a storm for the Adirondacks, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and Maine. Looks like 10"-20" for them with possibly more in the higher terrain. NJ however looks to be on the southern edge of the precipitation, and therefore on the warm side. This leaves us with some rain, sleet, freezing, rain, and some snow. Right now it does not look like a significant event for NJ. I'm actually heading to Vermont shortly for some snowboarding so I'll be up in all this and won't be able to post until Sunday night. If anything does change I'll try to do a quick update from my phone. Worst case scenario we get 3"-6", but most likely just a few inches. 

In the wake of this system an Alberta Clipper comes down out of Canada into the northeast. Right now it appears to affect the same areas up north again but there is some error this many hours out and if the cold air pushes further south so would the precipitation. This system below is likely a minor event but the big story is what happens after this system moves off the coast.

You can see that clipper system from above of the right side of the image below over Nova Scotia. The winds once again from the NORTH. If you read all my previous posts you know that's our coldest flow in NJ. And this is some COLD stuff, in fact we could be looking at the coldest air of the winter and even some record breakers. Valentines Day is going to have highs in the single digits with lows well below 0. 

The longer range shows consistent arctic air with plenty of storm chances to come. Winter made a come back and it's here to stay. 

Check back Sunday night for updates...

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

More Storms Coming...

First off, it's apparent now that the systems for tomorrow never do phase at the right time for major snowfall over the northeast, instead it happens way out to sea. We see could see a coating of snow from the clipper system.

Now, the models are showing a very snowy pattern ahead next week. This part of the GFS and shows snow from Sunday through Tuesday. A long duration event with these impulses of energy with moderate snow. The thing we need to watch out for is one of these impulses trying to intensify into a much larger storm system. 

At this point the models are still all over the places with how much snow (or rain) falls. Right now we need to keep an eye on this interesting pattern for next week. Check back for more updates in the coming days. 

Monday, February 2, 2015

What's Next?

Well, the forecast for the last storm went very well. I had high confidence when I issued it and it verified perfectly. Couldn't have done better. So, what's next?

In the wake of this storm winds will get cranking from the north and northeast. The black lines show the direction and like I've said before, a north wind is our coldest. Temperatures will be in the single digits and around 0 tomorrow with the aid of a deep snow pack.

Cold air will be in abundant supply this week, so can we expect any more snow? The models are already catching onto something.

Most models like the GEM below show a system for Wednesday into Thursday. Well actually it's two different systems. One is a clipper coming out of the mid west and the other is a storm coming out of the gulf and trying to ride up the coast. This model misses the phase between the two systems and they do their own thing and we end up with a light snowfall of a couple inches from the clipper. Had these systems hooked up with each other we could be talking about significant snowfall.

Below are two separate panels of the EURO. It too has both systems in the first panel, but if you scroll down to the second panel it phases these two systems together. The EURO suggests a monster low forms off the northeast coast and dumps 6"+ over a wide area. This type of set up can really provide a nice snow event, IF the timing is right on the phasing of the systems. We just need to give the models a few runs to see what happens with this. 

Beyond this system another potential storm threat for next Sunday into Monday, but let's not get to far ahead yet. Take this one at a time.

Sunday, February 1, 2015

Snow Map

Well, my forecast over the last week has come out pretty good. Now let's see how my forecast for this storm turns out. I have pretty high confidence for this one unlike last week.

First off lets check the soundings:

These soundings are for the I-80 corridor from various models. Now most show it being all snow except for the NAM in the middle which has a weak inversion for about 3 or 4 hours during the height of the event. This would result in more ice, but the general consensus is it stays just cold enough in NW Jersey.

This snow is going to fall fast and most of it falls in the first half of the event. There is going to be an area with a lot of ice somewhere between interstate 80 and 78 which could take down branches and power lines. Let's hope for the best.