Tuesday, September 30, 2008


September 2008:

1st- 78.6/52.2 0.00" Very nice labor day!

2nd-83.8/56.9 0.00" Warm and sunny!

3rd- 83.0/63.4 0.00" Warm and pleasant! July?

4th- 86.7/63.1 0.00" Hot and humid!

5th- 84.5/65.3 0.00" Hot and humid again!

6th- 74.4/65.5 2.90" Very Humid and tropical storm hanna!

7th- 75.8/59.5 0.00" Sunny and nice

8th- 75.8/55.4 0.00" Nice and sunny day!

9th- 68.8/61.6 0.84" Morning T-Storms with showers rest of day

10th-66.8/52.2 0.00" Sunny and cool

11th-68.4/54.5 0.00" Mostly cloudy and nice and cool

12th-64.8/59.6 0.24" Light rain most of the day

13th-77.2/64.3 0.00" Nice day with a late night sprinkle

14th-84.3/69.3 0.00" Very hot and humid and sunny

15th-77.6/60.4 0.00" Hot and nice

16th-65.2/53.6 0.00" Mostly cloudy all day and cool

17th-68.9/47.4 0.00" Mostly sunny all day and nice

18th-68.3/50.5 0.00" Mostly sunny and nice

19th-60.7/46.5 0.00" Chilly but nice with a few clouds

20th-65.5/42.8 0.00" Partly cloudy and nice

21st-75.3/46.2 0.00" Hot and sunny!

22nd-67.6/51.7 0.00" Mostly cloudy but nice

23rd-66.4/48.6 0.00" Partly cloudy all day and warm

24th-67.4/45.8 0.00" Mostly sunny with a few clouds

25th-60.4/48.6 0.00" Mostly cloudy then turning windy and rainy

26th-61.4/52.3 1.09" Rainy most of the day

27th-67.6/60.2 0.02" Mostly cloudy with a sprinkle

28th-68.8/62.7 0.69" Showers all day and cloudy

29th-65.6/53.2 0.00" Mostly cloudy all day with morning sprinkles

30th-67.4/50.4 0.00" Partly cloudy and warm

September rain= 5.78"

High:2147.0/30 = 71.566
Ave: 73.8

Low:1663.7/30 = 55.456
Ave: 48.9

Temperature 63.511
Ave: 61.35 +2.161

New Jersey Black Bear

Check out this picture I got of these black bear in Netcong NJ, two cubs and the mother bear on September 29th, 2008 at 6:00 p.m! The one cub barked at me while I was looking at him up close in my car, it sounded just like my little Bichon Frise I have back at home. The cutest things you'll see in your life! I can't believe I just used the word cute in my blog for everyone to see... wow

Friday, September 26, 2008

Fall color is showing!

So far this year the fall color has been very slow to start but in the past two days we have seen atleast a 10% increase in color and peak color is about 2-3 weeks away. Here is a current picture taken at only around 850 feet in elevation.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

First freeze and snow?

The 6UTC model runs just came out and the GFS is showing are first feeze, during the first couple days of the month. This event has be consistent on the models for a week now and I even posted on it just a few days ago if you look below. If the GFS is right on October 4th you can expect upper 30's for high temps and shattered snow showers and snow squalls. Now I'm not saying this is correct because its still 7 days out but it seems that the first freeze for Warren, Western Morris, and Sussex counties will be next week which marks the end of the growing season. As for the first snow, I doubt it, not for northwest Jeresy anyway but right off the great lakes looks pretty good! (Winter is coming)

Click for bigger image:

Funny Hippy Video

This is a MUST SEE video. You will laugh your socks off!

Global Cooling Is Coming

When we talk about climate change most people think about man made C02 spewing into the atmosphere but that has very little or anything to do with it. The real concern of climate should be focused on what the sun is doing! I actually read an article ( http://environment.newscientist.com/article/dn14724-antarctic-sea-ice-increases-despite-warming.html) yesterday that said the Antartica sea ice extent has been so large (record) because of global warming caused by man, so offically global warming causes global cooling, and drought, and flooding, la nina, el nino, and some are blaming earthquakes on global warming believe it or not! (http://www.livescience.com/environment/070830_gw_quakes.html). Come on, next you will be hearing about manbearpig and crab people.

The main driver behind abrupt climate change is due to the sun! During the past 100 years solar wind, geomagnetic activity, and solar cycles have been very strong which would explain most of the .8 degrees of warming we have expierenced in the past 150 years. The only problem is now that we are very close to Dalton Minimum (http://sesfoundation.org/dalton_minimum.pdf) type activity from the sun which was one of the main causes of the Little Ice Age. In fact you can read up on the current solar cycle state and it's implication here (http://www.warwickhughes.com/agri/Solar_Arch_NY_Mar2_08.pdf)

Anyway the current solar cycle 24 has yet to make an appearance which has caused the solar to drop off big time allowing more cosmic rays from outside space to enter the inner solar system. They hit our atmosphere and create nucleation sites for cloud dropplets to form an with more clouds the suns already weakened energy is reflected back out into space which causes cooling. If the sun doesn't wake up soon some suggest the global temperature will drop by an average of 2 degrees celcius within just a few years!
See figure 1 on the solar wind: Note click the image so bigger version.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Recap of last winter

Just getting ready for the upcoming winter by going over what happened last winter:

Snow: (Note excluding the past two winters Netcong average snow was 81 inches)

Ave Actual
Nov-1.90" 6.00" (+4.10)
Dec- 7.30" 10.75" (+3.45)
Jan- 14.00" 5.25" (-8.75)
Feb- 8.00" 15.13" (+7.13)
Mar-5.90" 0.55" (-5.35)
Arp- 2.10" o.00" (-2.10)


As for snow we fell about 1.5" inches below the 200 year average but as for our decade average we fell short by around 43 inches.


Nov- 39.35 (-1.95)
Dec- 30.87 (-.78)
Jan- 29.59 (+2.8)
Feb- 28.90 (Ave)
Mar- 37.46 (+1.11)

Ave:32.17 (33.23) +1.06

As for the average winter temperatures we were about one degree warmer than the winter (Nov-Mar) average.

Monday, September 22, 2008

It's fall for sure

Well the long range GFS has been hinting at cooler weather coming our way and actually the 6UTC model had the polar vortex coming down out of the Arctic and bringing us our first snow but thats a long shot. After many years I have learned NOT to trust the GFS more than 6 hours out. (That was a joke) We won't be seeing our first snow anytime soon but we could be seeing our first freeze in Sussex and the higher elevations of Morris County during the first couple days of October. The model has been very consistent with it over the past few days and I give it 60% chance of happening. Check it out, click the image for bigger version!

Friday, September 19, 2008

Back in action...

Good day ladies and gentlemen! After only posting a few times over the summer I am finally getting back into action. Farmers almanac has come out to say that this winter for our area should be colder/snowy than average and it could be a trend that continues for the next decade do to fact that our sun is still showing no signs of sunspots. Everyday our sun remains inactive there is a net loss in energy reaching our atmosphere, and also the solar wind slows down allowing more cosmic rays to enter our atmosphere. For those of you who don't know cosmic rays are charged particles that originated from a star that has ripped itself to shreds, you may call it super nova but I call it suicide. Anyway these cosmic rays enter our atmosphere and create more nucleation sites which is where cloud droplets can form and with more clouds more of sun's life giving energy is bounced out back into the vaccum of space. My next blog will be posted within a few days all about the climate crisis we face if the sun does awake within atleast the next year.

And did you notice? Fall is here! Well not for a few more days but my high temperature today reached a balmy 60 degrees and tonights low should get down to around 40. The trees back in August in Sussex county had a lot of color going on but since then 5" inches of rain has fallen in the first week of September and tropical storm Ike took those colored leaves right off the trees putting us with very little change going on now. You can expect some nice fall foliage pictures in the coming weeks as well!

Well it is tradition on my blog to start off the season with the winter outlook! That will be coming up the first week in October, mainly because I don't feel like doing a lot of researching right now and I have loads of homework. I do have a little hint for you though go back to my March 27th blog about the big snowstorms that hit our area and read up. http://meteomaddness.blogspot.com/2008/03/noreaster-2009.html

I also like to wish my blog it's 1 year birthday tomorrow! Well, I have been writing blogs for two years plus but that was on myspace and I left due to the amount of spam I was getting whenever I posted.

Another thing I will be going over in this blog to get everyone ready for winter is the NAO, AMO, AO, PNA, and etc... You get the point, a bunch of random letters right? Well some of these expecially the NAO has huge say in what our winter will be like.

Anyway I would love to sit here and talk all day but within in the next few weeks expect:
-NAO discussion
-Winter Outlook
-Fall foliage pictures
-Solar output
-Recap of last winter
-Farmers Almanac forecast
-Perhaps first frost of the season?
-Perhaps first New England snow!? (We will start snow blogs October 1st)