BATTLE OVER

The battle has ended the EURO is now agreeing with the GFS and DGEX. A Northeast snowstorm is likely for the 3rd of January, let's just hope that rain/snow line is off to the east of us here in Jersey. More updates as the storm reaches 144 hours out.

Battle still going

I don't have much time today, but I just checked the models the the DGEX, GFS are up against heavy weight champion EURO. The Euro shows a rain storm for us here in Jersey but the GFS and DGEX have gone to wintry weather.

Here is the Euro model, as of 12:23 it's yesterdays model but it will update by atleast 3:00 today. I wont be around so it's up to you! If you see an area of low pressure along the east coast with the second blue color over the area than the Euro went over to snow! If the low remains over the mid-west and we stay in the warm colors than we have rain. (This will update by itself right here on the blog so check back soon! And click for bigger image)

Battle begins...

European caught onto the storm but shows a track not favorable for a major eastern snowstorm, its the GFS vs. EURO right now and the score this season is in favor for the EURO 20-1. Let's hope the GFS is right, I can't stand more rain...

EURO model, shows mid-west snow and eastern rain:

Ill will try to update as much as possible but unfortunately Rangeley Maine is in the middle of NOWHERE.... But it's awesome!

Consistency = Likely

When it comes to computer weather models consistency in a certain event is what meteorologists look for. A consistent trend is hard for the models to do but with this storm on January 3rd the models, on every run, are showing the same thing time and time again. And that's rare, especially for the GFS. By tomorrow night and Saturday morning the EURO will start to pick up on this storm at 168 hours out and it will be the ice breaker. If the EURO shows the same as the GFS and is consistent then I can safely say that chances are, on January 3rd, we may see a WHOPPER of a snow storm! Why is this?


18z GFS run:

Interestingly, I see two possibilities here. The first one is a negative tilted trough with a storm that gets talked about in text books and remembered for years to come. When a storm gets caught up in a negative titled trough (Like Oct 28th of this year) amazing things happen. Or the second being the lack of cold air with this system and it's just rain maker. When the EURO model starts to forecast this storm (not for another day or two) , it will be the ice breaker, and then I will get a much better picture. Until then, I will be waiting anxiously till the 12z model tomorrow and the 00z model Saturday. It's like Christmas presents all over again, you never know what your gunna get! :)

NAO indices:

This is the North Atlantic Oscillation, and it is the largest influence on the weather here in the North East United States. When it's negative we get cold and storms, when it's positive we have warmth and sunny skies. So you can imagine that the last two winter were mostly positive, and they were! But you look at a year like 1996 which was mostly negative and the big picture comes to life. This image above is embeded directly from NOAA and updates daily on it's own so you can come back to this blog to see how it changes from day to day. The black represents the past, and the red is what forcasted. When it goes negative expect cold and snow this time of the year, and notice it's highly negative for our January 3rd storm... interesting stuff, let's see how it all holds up.

Storm still on the maps

Here is the 18z run of the GFS. This model has been VERY consistent on the storm for Jan 3rd and cold air mass in place. This gives me more faith but it's still really far out on the models. I don't really see anything of interest until then so for now, it's a boring weather pattern.

18z GFS (Click for bigger image):

I will be going to Maine for one week for some snowboarding up at Saddleback Mountain and Sugarloaf USA. I may not be able to post everyday but I will sure try!

Predictions cometh true?

Long Range:

Ok, well in my long ranger I talked about how the weather is going to be, well, boring until perhaps January 1st-5th. I now see a BIG storm coming up for around the 3rd-5th (one of those days) and it looks LIKELY to happen. But, will it be rain, sleet, or snow?

This is what is looks like on the GFS: (Click for bigger image)

















This is what our new weather pattern is going to look like that should last around six weeks. It will go from very warm, then a storm will move in bringing with it cold air. Now, will the storms be snow for our region or rain? That's the big question! But this being the "start" of the pattern could give us a sign of what the majority of our winter will bring. Ofcourse it's way too far out right now but this will be the focus of my blog in the coming weeks...


Short Range:

It's not looking to good. There will be some cold for night snow making and perhaps a flurry or two here and there but it seems likely nothing will happen till January :(


P.S. December is running +4.3 inches of snow above so far and -.20 degrees below average.

Current storm

Well I woke up and looked at the radar and the storm blew up to late, to far out to sea. This means that 4-7 I predicted was a total bust. I saw this happening on the models last night but I didn't want to believe it...

By the way, happy first day of winter!

Long Range till January

This is my attempt at long range forecasting, I'm still new at it and it's only experimental methods I'm using.

Let's start closer to present day and move on.

12/24-25: It looks to be a wet Christmas rather than white :(

12/26-31: It looks like a seasonable pattern with a new years rain storm

1/1-5: We could see a shot of nice cold and prehaps a storm?

1/5-15: The pattern will shift, some say it will be extremely warm. Although I do believe we will have an EXTREME thaw in January I believe a big storm may come out of the clash of air masses.

1/15-30: As of that far I would just be guessing, or lieing, which ever you want to believe. Anyway, I do think that the BEST conditions of the season are NOW! So go to the resorts ASAP. The north Jersey snowpack could reach up to 20 inches in the Mountains after tomorrows storm. Go out, have fun, and enjoy the Vermont like conditions. They won't last long.


P.S. Monday will be the coldest day of the winter so far. Sussex county highs will be 12-16 degrees and lows from 4-9. Keep warm!!!!

Snowmap for Dec 21st

This next system coming in will bring 4-7 inches across Sussex county with higher amounts in the highest elevations. The snowmap may need some revising as time goes on but it's a good illustration of whats to come. The problem with this storm is the lack of precip and it's a quick mover, but this one should remain all snow.

Here is the NAM model for Sunday's storm:

Let's move on to Christmas storm, although it's not good news. As of right now it looks like the storm will be mostly rain. The only thing is the models just 4 days ago showed a storm on the 19th being rain, and we all know it was snow so things can always change.

How much snow did you get in your area? Any questions or comments? Let me know! Have an awesome weekend and check back often.

Round 1 over

Well, what an amazing storm! Netcong picked up 7 inches of the white stuff which brings the season total to 15.15 inches! We should be well on our way to 70+ inches this year with 55+ inches in the Valley of Sussex county. I was snowboarding most of the day and I would estimate the bottom fo Creek got 6.5 inches and the top had well over 10 inches. It was amazing!

As for tomorrow snow showers will be around and snowmaking will go round the clock! I don't suggest going to Creek tomorrow because it will be VERY crowded. Try going at around 5:00 at night when everyone leaves, or go Sunday night. The Sunday storm looks to be all frozen precip but more mixing could go on, but it seems that the area will get 4-8 inches. Check back tomorrow morning, I will post a snowmap and some m0dels!

Have an awesome weekend!

Snowmap

Well here is the snow map! You like it? It's a little odd, but I think it gets the point through. I am thinking that places above 1,000 feet north of I-80 get 8-12 inches of snow.

The parade of storms has begun and will continue for the foreseeable future. I promised a snowy December, and that will come true after this week. Enjoy and check back every so often for updates! I'll be snowboarding POWDER tomorrow so it might be a late post about the Sunday storm.

-Any questions or comments? Ask! Enjoy the snow.

JFK Friday Morning

This is for one of the blog readers!

Here is a skew-T- Diagram for JFK airport Friday morning.


















This is based off of the 18z run of the GFS and shows all snow falling. The air according to the models over JFK during most of the storm is marginal so you might luck out with lower snow accumulations over that area. If the storm shifts slightly (I'm talking 20 miles) then you have 10 inches of snow at JFK. I'll update tomorrow with the new model runs, check back in! I hoped this helped!

Wow....

Well storm number 1 has moved through bringing northwest Jersey up to 3 inches (2.25 in Netcong). Mostly higher elevations got the snow, which is no surprise. Let's move on.

Storm # 2 comes Thursday into Friday, and it's looking interesting. It's going to come in the form of heavy snow for hours on end with precip amounts (liquid) of 1-2 inches. If we do the usual 1 inch of rain = 10 inches of snow, factor in some mixing, northwest Jersey could be looking at 10-15 inches of snow. It's not offical yet so check back tomorrow!

Check out the NAM:

Storm # 3 comes in Sunday into Monday but looks less favorable than storm 2, but things can change over the next few days. It does seem as if accumulation is possible.

Storm #4, yes a fourth within ONE WEEK come Christmas eve. It's too far out right now to tell what type of precip it will bring, but with cold air lingering, it could be more frozen stuff!

It's and active week coming up, check back in tomorrow!!!

Euro shows major snowstorm

This weekend will be a not one but two storms. On the 20th Storm number 1 will come through and bring mostly a rain event will a mix on the north side. This storm is mostly a rain maker, but storm number 2 on the 22nd could be a major snowstorm. The GFS and DGEX are going with a warmer solution but the EURO is showing a massive Nor' Easter going up the coast laying down significant snowfall. Before I am going to jump to conclusions I want to see consistency in the model runs, but for now, let's not get excited just yet.

EURO: (Click for bigger image)

This is 101

Well this is my 101st blog since I switched from myspace to blogspot last year! Things are getting interesting now, and I'm not sure what to think.

First off we are under a winter storm watch! Believe it or not, cause it did get to 60 across the lower elevations of Sussex and mid 50's above 1000 feet. That's warm! this is what the national weather service is saying: "

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 PM EST MON DEC 15 2008
NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-162100-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-
335 PM EST MON DEC 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WINTRY WEATHER EVENT IS LIKELY STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC AIR
BEHIND IT AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COUPLE OF PRECIPITATION SURGES ARE FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR PRECIPITATION
TO FALL AS SLEET AND SNOW. AS MORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN, ITS POSSIBLE
THAT PRECIPITATION MIGHT CHANGE TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY EVENING. THE
PROCESS IS THEN EXPECTED TO REVERSE ITSELF LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN OR JUST END AS
WEDNESDAY CONTINUES.

THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WINTER
STORM WARNING CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET MIGHT ACCUMULATE ALONG WITH A GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS CONTINUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WOULD START
IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE ON TUESDAY AND HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE ALSO.

PLEASE USE THE TIME PRIOR TO THE EVENT TO MAKE THE NECESSARY
PREPARATIONS."

Looking at the models I'm having a problem seeing what they are seeing because there is no snow showing up! But the soundings are showing an interesting trend. I'm going to show you a neat little trick:

1. On the right hand side of the page under useful weather models click soundings

2. Under Step 1 pick GFS

3. Under Step 2 select how many hours out, GFS does 6, 12, 18, 24 etc

4. Under Step 3 pick skew-t diagram

5. In Step 4 type in k12n (Sussex airport code)

6. Then Click go make sounding!

Well you get this: (Click for bigger image)

It may seem hard to read but the bottom of the chart is the surface of earth where we live and the higher on the chart represents the higher in the atomphere. This actually shows the temperature! If the upper atmosphere is below 0 and the surface is below 0 than it can snow outside! If it's above, depending how much, you get freezing rain, sleet, or just plain rain. The blue line represent temperature and the Skew-T above is a snow sounding for 9:00 A.M tomorrow morning...

To be honest, I see how the higher elevations get a little snow, but something seems very wrong to me about this whole storm. We could wake up tomorrow surprised, or we could wake up very disappointed. At this point, I would encourage you to try looking at weather models, soundings, and the NOAA winter weather outlooks. All this can be found on the right hand side of my page. The models come out at 00utc (mid night) 06utc(6 AM) 12utc(noon) 18utc(6 PM), try it! If you have any questions or comments on anything feel free to email or comment, I'll try my best to help you!

Oh yeah, and LONG RANGE:

Remember that storm I was talking about around the 20th? Well the GFS shows a nice snow storm on the coast, but the Euro shows a very similar storm to what happened this past weekend. As of now I'm going with the Euro because it has been the most accurate so far this season...

Quick Update

After looking at the models nothing seems to have changed since Friday! Consistency tells me that the models are most likely being accurate. Ill take you through the the weather for the next two weeks:

1. The start of the new week will bring more warmth and rain

2. The mid-week to end of the week will bring seasonable conditions with very little snowmaking opportunities. Some rain and higher elevation wintry precip is possible, although nothing to get exited so by any means.

3. Around the 20th a storm will come up the coast and could be very impressive. The only problem is the cold air is lagging behind the storm and may be mostly a rain event with snow showers on the back side.

4. After that storm moves through cold air will be put in place for the Christmas break allowing for much needed snowmaking for the resorts. Maybe we could get some snow out of that cold but considering this pattern we may have to wait till January...

This week is going to be a difficult one for me to do updates, but if the long range changes I will let you know ASAP!

Here we go again...

First off take a look at what happened in the highest elevations of northwest Jersey. It was amazing! Half an inch of freezing rain:

Mountain Creeks high temperature for Saturday should only make it to 26 degrees allowing for them to rebuild the base that they lost in the previous rain/ice storm. As of now Creek is covered in a thick accumulation of ice which forced them to close down this week but will be able to open once conditions become safe and power is back on.

Longer Range:

Well after a cold start to the begining of the week it looks like things will warm back up for 4-7 days as a trough will settle in the west for the first time this winter and a ridge over the east.

GFS 18z showing warmth up the coast:

And for snow, I dont see much hope of anything until around the 20th but you know what these models are like. Its something to watch but don't get to exicted.

GFS 18z run:

DGEX run similar:

Remember, winter is far from over, in fact it actually hasn't started yet! We have a lot of winter to go, just check that in mind. What we need is a pattern change...

Wow!

Take a look at this radar shot. That is very heavy rains!

As for snow, the models are not looking very favorable with the 18z runs. Check back tomorrow, hopefully something will show up.

I'm back

Sorry for the lack of blog posting as of lately. Usually I update everyday or every other day with the very latest but I have just not had the time with all this work building up before the end of the year.

Well one thing seems for sure about this storm system coming up the coast as I write this. The models busted, all models except the European which has been doing fantastic this year. Some colder air will come down into our area later tonight changing the rain to freezing rain, then to sleet, and then to snow mainly across the highest elevations. Don't expect much in the way of accumulation though, it seems as if this pattern we are in has both cold and storms but they do not coexist at the same time and place. This may be a view of what is to come until the pattern shifts in January.

I'll update later tonight with model runs.

A Storm Lurks...

This past weekend has certainly been cold and we did manage to pick up a little bit of snow as well! Snowmaking has been non stop at the resorts and they are now open. Come Tuesday and Wednesay a storm will come up the coast and bring a mostly rain event with a little mixed precipitation on the front end but nothing to get excited for. Then it get's interesting after that as colder air will be in place and a second storm moves up the coast for Thursday into Friday. All models are currently showing snow except the Euro model, and the fact that the Euro isn't showing it makes me a bit skeptical if it's going to be rain or snow. One thing for sure is that the back side of that storm will get 6-10 inches of the white stuff, and right now the models are showing northwest Jersey in that area! Check out the models:

DGEX:




















GFS MODEL:



















After this storm it looks like we will see a 4-6 day warm up followed again by colder air for the holidays. Check back in for updates all week long!

Live from NYC!

New York City is where you can find me today, at none other than the tree lighting! (Look for me on TV!) I bet you want to know about Mountain Creek status and snow/cold, correct?

Mountain Creek:

Well, as I thought, they pushed back their opening date to the 13th which should be actually be an AWESOME opening because north and south should open with ample terrain! Snowmaking will resume Friday and go non stop through the weekend and some natural snow will fall adding to the base for opening day! It's going to be an amazing December with trails rising quickly.

Snow:
There is nothing major to talk about snow wise right now as cold air will dominate the region but for Friday a front will passing through and some of us above 1,000 feet may pick up some minor accumulations adding to the 6-14 inches we have already had so far this season. At lower elevations and dusting is possible. As for Sunday of this weekend a clipper system will come through and could also put down a few inches at the highest elevations but overall lower accumulations, although I have seen these storms explode at the last second upping the snow amounts.

GFS (Sunday)

EURO (Sunday):

COLD SNOWMAKING AIR?:

It does get cold and stays in a cold weather pattern till Christmas, a warm up is possible for the holidays but cold will return. Personally I believe we will see a pattern reversal the first week of January toward mild and stormy conditions. Remember don't kill the messenger.

COLD AIR:

I'm back, and so is the cold

For one I would like apologize for my absence this past week. I have been overloaded with work and never got the chance to update. Unfortunately I have limited time today so things will be short.

For one, our storm Sunday was mostly rain with a high temperature of 34! That's a close call and I must say, I didn't see that coming. Interestingly enough that storm tracked way out to our west and brought up more mild air (though still below average) for early week but the cold air is building across the north and will come through this weekend. This will allow snowmakers to go on full blast adding to the snow made back in November and this will allow for the resorts in our area, including Mountain Creek to open for the second week in December.

Snow:
Besides frontal systems, some lake effect, and clipper systems (which will dominate this month) I don't yet see any potential threat for major snow. Most of our snow comes from coastal storms or "Nor'easters" but the cold will over our region will make any system go off to our south. We need slight break from the cold this month to get a big storm, I do believe December will still be cold and stormy, but will it be snowy?

I will update later tonight or tomorrow if I get a chance! Feel free to comment the blog or email for any questions. Later!

The storm....

Tuesday the weather models were showing a nice storm coming up the coast and bringing us our 2nd major snowstorm of the year, but Thanksgiving brings a new solution. The GFS model originally showed rain coming up the coast with some snow west of the mountains and the Euro was showing a nice snowstorm for our area. The Euro has been 99% accurate this season so far but it looks like the GFS was right, which seems odd to me.

Here is what the NCEP models are saying: (Click for bigger image)

And the Euro model: (Click for bigger image)

While most the models are showing rain, and a lot of it, things can always change but the prospects look dull. I will be staying up late tonight to see what the 00Z model runs show, so if anything changes I will post again!


In the longer range, we remain below average temperature wise and VERY stormy. Some models aren't showing the extreme cold that the Euro is showing but I believe snow making will continue during the night time hours next week and with shots of arctic air coming down every now and then allowing for some daytime snowmaking as well.


THE BIG QUESTION: WILL CREEK OPEN DECEMBER 6TH?

I have been asked this so much and personally, I thought they would have been able to open this weekend. I had 156 straight hours of "good" snowmaking conditions at my house last week where the wet bulb temperature didn't get above 25 degrees. I don't have very much expierence with snowmakers (Yes I do have some) so I really am not one to say. If this storm comes in Monday with the rain that only gives Creek a few days of cold to work with and then they need to groom the slopes. I don't think they are going to do it. The 12th or 13th seems to be when they will be able to open and that's a good 80% chance, but the chance of them opening the 6th is only around 10%. Maybe they can do it, but I doubt it, they have a too limited time frame.

Now that's what I'm talking about :)

Well this morning is an all out war between the models for Monday. One one side we have the Canadian, Euro, and Ukmet while the other side has the nortorious GFS, DGEX, and NOAGAPS. The CMC, Euro, and Ukmet all show a massive snow storm followed by EXTREME cold while the other side shows a smaller storm bringing a mix and moderate cold following. As of lately the Euro has been accurate and when ever I go against it I lose, but the GFS always burns me. Here is a look at some of the models that are showing the big storm (click for bigger image):

EURO:

Ukmet:

Canadian:

Here is my forecast for Union NJ (Tasha this is for you! also check keancast):

For everyone else not in Union NJ, it seems that the Monday storm, if it comes, could be an all snow event for northwest Jersey followed by extreme cold. Now hopefully the Euro is right and the GFS isn't, I would like to see all the models come into agreement before I make anything offical. Because of this I give a 55% chance of this storm bringing some serious snows into the area! I will update all weekend long, this is me in storm mode...

Update on early week

Before I get started with talking about Monday-Tuesday weather event let me just tell everyone that if you plan on doing anything outside tomorrow you might want to reconsider. Tomorrows atmosphereic thickness value will get down to 503 and that's only rare in January but UNHEARD of in November. Ofcourse it is November so expect temperature to struggle into the upper 20's, if this was January it would be one of those days with a high of around 8 degrees. Let's move on to the storm...

It seems that everyone else Weather.com/Accuweather/NOAA, and most TV meteorologists are calling for mostly a rain event for our area but for some reason and I wasn't seeing that. I was seeing mostly snow, but I may have been wrong. Let's check out some issues.

1. The first is something called cold air damning. This happens when the east is under a cold air mass then a warmer air mass moves in from the west, because cold air sinks into the lower elevations it gets trapped, this actually happened a lot last year with sleet and ice events. You might ask how the cold air get's trapped? Well we have a chain of mountains going from Alabama into Maine and the cold air usually get's stuck on those east slopes from an extended period of time (that's us).

2. The GFS (our governments model) is showing some nice snows for our area: (Click for bigger image)

3. And the atmosphereic sounding form K12N (Andover airport) shows mixed precip, but the elevation there is only 583 feet so this means areas above 1,000 would get all snow.

4. Now here is the bad thing. I have been saying that European is the best out there and whatever it says is extremely accurate. It shows the system cutting into the lakes and bring us some mixed precip on the front end with the cold air damning, then some rain showers, and finally ending as a little snow. We still have more model runs and the short range models have not picked this up yet because it's too many hours out. Here is the Euro, because of this one model the precentaged on nice snows in my opinion is down to 23%, things can always change.

I will update later today after the 6:00 models come in. Cross your fingers.

P.S. If this storm doesn't work more cold air will follow with low pressure systems! Get excited :)

Early week snow?

Oh, yeah. My favorite model, the European that is, is showing a nice little system coming in for the Monday-Tuesday time frame. All other models including the GFS has now come to agree with the Euro. I check the atmosphereic soundings for K12N (Andover airport) and right now it looks as if the storm will remain mostly snow, if the soundings are correct. If indeed the models are all correct I would say 2-4 inches for Warren, Sussex, and Morris counties with 3-6+ over 1,000 feet in elevation. Check out the Euro: (As always click for bigger image)

Now I give a 55% chance of happening right now cause I would like to see the short range models catching onto this as well. Check back for more everyday!


P.S. The long range looks AMAZING!!! December is going to be the peak of the ski season! :)

Snowmaking round the clock!

Well it's 6:38 and I just got home from school. As I checked my weather station today's high in Netcong NJ at 1,000 feet reached 31.8 which marks the first day of the season with a below freezing high! At that same time the humidity was very low under 20%. When we look at the wet bulb temperature chart we need 27 degrees to blow snow and today's wet bulb didn't get above 22 degrees which means Mountain Creek most likely blew snow all day long, and tomorrow is going to be similar!


Now I live at 1,000 feet in elevation here in Netcong and the highest point at Mountain Creek is around 1,500 feet with the lowest being 440 feet, both at Vernon peak. For those of us who ski and board MC it has one of the lowest base elevations in the east, and actually in the entire continent! It's more like a valley that was carved out by glaciers 10,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age and doesn't have enough elevation to get some serious snowfall during the winter months. Elevation means everything and thats something that MC just doesn't have, but what they do have is one of the most powerful snowmaking systems in the region to make up for the natural snow deficit. The average snowfall here is around 65 inches per season which is not the lowest but one of the lowest averages for an east coast resort as well. But with all the disadvantages the resort has it still manages to provide 1,000 feet of skiing and riding every winter as well as the biggest terrain park in the east. That's one thing nobody will take from us, it's ALL JERSEY :)


Now I'm sure your all sick of me ranting so let's talk cold and SNOW!? Well this week will struggle with highs trying to near freezing or slightly above but a another cold shot comes in for Saturday with 510 thickness values! For those of you, which is most you, who don't know what the means basically it means a high temperature of around 25 degrees which may in fact be a record low for November I'll check on that one. We won't go above average for the rest of the month and even December will remain that way for the foreseeable future. The cold is here to stay and it's not going anywhere. Atleast not till the first week of January :(

Well, furries are possible all week long so don't be surprised to even get a dusting on some mountain tops, like Mountain Creek, Highland Lakes, Hopatcong, Netcong, Mount Olive, West Milford, Montague, Sparta, Sunrise Mountain, and other places over 1,000 feet up. You are the "snow" zones of New Jersey averaging more than anyone else, so never be surprised if you get unexpected snow. I'm not very concerned with little storms though, what I want is one that let's me take out the snow blower (if I owned one). I'm very surprised about what the models are saying for the start of next week Monday and Tuesday. (Click for bigger images on any of them)


The Candian is showing a nice band of snow over area!





















The JMA is also hinting at a little snow too!

And so is the NOGAPS but nothing much at all...

And the GFS once again goes against all the other models showing something totally different.

But as of lately the Euro model has been worth it's weight in gold bars. And it is showing a nice storm system off the coast with a band of snow on the northeast side.

Now it's still far out and the models have not be very consistent yet on the storm. The one problem is going to be the exact path. The snow band will be a narrow one and it could either happen over the shore, our area (Mountain Creek), or just north of our area. The Euro here most likely favors the shore but things can change. If the snow band does occur over our area then expect 2-4 inches of nice fluffy snow but I'm only giving a 30% chance right now until more data and model runs come out. KEEP CHECKING BACK FOR MORE EVERYDAY!

Another year older

Well today is November 18th, and it's 8:35 p.m. I was born just little under an hour ago on this date at 7:46, for those of you who don't get it yet, today is my birthday!

The current temperature in my town is 24.4 with 20% humidity and that makes for some fantastic snowmaking conditions at Mountain Creek and I can almost make a bet that those guns are on right now covering the trails in a coat of white. For tomorrow the national weather service is forecasting a high temperature of 36 degrees, but I don't buy it. There is no way we are going to get above freezing, and I find it hard that we are going to even get out of the 20's which means the snowmaking should be able to stay on straight through the day Wednesday!

A reinforcing shot of cold air will come down for the weekend most likely making Saturday the coldest day of the season thus far with temperatures having a hard time breaking the mid 20's for HIGHS! A brief warm up will begin to move in for Thanksgiving, but that won't last long as another shot of cold arctic air will pour into the region during that weekend. While there may be brief warm ups here and there, we are in fact in the middle of cold weather pattern which according to analogs years, suggest a cold snowy December. The analog year that long range forecaster Joe Bastardi with accuweather is looking at is none other than the 95-96 winter, and we all known what that year was like.

So far there are no impressive snowstorm on the maps although there is a hint of storm during the Thanksgiving weekend with the return of cold air, check back for more updates everyday!

Mountain Creek Updates!

At my school near the city, New York that is, it was around 49 degrees when I left on my hour drive home to northwest Jersey. And just like any winter day when I arrive home and take the first step out of my car the temperature change from my previous location is shocking. It's the usual ten degree drop from the mountains to the city and a good sign that winter is on it's way.

I'm sure we all noticed the drop in temperatures with the start of this new week with today's high temperature in Sussex ranging from 43 in the valleys and 39 at the highest mountain tops. Most of us were some where in between. Tonight we will dip down into the mid 20's and the rest of the week will struggle just to get into the 30's for high temperatures. With all this cold air that's going to be around let's talk about some snowmaking. First we have to see if it's cold enough to make snow and we do this by checking both the outdoor temperature and also the outdoor humidity. For example with 10% humidity snowmaking is possible at 39 degrees, although it's poor quality and most resorts wouldn't bother with that. At near 100% humidity snowmaking isn't possible until 27 degrees. Take a look at the chart for more information, we need a "wet bulb" temperature of 27 in order to make snow! (Currently at 5:37pm wet bulb is 28 degrees!)

(Click for bigger image)

With low humidity this week and temperatures at night reaching some upper teens and lower 20's it seems almost likely to me that Mountain Creek will turn on those guns and start painting the slopes white! Perhaps an early opening? We will have to wait and see about that one.

Ok, well it's going to be cold and it's going to last awhile, there is no doubt about that, but what about snowstorms!? Well we do have some snow in our forecast but nothing to exciting at this point in time. Monday night into Tuesday some showers will be possible in the area but the bulk out of them will be passing to our south and east giving us nothing more than a dusting if we are lucky anyway. Some lake effect snow squalls are possible at almost any time during the week and could put down a quick coating to an inch of snow across isolated areas, but those are extremely unpredictable. As long as we are in this pattern, clipper systems and squalls will be the main concern, but as of now, no major snowstorms are showing up in the computer models.

Check back everyday for more updates on snowmaking status and possible snowstorms! It's so close, I can hear the sound of a board carving in the snow...

Snowstorm looking more likely

Well after more models have come out things are lookings interesting. Let's take a look.

This is the GFS model, it's most recent run still has the storm but pushes more out over the ocean. (Click for bigger image)

The Candian model has now came into agreement with the GFS on a major snowstorm. (Click for bigger image)

And, ofcourse, the extented NAM, otherwise known as the DGEX has a monster! (Click for bigger image)

This is how much snow the DGEX is forecasting to be on the ground after this snowstorm:

Now that model after model is going with the idea of this storm I can say that there is a 75% chance of it happening. Now we need to find out where, when, who, and how it all comes together in the end. The chances of our area getting snow at this point is a 50/50 shot right now. If the European model begins to show the storm then that will tip the scale because the Euro has been doing awesome as of lately. Expect more updates with the new runs in the morning.

Northeast snowstorm coming?

In some previous post I have been talking about possible coastal developement around the 23rd but since then the models lost it completely. Now the GFS has brought it back 156 hours out: (click for bigger image)


















Now remember this model is on it's own right now. It's the only one showing a storm but more model runs come out at 18z and if anything comes up expect a post. Chances of this event are still very low around 5%

Keancast Forecast for Mountain Creek Resort!

As I have been talking about for the better part of two weeks now cold air is on the way and snowmaking at Mountain Creek will most likely beging this week! Posted below is the Keancast 7 day for Vernon NJ: (Courtesy of KU)


















Sun: Sunday will be a transition day as it will be turning windy and the temperature during the day will be comfortable in the 40's.

Mon: As the cold front comes through the highest elevations in Northwest Jersey will be seeing the rain changing to snow and some areas may pick up a nice coating at the highest mountain tops.


Tue: As of the 00UTC run of the models we should go below freezing Monday night late and won't rise above that 32 mark with some lake effect snow flurries and squalls in the area. High point ridge and the mountains in eastern Sussex and western Morris may pick up light accumlations.


Wed: The cold will begin to moderate Wedneday but just as it starts to pull out a re-inforcing shot comes down out of Canada dropping temperatures even more.


Thu: With the colder air coming down a clipper system may also come through the area very quickly and once again the highest elevations above 1,000 feet may get light accumulations, which is a frequent occurance this time of the year and expected.


Fri: I may have gone a little colder with the temperatures than most people but based on the lastest models and some personal instinct this forecast is generally for the higher areas in Sussex. Snowmaking at the resorts would now have had 4 solid days of snowmaking.


Sat: Yet another cold shot of air comes into the area and the expect low may be a record breaker for that date but this would be day 5 of none stop snowmaking and would most likely allow for the earliest opening of Mountain Creek ever.



Longer Range: After Saturday the forecast get's harder as some serious systems are on the maps but it seems likely that the cold weather will stick around for the rest of the month and will make November yet another month will above average snow and below average temperatures.



-Student meteorologist Darren Milliron (Kean University Department of Meteorology)

2nd Major snowstorm of the season?

Well as I have been saying for the past week its going to get cold next week and if any system comes into our area its most likely going to be snow. In October we already had our first major storm in Northwest Jeresy when areas above 1000 feet picked up 6-14 inches of snow. The 18z run has a major storm on the maps for the 24th of November which would bring similar totals to the area. It's only one run of the GFS and considered extremely unreliable but because it also showed this storm a couple days ago it makes me think. The actual chance of this major storm in my mind is around 10% but if it stays on the 0z, 6z, and so on then I would have more faith in it. It's still very far out and only time will tell.

Besides that major nor'easter it seems likely that northwest Jersey next week will get some lake effect snow squalls and areas over 1,000 feet could pick up between a dusting-2 inches of snow which is really nothing major. With cold air in the area clipper systems will be coming down out of Canada which will also bring snow mostly to the higher elevations and away from the coastal areas. One thing for sure is that we are being tossed into winter and the rest of November starting Monday will be 8-15 degrees cooler than average.


Here is the snowstorm for the 24th. It's only eye candy so don't take it to serious.(Click for bigger image)

Update on cold air!

Ok, now that the European, GFS, and DGEX weather models are all in agreement with cold air coming into the United States on the 18th of November I must say it lifts my confidence to around an 80% chance of occuring. One might ask themselves why I care about cold air and thats easy. First off I am a snowboarder and Mountain Creek in Vernon NJ needs a wet bulb temperature of 27 degrees in order to make snow and the cold air coming into our area is going to be FRIGID!!! It's not polar air, but it is actually true arctic air moving into the region and I wouldn't be surprised if record lows are set all throughout the central and eastern portion of the country. The current trend shows the temperature falling below freezing late on the 18th and may not recover above freezing for a week or better, it really looks to me like a deep freeze we would normally see in January. This cold air not only comes into our area the NAO will negative creating blocking and locking that cold air into place and that might go straight into December. Next week Mountain Creek in Vernon NJ will turn on the snow guns (if they are smart) and have a record opening date of all time. (Below are the GFS, EURO, and DGEX, click for bigger image) Note how the thickness values over us are equal to those in the arctic.

Mountain Creek Snowmaking!

Well, day after day, model after model is showing a cold arctic airmass coming out of Canada on the 18th of November providing a good week of below freezing temperatures and ofcourse SNOWMAKING!!! In the past couple blogs I was only 20% sure it would happen but now I'm giving it a good 60%! It seems as if this will be New Jersey first snowmaking opportunity which will allow the resorts to have an early opening. November skiiing is a real possibility...



Check out this run of the GFS, it looks more like mid January than mid November. (Click for bigger image)