Monday, December 15, 2008

This is 101

Well this is my 101st blog since I switched from myspace to blogspot last year! Things are getting interesting now, and I'm not sure what to think.

First off we are under a winter storm watch! Believe it or not, cause it did get to 60 across the lower elevations of Sussex and mid 50's above 1000 feet. That's warm! this is what the national weather service is saying: "

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 PM EST MON DEC 15 2008
NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-162100-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-
335 PM EST MON DEC 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WINTRY WEATHER EVENT IS LIKELY STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC AIR
BEHIND IT AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COUPLE OF PRECIPITATION SURGES ARE FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR PRECIPITATION
TO FALL AS SLEET AND SNOW. AS MORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN, ITS POSSIBLE
THAT PRECIPITATION MIGHT CHANGE TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY EVENING. THE
PROCESS IS THEN EXPECTED TO REVERSE ITSELF LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN OR JUST END AS
WEDNESDAY CONTINUES.

THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WINTER
STORM WARNING CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET MIGHT ACCUMULATE ALONG WITH A GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS CONTINUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WOULD START
IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE ON TUESDAY AND HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE ALSO.

PLEASE USE THE TIME PRIOR TO THE EVENT TO MAKE THE NECESSARY
PREPARATIONS."


Looking at the models I'm having a problem seeing what they are seeing because there is no snow showing up! But the soundings are showing an interesting trend. I'm going to show you a neat little trick:

1. On the right hand side of the page under useful weather models click soundings

2. Under Step 1 pick GFS

3. Under Step 2 select how many hours out, GFS does 6, 12, 18, 24 etc

4. Under Step 3 pick skew-t diagram

5. In Step 4 type in k12n (Sussex airport code)

6. Then Click go make sounding!


Well you get this: (Click for bigger image)
It may seem hard to read but the bottom of the chart is the surface of earth where we live and the higher on the chart represents the higher in the atomphere. This actually shows the temperature! If the upper atmosphere is below 0 and the surface is below 0 than it can snow outside! If it's above, depending how much, you get freezing rain, sleet, or just plain rain. The blue line represent temperature and the Skew-T above is a snow sounding for 9:00 A.M tomorrow morning...

To be honest, I see how the higher elevations get a little snow, but something seems very wrong to me about this whole storm. We could wake up tomorrow surprised, or we could wake up very disappointed. At this point, I would encourage you to try looking at weather models, soundings, and the NOAA winter weather outlooks. All this can be found on the right hand side of my page. The models come out at 00utc (mid night) 06utc(6 AM) 12utc(noon) 18utc(6 PM), try it! If you have any questions or comments on anything feel free to email or comment, I'll try my best to help you!

Oh yeah, and LONG RANGE:
Remember that storm I was talking about around the 20th? Well the GFS shows a nice snow storm on the coast, but the Euro shows a very similar storm to what happened this past weekend. As of now I'm going with the Euro because it has been the most accurate so far this season...

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