Tuesday, April 21, 2009

I'm getting sick of winter....

Well oddly enough yesterday was very cold by late April standards and a wintry mix fell in the higher elevations of New Jersey most of the day with nothing more than a trace. This makes the snow season from Oct 27th- April 20th, but it's not over :(

As I look outside now the ground is white, but it's hail from a T-Storm that just passed. And hail IS NOT wintry precipitation, never was and never will be. Come Wednesday into Thursday cold air will move into the area and the GFS suggests snow accumulation!??? Yes, if this is right, just 20 hours from now, areas 1,000 feet and higher in NJ could get 1-3 inches of snow. Oddly enough the next day will get near 70 followed by 80's the next :0

If winter type precipitation ends up falling in May this year then I will begin a rampage on the whole global warming scam. Because it's not supposed to snow 7 months out of the year in Jersey, sorry, it doesn't happen "with all this warming :/"

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Where the heck is spring?

Usually by this time of the year the grass is being cut, the trees are full of buds, rain is heavy, and warm days come often. That statment leaves most of us saying "Well why has it been freezing cold and snowy?" First off I want to mention that April is now running 3.77 degrees below the average for the month, that means we need some serious warmth to raise that number. Things should start to get warmer now and hopefully we have had our last snow and our last freeze.

Another problem is the lack of precipiation, so far our area has only picked up 0.77" inches of rain in April and only 5.14" inches all year! Last year at this time we had 15.22" inches already which makes us over 10" inches below last year! Not a good sign, and one I don't believe will be fixed any time soon.

In my previous blog I talked about how we would experience a hot dry summer, but I'm starting to think twice about that. Our sun is going through a time of very low activity and it is going to affect summer temperatures. I'm still calling for a dry summer but now I think that summer may be slighty below average temperature wise, with a shortened season, meaning fall will be quick to move in with a leaf drop completed before Halloween. That also has something to do with a dry season.

Let's see what happens. Now that winter is over my blog entries will start to become very scattered over time but keep checking back for possible trends in the 09-10 winter season? :0 yeah.... we got awhile

Saturday, April 4, 2009

Cold and Snowy Pattern (IN APRIL?)

I didn't think I would be blogging about the prospects for snow until November of this year but here I am doing it again. Winter, yes winter, is making a powerful come back (by April standards) and that means freezing temperatures and yes, snow. Right now as I speak the winds outside are gusting to 35-40 mph and at 5:30 this morning a snow shower came through my town with no accumulation. It's actually normal for April, but if I see this kind of thing in May then we are in trouble...

This is winter come back #1, and it's short lived. By Sunday and Monday conditions will improve and it will feel as if spring is on! But that's only an illusion, a "April Fools" of sorts until Tuesday comes. A storm system will ride right over the Phily-NYC area and with cold air pouring in behind the system it could mean snow. This type of track is favorable for higher elevation snow in New Jersey and this a carbon copy of the October 28th snowstorm which dumped over a foot of snow in some places of Morris and Sussex counties. Check out the GFS and EURO:

By looking at these models it looks like nothing more than flurries, but unfortunately the models are having all kinds of problems and most likely will not catch on to any major snow event because it's a complicated situation. As sad as it sounds, I don't know and nobody will know whats going to happen until it's already underway. One thing is for sure though, it's going to be COLD by April standards next week, just check out what the EURO is showing: (Notice how out of place that cold air is?) You gotta get into the arctic circle to find similar thickness values!
Let's see what happens with the models over the weekend, either way, it's going to be interesting.