Saturday, December 27, 2008
Battle still going
Here is the Euro model, as of 12:23 it's yesterdays model but it will update by atleast 3:00 today. I wont be around so it's up to you! If you see an area of low pressure along the east coast with the second blue color over the area than the Euro went over to snow! If the low remains over the mid-west and we stay in the warm colors than we have rain. (This will update by itself right here on the blog so check back soon! And click for bigger image)
Friday, December 26, 2008
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Consistency = Likely
18z GFS run:
Interestingly, I see two possibilities here. The first one is a negative tilted trough with a storm that gets talked about in text books and remembered for years to come. When a storm gets caught up in a negative titled trough (Like Oct 28th of this year) amazing things happen. Or the second being the lack of cold air with this system and it's just rain maker. When the EURO model starts to forecast this storm (not for another day or two) , it will be the ice breaker, and then I will get a much better picture. Until then, I will be waiting anxiously till the 12z model tomorrow and the 00z model Saturday. It's like Christmas presents all over again, you never know what your gunna get! :)
This is the North Atlantic Oscillation, and it is the largest influence on the weather here in the North East United States. When it's negative we get cold and storms, when it's positive we have warmth and sunny skies. So you can imagine that the last two winter were mostly positive, and they were! But you look at a year like 1996 which was mostly negative and the big picture comes to life. This image above is embeded directly from NOAA and updates daily on it's own so you can come back to this blog to see how it changes from day to day. The black represents the past, and the red is what forcasted. When it goes negative expect cold and snow this time of the year, and notice it's highly negative for our January 3rd storm... interesting stuff, let's see how it all holds up.
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Storm still on the maps
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Predictions cometh true?
Ok, well in my long ranger I talked about how the weather is going to be, well, boring until perhaps January 1st-5th. I now see a BIG storm coming up for around the 3rd-5th (one of those days) and it looks LIKELY to happen. But, will it be rain, sleet, or snow?
This is what is looks like on the GFS: (Click for bigger image)
This is what our new weather pattern is going to look like that should last around six weeks. It will go from very warm, then a storm will move in bringing with it cold air. Now, will the storms be snow for our region or rain? That's the big question! But this being the "start" of the pattern could give us a sign of what the majority of our winter will bring. Ofcourse it's way too far out right now but this will be the focus of my blog in the coming weeks...
It's not looking to good. There will be some cold for night snow making and perhaps a flurry or two here and there but it seems likely nothing will happen till January :(
P.S. December is running +4.3 inches of snow above so far and -.20 degrees below average.
Sunday, December 21, 2008
By the way, happy first day of winter!
Long Range till January
Let's start closer to present day and move on.
12/24-25: It looks to be a wet Christmas rather than white :(
12/26-31: It looks like a seasonable pattern with a new years rain storm
1/1-5: We could see a shot of nice cold and prehaps a storm?
1/5-15: The pattern will shift, some say it will be extremely warm. Although I do believe we will have an EXTREME thaw in January I believe a big storm may come out of the clash of air masses.
1/15-30: As of that far I would just be guessing, or lieing, which ever you want to believe. Anyway, I do think that the BEST conditions of the season are NOW! So go to the resorts ASAP. The north Jersey snowpack could reach up to 20 inches in the Mountains after tomorrows storm. Go out, have fun, and enjoy the Vermont like conditions. They won't last long.
P.S. Monday will be the coldest day of the winter so far. Sussex county highs will be 12-16 degrees and lows from 4-9. Keep warm!!!!
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Snowmap for Dec 21st
Here is the NAM model for Sunday's storm:
Let's move on to Christmas storm, although it's not good news. As of right now it looks like the storm will be mostly rain. The only thing is the models just 4 days ago showed a storm on the 19th being rain, and we all know it was snow so things can always change.
How much snow did you get in your area? Any questions or comments? Let me know! Have an awesome weekend and check back often.
Friday, December 19, 2008
Round 1 over
As for tomorrow snow showers will be around and snowmaking will go round the clock! I don't suggest going to Creek tomorrow because it will be VERY crowded. Try going at around 5:00 at night when everyone leaves, or go Sunday night. The Sunday storm looks to be all frozen precip but more mixing could go on, but it seems that the area will get 4-8 inches. Check back tomorrow morning, I will post a snowmap and some m0dels!
Have an awesome weekend!
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
JFK Friday Morning
Here is a skew-T- Diagram for JFK airport Friday morning.
This is based off of the 18z run of the GFS and shows all snow falling. The air according to the models over JFK during most of the storm is marginal so you might luck out with lower snow accumulations over that area. If the storm shifts slightly (I'm talking 20 miles) then you have 10 inches of snow at JFK. I'll update tomorrow with the new model runs, check back in! I hoped this helped!
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Euro shows major snowstorm
Monday, December 15, 2008
This is 101
Hazardous Weather Outlook
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 PM EST MON DEC 15 2008
335 PM EST MON DEC 15 2008
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WINTRY WEATHER EVENT IS LIKELY STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC AIR
BEHIND IT AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COUPLE OF PRECIPITATION SURGES ARE FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE REGION.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR PRECIPITATION
TO FALL AS SLEET AND SNOW. AS MORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN, ITS POSSIBLE
THAT PRECIPITATION MIGHT CHANGE TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY EVENING. THE
PROCESS IS THEN EXPECTED TO REVERSE ITSELF LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN OR JUST END AS
THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WINTER
STORM WARNING CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET MIGHT ACCUMULATE ALONG WITH A GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS CONTINUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WOULD START
IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE ON TUESDAY AND HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE ALSO.
PLEASE USE THE TIME PRIOR TO THE EVENT TO MAKE THE NECESSARY
To be honest, I see how the higher elevations get a little snow, but something seems very wrong to me about this whole storm. We could wake up tomorrow surprised, or we could wake up very disappointed. At this point, I would encourage you to try looking at weather models, soundings, and the NOAA winter weather outlooks. All this can be found on the right hand side of my page. The models come out at 00utc (mid night) 06utc(6 AM) 12utc(noon) 18utc(6 PM), try it! If you have any questions or comments on anything feel free to email or comment, I'll try my best to help you!
Oh yeah, and LONG RANGE:
Sunday, December 14, 2008
1. The start of the new week will bring more warmth and rain
2. The mid-week to end of the week will bring seasonable conditions with very little snowmaking opportunities. Some rain and higher elevation wintry precip is possible, although nothing to get exited so by any means.
3. Around the 20th a storm will come up the coast and could be very impressive. The only problem is the cold air is lagging behind the storm and may be mostly a rain event with snow showers on the back side.
4. After that storm moves through cold air will be put in place for the Christmas break allowing for much needed snowmaking for the resorts. Maybe we could get some snow out of that cold but considering this pattern we may have to wait till January...
This week is going to be a difficult one for me to do updates, but if the long range changes I will let you know ASAP!
Friday, December 12, 2008
Here we go again...
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Well one thing seems for sure about this storm system coming up the coast as I write this. The models busted, all models except the European which has been doing fantastic this year. Some colder air will come down into our area later tonight changing the rain to freezing rain, then to sleet, and then to snow mainly across the highest elevations. Don't expect much in the way of accumulation though, it seems as if this pattern we are in has both cold and storms but they do not coexist at the same time and place. This may be a view of what is to come until the pattern shifts in January.
I'll update later tonight with model runs.
Monday, December 8, 2008
A Storm Lurks...
After this storm it looks like we will see a 4-6 day warm up followed again by colder air for the holidays. Check back in for updates all week long!
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Live from NYC!
Well, as I thought, they pushed back their opening date to the 13th which should be actually be an AWESOME opening because north and south should open with ample terrain! Snowmaking will resume Friday and go non stop through the weekend and some natural snow will fall adding to the base for opening day! It's going to be an amazing December with trails rising quickly.
There is nothing major to talk about snow wise right now as cold air will dominate the region but for Friday a front will passing through and some of us above 1,000 feet may pick up some minor accumulations adding to the 6-14 inches we have already had so far this season. At lower elevations and dusting is possible. As for Sunday of this weekend a clipper system will come through and could also put down a few inches at the highest elevations but overall lower accumulations, although I have seen these storms explode at the last second upping the snow amounts.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
I'm back, and so is the cold
For one, our storm Sunday was mostly rain with a high temperature of 34! That's a close call and I must say, I didn't see that coming. Interestingly enough that storm tracked way out to our west and brought up more mild air (though still below average) for early week but the cold air is building across the north and will come through this weekend. This will allow snowmakers to go on full blast adding to the snow made back in November and this will allow for the resorts in our area, including Mountain Creek to open for the second week in December.
Besides frontal systems, some lake effect, and clipper systems (which will dominate this month) I don't yet see any potential threat for major snow. Most of our snow comes from coastal storms or "Nor'easters" but the cold will over our region will make any system go off to our south. We need slight break from the cold this month to get a big storm, I do believe December will still be cold and stormy, but will it be snowy?
I will update later tonight or tomorrow if I get a chance! Feel free to comment the blog or email for any questions. Later!