BATTLE OVER

The battle has ended the EURO is now agreeing with the GFS and DGEX. A Northeast snowstorm is likely for the 3rd of January, let's just hope that rain/snow line is off to the east of us here in Jersey. More updates as the storm reaches 144 hours out.

Battle still going

I don't have much time today, but I just checked the models the the DGEX, GFS are up against heavy weight champion EURO. The Euro shows a rain storm for us here in Jersey but the GFS and DGEX have gone to wintry weather.

Here is the Euro model, as of 12:23 it's yesterdays model but it will update by atleast 3:00 today. I wont be around so it's up to you! If you see an area of low pressure along the east coast with the second blue color over the area than the Euro went over to snow! If the low remains over the mid-west and we stay in the warm colors than we have rain. (This will update by itself right here on the blog so check back soon! And click for bigger image)

Battle begins...

European caught onto the storm but shows a track not favorable for a major eastern snowstorm, its the GFS vs. EURO right now and the score this season is in favor for the EURO 20-1. Let's hope the GFS is right, I can't stand more rain...

EURO model, shows mid-west snow and eastern rain:

Ill will try to update as much as possible but unfortunately Rangeley Maine is in the middle of NOWHERE.... But it's awesome!

Consistency = Likely

When it comes to computer weather models consistency in a certain event is what meteorologists look for. A consistent trend is hard for the models to do but with this storm on January 3rd the models, on every run, are showing the same thing time and time again. And that's rare, especially for the GFS. By tomorrow night and Saturday morning the EURO will start to pick up on this storm at 168 hours out and it will be the ice breaker. If the EURO shows the same as the GFS and is consistent then I can safely say that chances are, on January 3rd, we may see a WHOPPER of a snow storm! Why is this?


18z GFS run:

Interestingly, I see two possibilities here. The first one is a negative tilted trough with a storm that gets talked about in text books and remembered for years to come. When a storm gets caught up in a negative titled trough (Like Oct 28th of this year) amazing things happen. Or the second being the lack of cold air with this system and it's just rain maker. When the EURO model starts to forecast this storm (not for another day or two) , it will be the ice breaker, and then I will get a much better picture. Until then, I will be waiting anxiously till the 12z model tomorrow and the 00z model Saturday. It's like Christmas presents all over again, you never know what your gunna get! :)

NAO indices:

This is the North Atlantic Oscillation, and it is the largest influence on the weather here in the North East United States. When it's negative we get cold and storms, when it's positive we have warmth and sunny skies. So you can imagine that the last two winter were mostly positive, and they were! But you look at a year like 1996 which was mostly negative and the big picture comes to life. This image above is embeded directly from NOAA and updates daily on it's own so you can come back to this blog to see how it changes from day to day. The black represents the past, and the red is what forcasted. When it goes negative expect cold and snow this time of the year, and notice it's highly negative for our January 3rd storm... interesting stuff, let's see how it all holds up.

Storm still on the maps

Here is the 18z run of the GFS. This model has been VERY consistent on the storm for Jan 3rd and cold air mass in place. This gives me more faith but it's still really far out on the models. I don't really see anything of interest until then so for now, it's a boring weather pattern.

18z GFS (Click for bigger image):

I will be going to Maine for one week for some snowboarding up at Saddleback Mountain and Sugarloaf USA. I may not be able to post everyday but I will sure try!

Predictions cometh true?

Long Range:

Ok, well in my long ranger I talked about how the weather is going to be, well, boring until perhaps January 1st-5th. I now see a BIG storm coming up for around the 3rd-5th (one of those days) and it looks LIKELY to happen. But, will it be rain, sleet, or snow?

This is what is looks like on the GFS: (Click for bigger image)

















This is what our new weather pattern is going to look like that should last around six weeks. It will go from very warm, then a storm will move in bringing with it cold air. Now, will the storms be snow for our region or rain? That's the big question! But this being the "start" of the pattern could give us a sign of what the majority of our winter will bring. Ofcourse it's way too far out right now but this will be the focus of my blog in the coming weeks...


Short Range:

It's not looking to good. There will be some cold for night snow making and perhaps a flurry or two here and there but it seems likely nothing will happen till January :(


P.S. December is running +4.3 inches of snow above so far and -.20 degrees below average.

Current storm

Well I woke up and looked at the radar and the storm blew up to late, to far out to sea. This means that 4-7 I predicted was a total bust. I saw this happening on the models last night but I didn't want to believe it...

By the way, happy first day of winter!

Long Range till January

This is my attempt at long range forecasting, I'm still new at it and it's only experimental methods I'm using.

Let's start closer to present day and move on.

12/24-25: It looks to be a wet Christmas rather than white :(

12/26-31: It looks like a seasonable pattern with a new years rain storm

1/1-5: We could see a shot of nice cold and prehaps a storm?

1/5-15: The pattern will shift, some say it will be extremely warm. Although I do believe we will have an EXTREME thaw in January I believe a big storm may come out of the clash of air masses.

1/15-30: As of that far I would just be guessing, or lieing, which ever you want to believe. Anyway, I do think that the BEST conditions of the season are NOW! So go to the resorts ASAP. The north Jersey snowpack could reach up to 20 inches in the Mountains after tomorrows storm. Go out, have fun, and enjoy the Vermont like conditions. They won't last long.


P.S. Monday will be the coldest day of the winter so far. Sussex county highs will be 12-16 degrees and lows from 4-9. Keep warm!!!!

Snowmap for Dec 21st

This next system coming in will bring 4-7 inches across Sussex county with higher amounts in the highest elevations. The snowmap may need some revising as time goes on but it's a good illustration of whats to come. The problem with this storm is the lack of precip and it's a quick mover, but this one should remain all snow.

Here is the NAM model for Sunday's storm:

Let's move on to Christmas storm, although it's not good news. As of right now it looks like the storm will be mostly rain. The only thing is the models just 4 days ago showed a storm on the 19th being rain, and we all know it was snow so things can always change.

How much snow did you get in your area? Any questions or comments? Let me know! Have an awesome weekend and check back often.

Round 1 over

Well, what an amazing storm! Netcong picked up 7 inches of the white stuff which brings the season total to 15.15 inches! We should be well on our way to 70+ inches this year with 55+ inches in the Valley of Sussex county. I was snowboarding most of the day and I would estimate the bottom fo Creek got 6.5 inches and the top had well over 10 inches. It was amazing!

As for tomorrow snow showers will be around and snowmaking will go round the clock! I don't suggest going to Creek tomorrow because it will be VERY crowded. Try going at around 5:00 at night when everyone leaves, or go Sunday night. The Sunday storm looks to be all frozen precip but more mixing could go on, but it seems that the area will get 4-8 inches. Check back tomorrow morning, I will post a snowmap and some m0dels!

Have an awesome weekend!

Snowmap

Well here is the snow map! You like it? It's a little odd, but I think it gets the point through. I am thinking that places above 1,000 feet north of I-80 get 8-12 inches of snow.

The parade of storms has begun and will continue for the foreseeable future. I promised a snowy December, and that will come true after this week. Enjoy and check back every so often for updates! I'll be snowboarding POWDER tomorrow so it might be a late post about the Sunday storm.

-Any questions or comments? Ask! Enjoy the snow.

JFK Friday Morning

This is for one of the blog readers!

Here is a skew-T- Diagram for JFK airport Friday morning.


















This is based off of the 18z run of the GFS and shows all snow falling. The air according to the models over JFK during most of the storm is marginal so you might luck out with lower snow accumulations over that area. If the storm shifts slightly (I'm talking 20 miles) then you have 10 inches of snow at JFK. I'll update tomorrow with the new model runs, check back in! I hoped this helped!

Wow....

Well storm number 1 has moved through bringing northwest Jersey up to 3 inches (2.25 in Netcong). Mostly higher elevations got the snow, which is no surprise. Let's move on.

Storm # 2 comes Thursday into Friday, and it's looking interesting. It's going to come in the form of heavy snow for hours on end with precip amounts (liquid) of 1-2 inches. If we do the usual 1 inch of rain = 10 inches of snow, factor in some mixing, northwest Jersey could be looking at 10-15 inches of snow. It's not offical yet so check back tomorrow!

Check out the NAM:

Storm # 3 comes in Sunday into Monday but looks less favorable than storm 2, but things can change over the next few days. It does seem as if accumulation is possible.

Storm #4, yes a fourth within ONE WEEK come Christmas eve. It's too far out right now to tell what type of precip it will bring, but with cold air lingering, it could be more frozen stuff!

It's and active week coming up, check back in tomorrow!!!

Euro shows major snowstorm

This weekend will be a not one but two storms. On the 20th Storm number 1 will come through and bring mostly a rain event will a mix on the north side. This storm is mostly a rain maker, but storm number 2 on the 22nd could be a major snowstorm. The GFS and DGEX are going with a warmer solution but the EURO is showing a massive Nor' Easter going up the coast laying down significant snowfall. Before I am going to jump to conclusions I want to see consistency in the model runs, but for now, let's not get excited just yet.

EURO: (Click for bigger image)

This is 101

Well this is my 101st blog since I switched from myspace to blogspot last year! Things are getting interesting now, and I'm not sure what to think.

First off we are under a winter storm watch! Believe it or not, cause it did get to 60 across the lower elevations of Sussex and mid 50's above 1000 feet. That's warm! this is what the national weather service is saying: "

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 PM EST MON DEC 15 2008
NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-162100-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-
335 PM EST MON DEC 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WINTRY WEATHER EVENT IS LIKELY STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC AIR
BEHIND IT AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COUPLE OF PRECIPITATION SURGES ARE FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR PRECIPITATION
TO FALL AS SLEET AND SNOW. AS MORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN, ITS POSSIBLE
THAT PRECIPITATION MIGHT CHANGE TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY EVENING. THE
PROCESS IS THEN EXPECTED TO REVERSE ITSELF LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN OR JUST END AS
WEDNESDAY CONTINUES.

THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WINTER
STORM WARNING CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET MIGHT ACCUMULATE ALONG WITH A GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS CONTINUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WOULD START
IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE ON TUESDAY AND HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE ALSO.

PLEASE USE THE TIME PRIOR TO THE EVENT TO MAKE THE NECESSARY
PREPARATIONS."

Looking at the models I'm having a problem seeing what they are seeing because there is no snow showing up! But the soundings are showing an interesting trend. I'm going to show you a neat little trick:

1. On the right hand side of the page under useful weather models click soundings

2. Under Step 1 pick GFS

3. Under Step 2 select how many hours out, GFS does 6, 12, 18, 24 etc

4. Under Step 3 pick skew-t diagram

5. In Step 4 type in k12n (Sussex airport code)

6. Then Click go make sounding!

Well you get this: (Click for bigger image)

It may seem hard to read but the bottom of the chart is the surface of earth where we live and the higher on the chart represents the higher in the atomphere. This actually shows the temperature! If the upper atmosphere is below 0 and the surface is below 0 than it can snow outside! If it's above, depending how much, you get freezing rain, sleet, or just plain rain. The blue line represent temperature and the Skew-T above is a snow sounding for 9:00 A.M tomorrow morning...

To be honest, I see how the higher elevations get a little snow, but something seems very wrong to me about this whole storm. We could wake up tomorrow surprised, or we could wake up very disappointed. At this point, I would encourage you to try looking at weather models, soundings, and the NOAA winter weather outlooks. All this can be found on the right hand side of my page. The models come out at 00utc (mid night) 06utc(6 AM) 12utc(noon) 18utc(6 PM), try it! If you have any questions or comments on anything feel free to email or comment, I'll try my best to help you!

Oh yeah, and LONG RANGE:

Remember that storm I was talking about around the 20th? Well the GFS shows a nice snow storm on the coast, but the Euro shows a very similar storm to what happened this past weekend. As of now I'm going with the Euro because it has been the most accurate so far this season...

Quick Update

After looking at the models nothing seems to have changed since Friday! Consistency tells me that the models are most likely being accurate. Ill take you through the the weather for the next two weeks:

1. The start of the new week will bring more warmth and rain

2. The mid-week to end of the week will bring seasonable conditions with very little snowmaking opportunities. Some rain and higher elevation wintry precip is possible, although nothing to get exited so by any means.

3. Around the 20th a storm will come up the coast and could be very impressive. The only problem is the cold air is lagging behind the storm and may be mostly a rain event with snow showers on the back side.

4. After that storm moves through cold air will be put in place for the Christmas break allowing for much needed snowmaking for the resorts. Maybe we could get some snow out of that cold but considering this pattern we may have to wait till January...

This week is going to be a difficult one for me to do updates, but if the long range changes I will let you know ASAP!

Here we go again...

First off take a look at what happened in the highest elevations of northwest Jersey. It was amazing! Half an inch of freezing rain:

Mountain Creeks high temperature for Saturday should only make it to 26 degrees allowing for them to rebuild the base that they lost in the previous rain/ice storm. As of now Creek is covered in a thick accumulation of ice which forced them to close down this week but will be able to open once conditions become safe and power is back on.

Longer Range:

Well after a cold start to the begining of the week it looks like things will warm back up for 4-7 days as a trough will settle in the west for the first time this winter and a ridge over the east.

GFS 18z showing warmth up the coast:

And for snow, I dont see much hope of anything until around the 20th but you know what these models are like. Its something to watch but don't get to exicted.

GFS 18z run:

DGEX run similar:

Remember, winter is far from over, in fact it actually hasn't started yet! We have a lot of winter to go, just check that in mind. What we need is a pattern change...

Wow!

Take a look at this radar shot. That is very heavy rains!

As for snow, the models are not looking very favorable with the 18z runs. Check back tomorrow, hopefully something will show up.

I'm back

Sorry for the lack of blog posting as of lately. Usually I update everyday or every other day with the very latest but I have just not had the time with all this work building up before the end of the year.

Well one thing seems for sure about this storm system coming up the coast as I write this. The models busted, all models except the European which has been doing fantastic this year. Some colder air will come down into our area later tonight changing the rain to freezing rain, then to sleet, and then to snow mainly across the highest elevations. Don't expect much in the way of accumulation though, it seems as if this pattern we are in has both cold and storms but they do not coexist at the same time and place. This may be a view of what is to come until the pattern shifts in January.

I'll update later tonight with model runs.

A Storm Lurks...

This past weekend has certainly been cold and we did manage to pick up a little bit of snow as well! Snowmaking has been non stop at the resorts and they are now open. Come Tuesday and Wednesay a storm will come up the coast and bring a mostly rain event with a little mixed precipitation on the front end but nothing to get excited for. Then it get's interesting after that as colder air will be in place and a second storm moves up the coast for Thursday into Friday. All models are currently showing snow except the Euro model, and the fact that the Euro isn't showing it makes me a bit skeptical if it's going to be rain or snow. One thing for sure is that the back side of that storm will get 6-10 inches of the white stuff, and right now the models are showing northwest Jersey in that area! Check out the models:

DGEX:




















GFS MODEL:



















After this storm it looks like we will see a 4-6 day warm up followed again by colder air for the holidays. Check back in for updates all week long!

Live from NYC!

New York City is where you can find me today, at none other than the tree lighting! (Look for me on TV!) I bet you want to know about Mountain Creek status and snow/cold, correct?

Mountain Creek:

Well, as I thought, they pushed back their opening date to the 13th which should be actually be an AWESOME opening because north and south should open with ample terrain! Snowmaking will resume Friday and go non stop through the weekend and some natural snow will fall adding to the base for opening day! It's going to be an amazing December with trails rising quickly.

Snow:
There is nothing major to talk about snow wise right now as cold air will dominate the region but for Friday a front will passing through and some of us above 1,000 feet may pick up some minor accumulations adding to the 6-14 inches we have already had so far this season. At lower elevations and dusting is possible. As for Sunday of this weekend a clipper system will come through and could also put down a few inches at the highest elevations but overall lower accumulations, although I have seen these storms explode at the last second upping the snow amounts.

GFS (Sunday)

EURO (Sunday):

COLD SNOWMAKING AIR?:

It does get cold and stays in a cold weather pattern till Christmas, a warm up is possible for the holidays but cold will return. Personally I believe we will see a pattern reversal the first week of January toward mild and stormy conditions. Remember don't kill the messenger.

COLD AIR:

I'm back, and so is the cold

For one I would like apologize for my absence this past week. I have been overloaded with work and never got the chance to update. Unfortunately I have limited time today so things will be short.

For one, our storm Sunday was mostly rain with a high temperature of 34! That's a close call and I must say, I didn't see that coming. Interestingly enough that storm tracked way out to our west and brought up more mild air (though still below average) for early week but the cold air is building across the north and will come through this weekend. This will allow snowmakers to go on full blast adding to the snow made back in November and this will allow for the resorts in our area, including Mountain Creek to open for the second week in December.

Snow:
Besides frontal systems, some lake effect, and clipper systems (which will dominate this month) I don't yet see any potential threat for major snow. Most of our snow comes from coastal storms or "Nor'easters" but the cold will over our region will make any system go off to our south. We need slight break from the cold this month to get a big storm, I do believe December will still be cold and stormy, but will it be snowy?

I will update later tonight or tomorrow if I get a chance! Feel free to comment the blog or email for any questions. Later!