Thursday, September 20, 2007

I spy the first snow...

Well ladies and germs, the 12UTC model runs just came out and let me tell you, they spell winter all over them. In recent days you may have heard me talking about NAO and AO which are forms of high latitude blocking. If you have no idea what that is you can look at my last blog and there is a link which will give interesting information. The current forecast of the NAO (north atlantic oscillation) is showing it going into a negative phase in time for October and the same thing with the AO (artic oscillation). When these two do this during this time of the year it means low pressure and colder temperatures.

The model that just came out forecasted nearly 16 days out and I would consider all of the information that far out USELESS. I'm just letting you know that this isn't exactly what will happen but it is giving a general overview of the future weather pattern. These models below are not accurate but it is Oh so fun to look at them.

This model below is for Friday October 5th, (GFS). This shows the temperature dropping nearly 40 degrees during a cold front with a rain changing to snow event, if this happened we could have our first accumulating snowfall of the season. (remember this is REALLY far out so things can and will change)

The next model is for Saturday the 6th of October (GFS) and it is showing high temperatures in the upper 20's with lake effect snow squalls. If this happened I think the local ski resorts like Mountain Creek could test their snowmaking system out. I'm not sure if they would do so this early in the season though. I do believe the first freeze is imminent though. (remember, this is FAR out so don't hurt me if it doesn't happen)

If you really care about this stuff keep an eye on the NAO and AO, if anything changes with those two then you can bet the models will change as well. The NAO and AO can be found below, they update daily by themselves. (If you don't know, the black lines show the past record of blocking and the red lines show the forecast)

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Long range forecast...

Yes, the long range forecast. I hate these, the only reason I do it is because it is cool to see if it comes true or not. Well here I go.

The next week should be August like and will be very NICE! We could even see one or two more days of 80's but after that we are done with 80's till next spring. So enjoy it! There is something very interesting that is making me go back to an old saying I use during the winters months "One extreme leads the another of the opposite". I believe that will most certainly happen too. It will be warm and dry for the next week and half to two weeks but then in time for October things will change dramactically!

The NAO and AO are types of high latitude blocking and if current projections are correction they will both tank in two weeks time. This will bring cold and weather pattern with it to the eastern US and maybe the first freeze event of the year. The models are not showing this yet but I bet they will in a couple days. Below is the link, check it out!

I know I said I would do a fall foilage blog but nothing really has changed just yet, I will be doing one in coming days.

Friday, September 14, 2007

Snow watch!

The mornings here in North West Jersey have been quite chilly as of lately. The 40's have been common and in coming days I wouldn't be surprised to see some 30's in the higher elevations of Sussex. As for North East Jersey, 50's have been common but that doesn't excite me. Urban heating and the ocean keep those areas much warmer. Now, everyone likes snow, right? GOOD! Let's talk about this magical four letter word. First I want to show you the la nina that is developing out in the pacific. This is a good indicator of cold weather and average precipitation to come.

Now we can move on to better things, one step at a time. North Atlantic Oscillation or (NAO) is a key factor in northeast snowstorms. In fact its the main ingredient as Paul Kocin would say who literally wrote the book on northeast snowstorms. Here is a link about NAO, its short and easy to understand. . As you read in there a negative NAO is what we look for when praying for coastal development, we are currently in a 30 year positive phase but in the last couple months we have struggled to get positive, maybe this is why we had a cool summer? This NAO is a very easy concept. Right now it is neutral to positive.

Now that we know the basics of the northeast snowstorms let's go to the models! The GFS is the only model right now that I have access to that is showing any signs of possible snow for here in NW Jersey, but things will most certainly change. This same model had a montana blizzard on it last week and showed cold air coming into the northeast, one of those two came true. Check it out, it doesn't actually show snow except for farther north. What if that cold push keeps coming down and that little clipper system brings precip? Hmmmmm? Lake effect too? Interesting.

That's all I have to show for now, tomorrow I will be posting a fall foilage blog to update you on the very latest. For those of you waiting for snow boarding season you might see this mountain snow covered sooner than you think!

Monday, September 10, 2007

Lake effect snow!

It's that time of the year again. The first snow of the season can be expected for the northern great lakes within the week. (as of the 18utc models) Do you really want to read what I have to say? Heck, look at the models for yourself!

(GFS, 4 days out) Ok, so its no 15 feet of snow, but its snow! So early in the season too.

(GFS, 5 days out) If this happens, we can expect temperatures in the 50's for NW Jersey and 60's for NE Jersey!

(DGEX model, 3 days out) Im lovin this one! Signs of snow!

Sunday, September 9, 2007

Winter 2007/2008 Outlook


The blog will contain two parts. The first will be the Old Farmers Almanac prediction and then my prediction for the winter season. Mine will be a general overview and explanations why it will be the way it is. The Almanac will go day by day telling you what the weather will be. Last years Almanac was almost completely wrong but other years it was right on. The Almanac is up to 80% correct!

THE OLD FARMERS ALMANAC- (Northeast only sorry)
1st-3rd. Wet weather in New England. Farther south, scattered showers, thunderstorms Labor Day holiday.
4th-7th. Fair, pleasant.
8th-11th. Hurricane threat for Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts. Thunderstorms sweep in from west, then clearing.
12th-15th. Fair skies.
16th-19th. Rain, then turning fair, coolers.
20th-23rd. Fair skies persist.
24th-27th. Thunderstorms rumble rapidly across region, then clearing, cooler conditions.
28th-30th. Fair skies, then scattered rain showers.

1st-3rd. Mostly fair.
4th-7th. Dry, windy weather.
8th-11th. Strong disturbulance sweeps east, with heavy rains for mid atlantic states. Stormy with gale-force winds (39 mph +) along New England coast.
12th-15th. Showers reach NY, Penn, and Northeast, accompanied by milder air.
16th-19th. Dry, milder, especially New England.
20th-23rd. Severe thunderstorms move in from west, then clearing, unseasonable cold, widespread frost.
24th-27th. Fair at first then turning unsettled.
28th-31st. Fair for trick-or-treaters.

1st-3rd. Fair skies.
4th-7th. Stormy weather developes over mid-atlantic states, early season snowfall possible then clearing, cold. Gusty wet for ING New York City Marathon.
8th-11th. Light snows rapidly sweep into New England.
12th-15th. Fair skies persist.
16th-19th. Squally condtions into mid-atlantic states, stormy New England, then clearing, much colder.
20th-23rd. Weather deteriorates by Thanksgiving. Fair at first, then turning wet, with rain mixed with snow in New England. Cold with rain Virgina, Maryland.
24th-27th. Mostly fair, cold.
28th-30th. Generally fair weather.

1st-3rd. Snow falls from the mid-atlantic states to New England, then clearing.
4th-7th. Becoming unsettled.
8th-11th. Cold and dry.
12th-15th. Another snow storm, with significant accumulations as far south as Maryland and Virgina. Then fair, cold weather.
16th-19th. Mostly fair.
20th-23rd. Snow from Penn, New York, to Maine. Then fair.
24th-27th. Dreaming of a white Christmas? Snow possible most areas.
28th- 31st. Stormy through New England, with a heavy, wintry mix. Rainy mid-atlantic states, then fair, cold.

1st-3rd. Unsettled. Showers in the Mid-Atlantic region, then turning fair and cold. Showers could fall on the Mummers Day Parade in Philadelphia.
4th-7th. Storm sweps through western sections of Penn, and NY, bringing gust winds and moderate-to-heavy precipitation.
8th-11th. Blustery and colder, with lingering clouds and scattered snow showers and flurries.
12th-15th. Mostly fair skies.
16th-19th. Wet weather, then turning fair and cold.
20th-23rd. Heavy snow for New England, with lighter amounts father south.
24th-27th. Most snow and flurries.
28th-31st. sharp cold front delivers snow and rain showers, followed by clearing and cold.

1st-3rd. Fair skies.
4th-7th. A sharp cold front brings gusty winds and showers of rain and snow.
8th-11th. Unsettled, with light snow and flurries.
12th-15th. Some lingering snow shower of flurries through Penn and NY into New England, then fair.
16th-19th. some snow or rain showers.
20th-23rd. Blustery and cold winds.
24th-29th. A big storm evolves out voer the ocean, perhaps giving the coast a glancing blow with some light snow, then turning fair.

1st-3rd. Fair skies.
4th-7th. Light snow or rain.
8th-11th. Showery weather possible, especially along the Mid-Atlantic region.
12th-15th. Scattered showers.
16th-19th. Unsettled weather, with mixed rain and wet snow, and gusty winds.
20th-23rd. Coastal storm brings more and precipitation for the very early Easter.
24th-27th. Shower for Virgina, Maryland to New England.
28th-31st. Yet another coastal storm! More wind, rain, and snow.


This might sound very boring to you but winter is likely to be a cold one across the northeast and this is because of a La Nina out in the pacific and we are at the end of the 11 year solar cycle, this mix with the right phase of high latitude blocking (NAO) spells coastal storm after coastal storm. Last year looked like a bad winter too but a El Nino developed and the first half of the season was rather pathetic.

Weather is a big cycle and the last time we were at the minimum solar cycle (95-96) NYC had over 80 inches of snow! That winter also dumped snow so deep in my yard here in northwest Jersey that my four foot pool was missing and the cars were blocked by 10 foot drifts! Let's see if winter makes a repeat of this great season.

This summer ended below average this year with
- 4 days of record low highs
- 4 days above 90 (way below average)
- 0 record highs
- high of 57 on 8/22 (october average)
- Science proved 1934 was hottest year ever (not 1998)
- Parts of Greenland never got above zero since last summer

I had much more of my outlook but the farmers almanac with was "unexpected" took the responsibility of being wrong off my head. Thank god. Cold weather and snowy conditions can be expected though. The artic is already losing 23 minutes a day and cooling down rapidly. Expect snow blogs to start SOON!

First Entry, the season begins.


North Jersey is one places that expierences the "4 seasons". My personal favorite time of the year is September-April. I live in northwest Jersey myself and I may tend to focus on weather here than the weather in the east, and I am sorry about that one. Weather can be quite different from where I live to near the city. In fact, the temperature is 4-8 warmer there than it is here. I am a global warming skeptic and trust me, I can put up quite an argument. Here are some of the things I will talk about in this region specific blog:

1. Fall foilage (from the fall folilage network)
2. Climate change debate
3. Northwest Jersey weather
4. Northeast Jersey weather
5. Model hype
6. Local ski resorts
7. Snow outlooks
8. Whatever else I find interesting

First blog entry: (Fall foilage)

September 8 , 2007

Welcome to the 2007 foliage season! Labor Day has passed, marking the unofficial end of summer and the beginning of our coverage of the fall foliage. This is The Foliage Network's ninth year covering the foliage in the Northeast.

The summer temperatures in the Northeast U.S. have been, on average, close to normal with departures from normal ranging from -2F to +2F. In portions of southern Vermont, western New York, northwest Pennsylvania, southeast Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey, it was slight warmer, with departures from normal in the +2F to +4F.

Analysis of three month (June-August) precipitation in the Northeast is also very close to normal, on average. A few areas of note include the Adirondacks in northern New York where the 3-month period was exceptionally dry (2.00" of precipitation or more below normal); moderately dry (0.80" to 1.29" of precipitation below normal) conditions in central Maine, southeast Vermont, western New York, central Massachusetts and portions of central Pennsylvania. In contrast, it was moderate moist (0.80" to 1.29" of precipitation above normal) in coastal Maine, northeast Vermont, southwest Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and Long Island, New York. Also of interest is the month of August, in which much of the Northeast was very dry. Let's hope we get some rain in September.

There is not much yet to report, as expected, at this early date in September. However, there have been reports of the typical early color in some young and distressed trees and in some of the "show-offs" which are those trees that change earlier than others on an annual basis. This is no cause for alarm and is not an indicator of early change. There have also been reports of many leaves turning brown and falling from walnut and poplar trees. Again, no cause for alarm as these species are not widespread in the Northeast.

This information provided by Marek D. Rzonca, The Foliage Network.

Here is a picture to show the current fall foliage in Northwest Jersey: (Not too much going on)