Monday, March 31, 2008

I don't think the world is flat?

As many of us heard Al Gore was bashing the global warming skeptics once again. This time he may have took it to far, in fact being skeptical of the anthropogenic global warming theory I was offended. This is what Al Gore had to say on his 60 minutes interview:

Reporter: "There's still a lot of skepticism about whether global warming is man made."

Gore: "I don't think there's a lot. I think there’s…"

Reporter: "Well, there's pretty impressive people like the vice president. He said, 'We don't know what causes it.'"

Gore: "You’re talking about Dick Cheney."

Reporter: "Yeah, but others. And they say: we don’t know what causes it and why spend all this money till we really know."

Gore: "I think that those people are in such a tiny, tiny minority now with their point of view. They’re almost like the ones who still believe that the moon landing was staged in a movie lot in Arizona and those who believe the earth is flat. That demeans them a little bit, but it’s not that far off."

First of all this is a man who refuses to have a one on one debate with a a skeptic of global warming. Why is this? He claims that "the debate is over" but it isn't. This is a man who has told the people of this planet that global warming is real and cause by man and calls it a "fact", for him to call it fact means that he is lieing because there is not one solid piece of evidence that supports the theory, not one. This same man is making millions upon millions of dollars with his political agenda, and he claims oil company's are in it for the money, what about him? Also, this planet has millions of starving people and instead of helping out that large population of the earth Gore would rather have money go toward bio-fuels (which don't help reduce emissions), research renewable engery (which I agree with, but others things are more important), and ofcourse running oil company's out of business. And while all this happens, millions in other countries and our own die from starvation and disease. And to think that this man won the nobel peace prize, he seems more like the anti-christ to me...

That might sound a little harsh, but think about it? Should we try to stop something that we are only guessing is happening? Gore claims the earth "has a fever", well if someone you loved was said to be sick but the doctors didn't know what it was and wanted to treat them by giving them dangerous drugs or operation that could kill them, would you let them? Would you let them treat a loved one for something they are just "guessing" they have, wouldn't you want tests done to prove it? Evidence? Then why would we let them mess with our planet, and our economy for something they are just "guessing" about? Think about it...

Sunday, March 30, 2008

North East Storms Conference

Between March 14th-16th 2008 twelve of the meteorology students ranging from their first year up to senior year went up to Springfield Massachuetts for the 33rd annual North East Storms Conference. The point of the conference is to see presentations, meet others in the major, check out posters, and learn a thing or two, but I found out something else as well. It's also about getting to spend time with friends that share commons interests that you have and getting to know each other better. All my other friends don't care to hear about snowstorms, the NAO, global warming, GFS and NAM models, la nina, solar irradiance, or anything that I have a strong interest in. It's fun be able to have a 2 way, 3 way, 4 way, or 5 way conversation about the weather or the climate with people who can understand what you are telling them and they can respond back with their own ideas. Just to think that this time last year I didn't know any of my friends that I have now and I wonder how I kept my sanity without having a weather or climate related conversation. While we were up in Springfield sitting down eating dinner we were all talking, laughing, arguing, making fun of each other, wanting more butter, and it felt just like a family. We will all remember the trip for a long time to come and wish that we could go back in time and expierence it all over again.

Check out the story clip about our trip, it's a comedy so be prepared to laugh.

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Nor'easter 2010?

We have had a lack of snow these past two years and I wanted to know when our next big Nor'easter is coming for us...

Last year Sussex county had between 25-35 inches of snowfall and this year was a little better with 38-48 inches of the white stuff. For New York city, that would be more than average, but just 40 miles west of NYC and 1,000-1,800 feet up these numbers are rather pathetic. Average snowfall from the past 10 year (not including the last two) is 65-80 inches over the area. But when I averaged in the past two years and got rid of the first two, it's only 57-67 inches.

Why should I be nagging with totals like that still? Anyway... I found a trend...

Great Nor'easters (for our area)

-The storm of February 12, 1983 (hit us with two feet...)

*3 years 11 months 10 days...

-The storm of January 23, 1987 (dumped up to 18 inches...)

*4 year 9 months 8 days later...

-Perfect Storm October 31, 1991 (didn't give us any snow...)

*1 year 4 months and 14 days later...

-Super storm of March 14, 1993 (dumped over 2 feet on us)

*2 years 9 months 25 days later...

-The blizzard of January 8, 1996 (dumped 38 inches at my house)

*4 years 11 months 23 days later...
-The storm of December 31, 2000 (layed down 25 inches of snow)

*2 years 1 month 18 days...

-Presidents day storm of February 18, 2003 (27 inches in Netcong...)

*2 years 11 months and 22 days later...

-Valentines storm of February 12, 2006 (27 inches in NYC...)

Order of those years goes kinda like this:

~3,4,2,3,4,2,3, (4? ) gives or take a few months, but its there!

~end, middle, begining, end, middle begining, (end?) of the season... give or take a few weeks

Which means our next storm should be 4 years from February 12th 2006 toward the end of the season. My forecast for our next big storm is the first week of March in 2010. Tell me what you think, remember, it's just an idea that I had, so think about it?

Until then, if you wanna see a Nor'easter, look at this picture, looks like a hurricane to me:

Friday, March 21, 2008

Global warming Poll

Ok, well I started a global warming poll a few weeks ago and I only got around 18 votes. If you look to the right of the page you will find where you can cast your vote if you believe in anthropogenic global warming, if your a denier, or if you are in between. Let's see what the general public believes, it should be interesting....

Remember we are voting on if global warming is caused by humans or not. The earths temperature is rising, but is it us? That's what I want to know from you!

Monday, March 17, 2008

Frost line in Jersey

Check out this frost line. It's not even on a tall mountain. The line was only about 100 feet up in elevation and it was raining where I was in the valley.

Just another picture....

See this snow showers up in the mountain, I got in the car and drove about 2 minutes.

This picture is in the middle of that snow shower when it was sprinkling about 1/2 mile away. So odd and I love it...

Snow news is good news...

After taking a break with having no snow I am getting back into storm watch mode because I see a pattern setting up which could make March go out like a lion? Well maybe not but lets just check out what the models are saying... (All maps are clickable)

First off, some people have been telling me we are getting a snowstorm on Tuesday, I love it when people try to convince me this things when I know better... You can trust me, its going to be all rain...

Let's skip into this weekend, I'm talking border line long-range. Well, it is long range. Anything past 3 days for me is not trust worthy therefore too far out. It's pretty pathetic considering todays technology. This shows some snow flurries getting into our area and if it comes a little closer we might be getting a dusting, but nothing to get excited. It's just good to see the flakes fly!

Now this is where things get interesting. A big storm is on the models and with a negative NAO I will bet money it will happen. But where it tracks is completely unknown. Lets see the DGEX, GFS, and EURO models. Each show a storm passing to our south with unseasonable cold weather for this time of the year and quite impressive if you ask me. I don't think the cold air will be this strong and if the storm track is just right when can be right in a nice swath of spring time snow. This could be our last chance, if that has not already passed... (Click for bigger images)

The extremely long range shows a blocking pattern setting up with very cold air for this time of the year. I also believe that as soon as April hits spring with start up and cold and snow won't be seen until next fall... This is upsetting to me but you can expect tons of global warming blogs, and I will try not to make them to biased. I will update tomorrow if the models show favorable changes..

Sunday, March 9, 2008

My trip to Stowe Vermont

This has nothing to do with the weather blog but I thought I would share this video of my trip to Vermont!

The parade has just begun...

This storm that has just passed us tracked much further west then I thought a few days ago but I saw that coming since every single storm this year has done so. Ohio really got the brunt of the storm with up to 30" inches of snow and 3-4 foot drifts. Ok, all we got was rain, about 2.58" inches actually, thats impressive! But this storm that brought all this rain will actually help out to create a blocking pattern over northern latitudes and I am pretty confident that it will happen in the coming days.

Now, there is another storm approaching for next weekend, perhaps just as bad as the one that came through but it should track a little further east this time maybe being a snowstorm for the Appalachians! But if it is rain, then this storm will only bring in a period of consistent cold and snow with a storm possibility on the 18th of March.

The NAO is expected to go negative and if it does I will bet any amount of money that a storm will form off of the eastern seaboard like it has every time this year! But now with the La Nina getting weaker it should be a track favorable to the big cities. Just hope and pray for the NAO to tank, I think it will...

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Big Snowstorm coming?

Here is my guess on the storm for March 8th. It's still way to far out so this is just a guess based off the current models. This can and will change...

Saturday, March 1, 2008

A Global Warning???

As we all know by now I am into two things, glo-bull warming and snowstorms. I can't tell you how many blogs I have written, how many people I have told, or how many times I have said this. "Yeah, I don't believe in global warming, I actually think a cooling phase is on its way". Well, I was right...

In high school people would look at me in the hallway and say "That's the kid who thinks were going into an ice age. What a quack." I won't say who said it, but I heard it. It may seem like I'm just writing a bunch of non-sense but let me explain myself.

In 2007 the world temperature took a swing never recorded by humans. In one year time the temperature world wide dropped 0.6 degrees celcius. If you don't know, the global warming theory is based off of 1 degree temperture rise. So this is BIG!
You can check out the full story right here:
I'm going to get a little scientific here so try to keep up. We have 11 year solar cycles here on planet earth and in fact the solar system. These cycles have a significant impact on our planet, when it's an active cycle solar storms can knock out communications and impact air traffic, but when there is a minimum in the solar cycle it can cause big problems with the impact of global cooling. The Maunder minimum between the years 1645-1715 marked the end of a nice warm period in human history and came in the Little Ice Age. What worries me is crop failure. Yes, it's the most important thing in our society and if crops fail millions will starve and prices will go through the roof! I'm talking $13.00 for a loaf of bread, $8.00 for a box of cereal, and $50.00 for what was once a $2.00 bottle of wine. It could happen! And depression would seem likely to happen.
I'm not shouting out Ice Age or anything, but what I am saying is that if we don't start solar cycle 24 we could face one of the largest catastrophies since the last solar minimum. And if a volcanoe were to go off during a time of solar minimum it could result in a year without a summer such as 1819... It's something to think about.... If you have any questions or critism please email me at , I love questions, and I love a debate even more!