Well it's 6:38 and I just got home from school. As I checked my weather station today's high in Netcong NJ at 1,000 feet reached 31.8 which marks the first day of the season with a below freezing high! At that same time the humidity was very low under 20%. When we look at the wet bulb temperature chart we need 27 degrees to blow snow and today's wet bulb didn't get above 22 degrees which means Mountain Creek most likely blew snow all day long, and tomorrow is going to be similar!
Now I live at 1,000 feet in elevation here in Netcong and the highest point at Mountain Creek is around 1,500 feet with the lowest being 440 feet, both at Vernon peak. For those of us who ski and board MC it has one of the lowest base elevations in the east, and actually in the entire continent! It's more like a valley that was carved out by glaciers 10,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age and doesn't have enough elevation to get some serious snowfall during the winter months. Elevation means everything and thats something that MC just doesn't have, but what they do have is one of the most powerful snowmaking systems in the region to make up for the natural snow deficit. The average snowfall here is around 65 inches per season which is not the lowest but one of the lowest averages for an east coast resort as well. But with all the disadvantages the resort has it still manages to provide 1,000 feet of skiing and riding every winter as well as the biggest terrain park in the east. That's one thing nobody will take from us, it's ALL JERSEY :)
Now I'm sure your all sick of me ranting so let's talk cold and SNOW!? Well this week will struggle with highs trying to near freezing or slightly above but a another cold shot comes in for Saturday with 510 thickness values! For those of you, which is most you, who don't know what the means basically it means a high temperature of around 25 degrees which may in fact be a record low for November I'll check on that one. We won't go above average for the rest of the month and even December will remain that way for the foreseeable future. The cold is here to stay and it's not going anywhere. Atleast not till the first week of January :(
Well, furries are possible all week long so don't be surprised to even get a dusting on some mountain tops, like Mountain Creek, Highland Lakes, Hopatcong, Netcong, Mount Olive, West Milford, Montague, Sparta, Sunrise Mountain, and other places over 1,000 feet up. You are the "snow" zones of New Jersey averaging more than anyone else, so never be surprised if you get unexpected snow. I'm not very concerned with little storms though, what I want is one that let's me take out the snow blower (if I owned one). I'm very surprised about what the models are saying for the start of next week Monday and Tuesday. (Click for bigger images on any of them)
The Candian is showing a nice band of snow over area!
The JMA is also hinting at a little snow too!
And so is
the NOGAPS but nothing much at all...
And the GFS once again goes against all the other models showing something totally different.
But as of lately the Euro model has been worth it's weight in gold bars. And it is showing a nice storm system off the coast with a band of snow on the northeast side.
Now it's still far out and the models have not be very consistent yet on the storm. The one problem is going to be the exact path. The snow band will be a narrow one and it could either happen over the shore, our area (Mountain Creek), or just north of our area. The Euro here most likely favors the shore but things can change. If the snow band does occur over our area then expect 2-4 inches of nice fluffy snow but I'm only giving a 30% chance right now until more data and model runs come out. KEEP CHECKING BACK FOR MORE EVERYDAY!