Saturday, February 28, 2009

Snow Map, March comes like a lion!

Wow, GFS went to heavy high snow ratios: (That's a good thing!)

Snow map: (May need some adjustment)

Powerful storm will slam east coast!

Just remember that yes, a powerful storm is coming up the coast, that is for certain. What we really want to know is who is getting what. That's the million dollar question, so let's look at what we got.

First up is the atmospheric sounding for 06z on Monday, this will tell us what kind of precipitation we will get. Looking at the model below all I can say is wow, it's most certainly snow, and very heavy at that. If you live in Northwest Jersey it's an all snow event with absolutely no chance for rain, freezing rain, and sleet. A first in some time.

Now that we determined what type of precipitation will fall, let's look at the models. First up is heavy weight champion NCEP's GFS: (Clearly showing the bulk going off the coast)

Yeah, I didn't like the GFS how about the NAM: (It's got the moisture but has it going off to sea, but is having trouble where to put the high pressure off to the north west, which is typical)

The question now is are any NCEP models showing a big snowstorm for Northwest Jersey, or North Jersey as a whole? Take a look at the NGM: (Not the most reliable model but it does show 12+ for the NJ ski resorts)

Let's take a look at the EURO and Canadian models: (Both tracking the low closer. Big snow?)

Now, I will post a snow map after the 12z models come out. I have a feeling the storm is going to track further west with high ratio snows for the higher elevations of northwest Jersey. It's going to be in the teens, windy, and with heavy snow. Perhaps blizzard conditions, or I could be completely wrong, but I don't think so. Of course a shift just 30 miles either direction could mean all the difference.

Friday, February 27, 2009

Could it be?

What a surprise, the model is now tracking a low up the coast with a negative tilted trough. If this continues on the 06z runs in the morning then I will have to draw the 10"-15" line right over north Jersey. Note**(IF THIS TREND ON THE MODELS CONTINUES)**

It's going to be a sleepless 6 hours for me because I really think this storm has "potential", snowmap, models, soundings, and etc will be posted tomorrow morning. Check back!

It's coming!?

It's gunna snow....

It's most definitely going to snow, from Florida to Maine! What? Yes it is, as of right now this storm could go down in the books as one to remember but something still seems fishy about it. Joe Bastardi from says that up to a foot could fall across the area. I personally don't see what he is seeing, I want to take a look at the models in the morning at 06z and then I will post a snowmap. I will be waking up early because I am getting very excited.

What's it going to be?

Thursday, February 26, 2009

No teams?

Well usually when a storm event nears I make up two to three teams of the weather models and we try to see which is correct, as of 18z on Thursday this is what each model is saying, and not one agrees with the other:

UKMET- Storm going off coast maybe a flurry

Canadian- Snowstorm of 4-8 inches

European- Storm going way to sea (nothing)

NAM- Heavy rains of 1-2 inches

GFS- Light snow with storm going out to sea

NOGAPS- Wintry mix 1-3 inches of snow

JMA- Massive snowstorm 8-12+ inches

Okay, as of right now I have no idea what is going to happening. Things are most certainly going to be interesting to see what actually happens. Personally I think the storm will end up tracking to far west and personally the NOGAPS model looks like the best bet, as of right now....

Check back tomorrow after the 12z models come out

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

A look into the future

Short Range: (Wed Feb 25th- Saturday Feb 28th)

The short range is looking very bad if you are into skiing/riding across the eastern US as a rain maker will move into most the region. Unless you live at the northern tip of Maine, its mostly just a rain event. The good thing is that areas with normally icy conditions (NJ+PA resorts) will now have softer snow and the deep snow base will most certainly live through the rain storm because man made snow is strong stuff. The three to five feet that fell in the mountains of New England in the past few days will most certainly be melted down and turned to ice for the weekend so it wouldn't be wise to make a trip up there this weekend, our home turf will have better snow conditions. By the weekend things cool down and another storm system is on the horizon, but this time colder air will be around and that starts the medium range.

Medium range: (Sunday Mar 1st-Thursday Mar 5th)

To start off the first week of March, which will most definitely come in like a lion, a storm system will ride up the eastern United States. As of right now all models are showing a snow event for the area including the European, and you can see that below:
Don't get too excited though. Given the trend of the entire season thus far it will most likely track further west than the models predict and the big snows will be up north and in the mountains. While the main storm track this season has not done justice to the people living in the big cities for us here in northwest Jersey we now have between 30"-45" inches (37.8" in Netcong) of snow with the most in the highest of terrain. The storms in the past usually brought us a few inches of snow to start, then a brief period of sleet, several hours of freezing rain, then a period of drizzle to end. I have no reason to think that it will happen any other way, in fact its the most likely thing I can see happening. Of course since a storm is on the way I will post blogs more frequently to let you know what the MODELS are saying, and then give my personal opinion of them.

After the storm moves through a deep trough will move in and temperatures will be ten or more degrees below average for March, if any patch work snow making at the resorts needs to be done then this is the time to do it. After what could be the last major arctic blast of the season a warm and mild Pacific air mass will move in and will most certainly affect trail counts across the region and spring riding and skiing will begin to take place. This starts the long range.

Long Range: (Friday Mar 6th-March 15th) **Note subject to change

The seconds week of March looks to more mild with an active storm track but with cold air just to the north any storm could be a potential snow maker like the one showing up for Wednesday the 11th. March is one of my favorite months of the year mainly because anything can happen with the battle of the air masses going on, awesome things. It's very interesting meteorologically speaking just to see the season literally changing in what seems just days in time. By this time the NAO will mostly likely be at a strong negative blocking pattern and the wavelengths of troughs begin to shorten, this could set up a snowy pattern with melting going on at the same time as true arctic air is in short supply.

Beyond: (March 16th-April)

By the third to fourth week of March Mountain Creek is typically closed as all the snow has melted away. But that doesn't mean it can't still snow, it's still too far to tell but late March and early April snow events are not unheard of and are actually common in northwest Jersey. Old man winter had his shot by this time and if he didn't please you then there is always next year, and my Winter Outlook for 2009-2010 will have strong chances for a February blizzard. Just going strictly off of statistics. This time of year I typically put the snowboarding gear into the attic and get out the fishing pole since trout season is right around the corner!

Monday, February 23, 2009


Well I certainly enjoyed my weekend up at Killington Vermont. I was going to go to Whiteface NY originally but changed my mind while I was driving on the thruway, talk about a last minute......

Anyway I enjoyed my several FEET of fresh powder up there in Killington and now back to reality here in Jersey. Here is the reality: "I don't see anything at all in our near future that will be a major/minor snow accumulation", it's not that it has been too warm, but it's just been very dry. The short range is really not looking good with average temperatures, meaning slightly above freezing during the day and cold nights, which is the worst possible thing for those of us who want nice soft snow. It will be ICE at the NJ ski resorts for some time into the future, at least until March?

The good thing about March is that the temperatures rise up enough so that the snow base can soften up and provide some great spring conditions and the potential is around for some of the strongest and most wild storms ever seen off the east coast (IE March Super Storm 1993), or we could get nothing at all (IE Last March). As of right now I have not gotten a chance to look into the long range, I can't tonight because House is on (Channel 5 at 8:00 btw), so tomorrow evening I will post a long range forecast...

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

NAM was right...

Well, the system is now lifting out and yes, the higher elevations of northwest Jersey did their 2-3 inches of wet snow, including me! Place like high point, sunrise mountain, the allamuchy's, and the hamburg mountains mostly likely picked up 3-5 inches of the white stuff. Unfortunately the only of verifying it is to go on a hike and measure it.

Let's see what happens with this weekend storm. I won't be around though, Whiteface Mountain at Lake Placid calls my name.

Is the NAM right?

Okay, well I can't really tell if the NAM is correct or not. The recent run shows an even colder solution with more precipitation. Backing it up is the NMM model, Canadian, and now the GFS has trended slightly colder (but not to the extent of the NAM). The only issues we have working against us is
1: Lack of current snow cover
2: Warm soil temperatures
3: Lack of cold air

If we can over come these issues (all related to temperature) by getting colder air in, than we have a shot. I really believe the area will pick up a few inches of snow if the models are correct, and the highest elevations will get as much as eight inches (at high point). Then again, I am only really going off of one or two models. Let's see if this model below is right or not:

Who to believe

The NAM is still showing that colder solution while the GFS is going back to warm. The NAM is what most forecasters use for short range events so maybe we can just throw out the GFS just for today? The highest elevations will most certainly get more snow than the valleys, right now the places to get hit hardest looks to be Highland Lakes, Montague, Lake Hopacatcong, Mount Olive, West Milford, and the Allamuchy mountains. As for that central valley of Sussex, Hackettstown, and eastern Morris sorry...

Let's see what happens with the 12z model

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Elevation snows?

Well at first to me it looked like this upcoming storm would be mostly snow but not accumulate to more than half an inch or so. The latest NAM and GFS at 00z just came out showing a colder solution than the previous runs. If the model below is correct 2-4 inches across most of Morris, Sussex, and Warren counties with 4-8 inches across the areas above 1,000 feet. Let's see what the models tomorrow say, if they stay with the current solution, or get colder than things could get interesting.

Here is the NAM, click for bigger image:

Monday, February 16, 2009

Back from Vermont

Well, I am back from Vermont. And honestly I had no idea I was going till literally the last minute before I went. There's something about the Green Mountains of Vermont that makes them my favorite on the east coast, not sure what though. (Click for bigger images)

Oh yeah, now I remember....

Anyway, we have a storm system coming up west of the mountains this week with a secondary forming off of the coast and going out sea. It needs to be watched for some minor accumulations but I'm really looking at the storm system coming up for this weekend being shown on the GFS model right now. More updates after I wax my board and hit up the mall.

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Seriously, again?

Well, the GFS and EURO are both showing a major snowstorm for us on Wed/Thu of next week bringing a foot plus with strong winds. Don't get excited, given the season thus far, we all know whats going to happen. There are two options

1. It goes out to sea
2. It tracks to far inland bringing ice

Of course, while it's unlikely to me that it will be a snowstorm, always keep the unlikely in the realm of possibility...

More updates this weekend

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Wednesday warmth

Temperatures in the 60's, anything goes!

If your reading my blog today (Wednesday the 11th) get the heck off the computer and go OUTSIDE! It's beautiful! Anything goes today :)

-Go Snowboarding (T-shirt)
-Go Mountain biking
-Go hiking
-Go walk your dog
-Go ice fish (ice is still strong enough in most places, walk with a 2x4)
-Go hunting
-Go for a walk/walk yourself
-Go fishing (trout are thriving this time of year)
-Go to the park
-Go snowshoeing? (I still have two inches of snow, that will be gone SOON)
-Go take nature photos
-JUST GET OUTSIDE! Winters revenge is coming, and don't be surprised to have a T-Storm tomorrow with thunder/rain/lighting/and snow? Yeah, it's that extreme....

If you have read to this point, GO OUTSIDE! :) Enjoy this awesome day!

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

It's a short break

As you can tell, I have been taking a short break in blogging due to the lack of wintry weather and given how boring it's been. Of course, in a few short days I will get back into gear and if you are someone who doesn't like to hear about winter weather then read no further...

If you like winter weather then come see Paul Kocin at Kean University next week, he is the man who wrote the book on snowstorms. A lot of people from News12, New York news stations, NWS/NCEP, and well known people in the field will be there. Come and network! It's the first step into getting to know people in high places. Check out the link below:

Saturday, February 7, 2009

Long Range Feb-Mar

I have been working very hard on this long range outlook and I have a very high confidence level in what I am putting out. I am talking 85% worth of certainty, while it may not be day-to-day forecast, it's pretty darn close.

The Now - Feb 12th:
Well we have broken out of our deep freeze and temperatures rising into the 30's-40's will be the common day time highs and any precipitation that falls will be the form of liquid, thank the rain gods that none of that rain will be heavy, so skiing and boarding across the region will be nice soft conditions for those of you who would like to try to some new tricks.

Feb 13th - Feb 17th:

This will be a stormy period to say the least, a system will roll by on the 13th bringing with it mostly a rain event but cold air will follow the system. Now the dates to watch out for snow storms are Feb 15th and Feb 17th for some warm air advection snows, typically a 3-6 inch event but those amounts will most likely change by then. Temperatures during these dates will range for upper 20's-30's for day time highs with plenty of cold air at night for snow making. Here is a look at northern hemisphere circulation at that time.

Feb 18th - Feb 23rd:

During this time period two to three different storm systems will be able to run up the east coast and possibly become major northeast storms. Temperatures will remain around to below freezing for day time highs so if you like snowboarding or skiing, pack powder conditions are going to be the normal.

February 24th and beyond:

A stormy period is likely and with a negative phase of the NAO at it's strongest this time of the year it can be a big scoring time for snowstorms. The period will bring warm days and very cold days as the spring time air begins the long battle with the cold arctic air. It's so far out that it is difficult to pin exactly what will happen.


A cold and stormy period will begin after Friday 13th and winter will kick back into full gear after a brief let up. Below is a map of the snow/cold axis. Over the winter the line has been moving east and now the I-95 corridor will finally be apart of that. We are last on winters list and that could be hurtful given the high sun angle and the transition to spring, but it could be beneficial in terms of wild storms! (The line represents the main axis of snow, not the rain/snow line)

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Long Range Postponed

The long range looks very interesting, I am still gathering maps and going over certain trends and looking up what they mean. The long range blog is going to be a long one with lots of charts and some in depth meteorological lingo, so I am trying to make it easy to understand. Tomorrow is my long day at school so I will have to post this weekend. Be sure to check back then, I have a feeling your going to like it...

Is 13 really so bad?

So, anyway, it appears my original forecast came true, I thank one of the blog readers for pointing that out for me. This reminds us to stick to your gut feeling, and I had a feeling that the storm would track further west than the models showed, and it did. Our next chances for some serious snow is Friday the 13th and then again on the 15th of the month, the end of February will be colder and snowier than the first half and that will continue into March. If you don't know already, March is the month where the NAO is usually strongly negative and that means big storms are not out of the question. Winter is far from over and in fact I don't think we have even seen the worst of it...

As I look outside at my snow depth stick I can no longer see the 1 foot line, with a 14 inch snow pack it isn't going anywhere, and it's a hard packed snow pack. I melted it down again today and the liquid equivalent is 2.60" inches, that's INSANE and should be more like 30" inches on the ground!!! Northwest Jersey has now had 3 to 4 feet of snow in the higher elevations, which is now slightly above average.

Folks, we are having a BAD winter, while we may not be getting blizzards, we are breaking records for consecutive days of snow pack, January only got above freezing for 32 hours, and every month since October has been below average, significantly. The snow that fell in mid December is still in the piles on the parking lots and curbs along your street and since December 31st snow cover has been on going and adding up over time. Today will mark the 40th day this winter season that the temperature did not rise above freezing in Netcong and high point monument will have it's 50th day this season not above freezing! The usual is 32 days per winter season and we are already well above that...

And what's with London getting 10 inches of snow the other day? They have been getting snow since October which isn't supposed to happen. Shifts in oscillations are occurring and the sun is still spotless, global cooling is upon us and seems likely to occur for the next 30 years until the world begins to warm again. That's my personal opinion and if you would like to challenge that please do, it's a topic of debate, and I would be interested in your thoughts.

I will talk about long range tomorrow and provide some interesting statistics of this winter vs. all the previous winters since 2004.

Monday, February 2, 2009

I don't know

I have no idea whats going on with the storm. Never in my life have I seen the models so inconsistent and out of agreement. I just don't know....

Sunday, February 1, 2009

Snow is coming

Alright this map doesn't show how much snow is going to fall, just the potential shown by the 12z NAM. If we can get the storm to trend more west than we will get into that sweet pot of 18 inches plus! Let's wait and see. Check back later this evening after 6:00 when the 18z models come out.

Major storm 12-18 inches?

Yeah the 00z models show well over a foot of THUNDER SNOW and winds gusting over 35 mph for 3 hours or more. That's a blizzard by the books! Tomorrow morning I will update on the latest, let's see if the models keep this current track. Check back tomorrow morning, this is going to get interesting....