Saturday, February 28, 2009
Now, I will post a snow map after the 12z models come out. I have a feeling the storm is going to track further west with high ratio snows for the higher elevations of northwest Jersey. It's going to be in the teens, windy, and with heavy snow. Perhaps blizzard conditions, or I could be completely wrong, but I don't think so. Of course a shift just 30 miles either direction could mean all the difference.
Friday, February 27, 2009
It's going to be a sleepless 6 hours for me because I really think this storm has "potential", snowmap, models, soundings, and etc will be posted tomorrow morning. Check back!
What's it going to be?
Thursday, February 26, 2009
UKMET- Storm going off coast maybe a flurry
Canadian- Snowstorm of 4-8 inches
European- Storm going way to sea (nothing)
NAM- Heavy rains of 1-2 inches
GFS- Light snow with storm going out to sea
NOGAPS- Wintry mix 1-3 inches of snow
JMA- Massive snowstorm 8-12+ inches
Okay, as of right now I have no idea what is going to happening. Things are most certainly going to be interesting to see what actually happens. Personally I think the storm will end up tracking to far west and personally the NOGAPS model looks like the best bet, as of right now....
Check back tomorrow after the 12z models come out
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
After the storm moves through a deep trough will move in and temperatures will be ten or more degrees below average for March, if any patch work snow making at the resorts needs to be done then this is the time to do it. After what could be the last major arctic blast of the season a warm and mild Pacific air mass will move in and will most certainly affect trail counts across the region and spring riding and skiing will begin to take place. This starts the long range.
Long Range: (Friday Mar 6th-March 15th) **Note subject to change
The seconds week of March looks to more mild with an active storm track but with cold air just to the north any storm could be a potential snow maker like the one showing up for Wednesday the 11th. March is one of my favorite months of the year mainly because anything can happen with the battle of the air masses going on, awesome things. It's very interesting meteorologically speaking just to see the season literally changing in what seems just days in time. By this time the NAO will mostly likely be at a strong negative blocking pattern and the wavelengths of troughs begin to shorten, this could set up a snowy pattern with melting going on at the same time as true arctic air is in short supply.
Beyond: (March 16th-April)
By the third to fourth week of March Mountain Creek is typically closed as all the snow has melted away. But that doesn't mean it can't still snow, it's still too far to tell but late March and early April snow events are not unheard of and are actually common in northwest Jersey. Old man winter had his shot by this time and if he didn't please you then there is always next year, and my Winter Outlook for 2009-2010 will have strong chances for a February blizzard. Just going strictly off of statistics. This time of year I typically put the snowboarding gear into the attic and get out the fishing pole since trout season is right around the corner!
Monday, February 23, 2009
Anyway I enjoyed my several FEET of fresh powder up there in Killington and now back to reality here in Jersey. Here is the reality: "I don't see anything at all in our near future that will be a major/minor snow accumulation", it's not that it has been too warm, but it's just been very dry. The short range is really not looking good with average temperatures, meaning slightly above freezing during the day and cold nights, which is the worst possible thing for those of us who want nice soft snow. It will be ICE at the NJ ski resorts for some time into the future, at least until March?
The good thing about March is that the temperatures rise up enough so that the snow base can soften up and provide some great spring conditions and the potential is around for some of the strongest and most wild storms ever seen off the east coast (IE March Super Storm 1993), or we could get nothing at all (IE Last March). As of right now I have not gotten a chance to look into the long range, I can't tonight because House is on (Channel 5 at 8:00 btw), so tomorrow evening I will post a long range forecast...
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Let's see what happens with this weekend storm. I won't be around though, Whiteface Mountain at Lake Placid calls my name.
1: Lack of current snow cover
2: Warm soil temperatures
3: Lack of cold air
If we can over come these issues (all related to temperature) by getting colder air in, than we have a shot. I really believe the area will pick up a few inches of snow if the models are correct, and the highest elevations will get as much as eight inches (at high point). Then again, I am only really going off of one or two models. Let's see if this model below is right or not:
Let's see what happens with the 12z model
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Here is the NAM, click for bigger image:
Monday, February 16, 2009
Oh yeah, now I remember....
Anyway, we have a storm system coming up west of the mountains this week with a secondary forming off of the coast and going out sea. It needs to be watched for some minor accumulations but I'm really looking at the storm system coming up for this weekend being shown on the GFS model right now. More updates after I wax my board and hit up the mall.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
1. It goes out to sea
2. It tracks to far inland bringing ice
Of course, while it's unlikely to me that it will be a snowstorm, always keep the unlikely in the realm of possibility...
More updates this weekend
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
If your reading my blog today (Wednesday the 11th) get the heck off the computer and go OUTSIDE! It's beautiful! Anything goes today :)
-Go Snowboarding (T-shirt)
-Go Mountain biking
-Go walk your dog
-Go ice fish (ice is still strong enough in most places, walk with a 2x4)
-Go for a walk/walk yourself
-Go fishing (trout are thriving this time of year)
-Go to the park
-Go snowshoeing? (I still have two inches of snow, that will be gone SOON)
-Go take nature photos
-JUST GET OUTSIDE! Winters revenge is coming, and don't be surprised to have a T-Storm tomorrow with thunder/rain/lighting/and snow? Yeah, it's that extreme....
If you have read to this point, GO OUTSIDE! :) Enjoy this awesome day!
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
If you like winter weather then come see Paul Kocin at Kean University next week, he is the man who wrote the book on snowstorms. A lot of people from News12, New York news stations, NWS/NCEP, and well known people in the field will be there. Come and network! It's the first step into getting to know people in high places. Check out the link below:
Saturday, February 7, 2009
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
As I look outside at my snow depth stick I can no longer see the 1 foot line, with a 14 inch snow pack it isn't going anywhere, and it's a hard packed snow pack. I melted it down again today and the liquid equivalent is 2.60" inches, that's INSANE and should be more like 30" inches on the ground!!! Northwest Jersey has now had 3 to 4 feet of snow in the higher elevations, which is now slightly above average.
Folks, we are having a BAD winter, while we may not be getting blizzards, we are breaking records for consecutive days of snow pack, January only got above freezing for 32 hours, and every month since October has been below average, significantly. The snow that fell in mid December is still in the piles on the parking lots and curbs along your street and since December 31st snow cover has been on going and adding up over time. Today will mark the 40th day this winter season that the temperature did not rise above freezing in Netcong and high point monument will have it's 50th day this season not above freezing! The usual is 32 days per winter season and we are already well above that...
And what's with London getting 10 inches of snow the other day? They have been getting snow since October which isn't supposed to happen. Shifts in oscillations are occurring and the sun is still spotless, global cooling is upon us and seems likely to occur for the next 30 years until the world begins to warm again. That's my personal opinion and if you would like to challenge that please do, it's a topic of debate, and I would be interested in your thoughts.
I will talk about long range tomorrow and provide some interesting statistics of this winter vs. all the previous winters since 2004.