Fall is here, and its going to feel like it

This is my first blog of the fall season and on that note we should take a look at the current fall

foliage:

Most of the state has little to no change but the northwest corner is showing up 30% color and some of the deeper valleys and ridge tops are near moderate color.

Now let's talk cold air. Yes I said cold air. On Tuesday the 29th the strongest cold front of the season will bring the first freeze to most of northwest Jersey and points south will get their first frost. Now since harvest is still a few weeks away this could be a crop killing cold spell, and farms deep in valleys will suffer the greatest loss.

The cold spell will be at it's height on the first of October and will last at least five days. We may have seen the last of 70 degrees + days until next spring. The season is changing and that will be very evident in the upcoming week. Hang tight everyone Mountain Creek will open in 70 days, or maybe even less? Only time will tell. But keep checking back in cause if interesting weather is heading our way you can trust I'll be the first to let you know :)

Frost Advisory...

FROM NOAA:

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...  THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD DRY AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT... AND TEMPERATURES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE COLDER INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FROST.

First Frost for localized areas?

Saturday night is going to be the coldest night since May 19th when we had our last freeze. Certain locations will have their first frost, luckily it won't be a devastating crop killing frost. It will just serve as a reminder that the winter season is going to come in early this year considering this is over a month early. Places like Sparta, Walpack, Hopatcong, Dover (base of the mountain), Vernon, West Milford, High Point, and usual cold spots of Northwest Jersey look to be in the running. Like I said in my July 23rd post:

"To make a long story short, it's a cold year. It's going to continue to be cold. And the summer will come to very fast end once September hits, and winter may come even earlier this year than it did last year on October 27th. With a weak El Nino forming, negative PDO, AO, and NAO this winter will be the snowiest in the last ten years."

It's going to be a long ride though this winter, something that could potentially last the next 10-20 years. This could very well be abrupt climate change happening before our eyes. One thing is for sure, the sun is most likely the cause since it ALONE is the main driver in climate change.

Something smells fishy...

Noaa says "Summer temperature below average for U.S."

That is one statement that I agree with, but something seemed odd to me. Notice how New Jersey had a "near normal" summer. First off, there is no "normal" only average when it comes to weather and I'm sure a lot of people agree with me. And second how were we near normal???

Netcong (-1.3 degrees F)

June: -1.8 degrees F

July: -3.3 degrees F

Aug: +1.1 degrees F

Not only was Netcong below average by over a degree but it was like that just about everywhere in the state. It clearly was not near average, and I don't know how NOAA can tell that to the people who were here to experience one of the coldest summers in recent memory. Believe nothing that you hear, and only half of what you see...

Eastern Trough Mid Month?

During the middle of September a trough will develop over the eastern part of the country bringing with it the coldest air mass since the spring. This will most certainly remind everyone that the season is changing and summer is winding down.

fall is coming. . . The snow isnt too far behind. Hold tight!