Will we have a white Christmas?

My last post talked about a potential storm for this weekend that the Euro was catching onto. This storm however will not effect us here in New Jersey. The Euro was wrong this time around and yes the GFS model was correct the entire time. I find that odd considering it's been the complete opposite this season.

Below is the map for the "storm" this Sunday off the Euro. Significant change!

So will we be able to get snow on the ground for Christmas? Our next system could clip the eastern seaboard on Tuesday but temperatures look marginal at best, and even if we did squeeze out the 1" necessary for a "white Christmas" I highly doubt it would make it till the 25th. 

On Christmas Eve it looks like it will be miserable outside. A good night to just stay home and watch a good movie with the family. The rain will even be falling as far north as Vermont and Maine.

The probability of a white Christmas looks very low, unless by chance the tail end of this system could put down a quick inch. I would say chances are below 20%.

Now, will it ever snow? The system to watch right now is for December 26th. The set up looks much better for a northeast snow event and plenty of cold air should be in place by then. After this storm system temperatures really start to take a plunge and it looks like winter really gets cranking.