We get ripped off yet again...

In the old days we use to get snowstorms with brief periods of sleet. Now why is it that entire storms can be sleet? The storm today started as sleet and quickly went over snow and extremely heavy at that, in fact I picked up two inches of snow in just 30 minutes! The temperatures will remained below freezing during the duration of both storms but the problem is high up in the atmosphere where there is warmer air aloft. Accumulations will be greatly affected by the sleet and ony your position north can save you from that.

As for this weekend, I am on edge right now. The track of the storm is the most important part and 20 miles either way will mean the difference between rain and heavy snow. I will post my final forecast for this weekend tomorrow night and I have a feeling we will all be let down, I have this strange vibe about it... Don't get bumbed out just yet, things can always change. I hope...

Update on both storms...

For those of you wondering I have not overlooked the storm coming on Thursday of this week, I just didn't see it as big of a deal as I do right now. It looks like 6-10 inches will accumulate during the storm and that snow is not going to go anywhere any time soon. This storm will lack the winds of course which is a good thing but snow will be VERY heavy and 1-2 inch an hour rates will occur. Some schools may even let out early depending on the time of arrival. If you start seeing snow around 10:00 that is a good sign, because it will become heavy very fast and depending on the school an early dismissal is possible. Friday also looks good for delayes and school closures for Sussex, Western Morris, Warren, and Passaic counties.

Now onto storm number two. This one will bring with it extremely heavy snow with possible sleet mixing the farther south and east you go. Wind will be a serious issue as well as blowing and drifting of the snow. This is a Nor'easter folks and if you don't know what that is, it is one of mother natures most powerful storms. It is too early to tell but if I was a guessing man I would 8-12 inches in areas that get sleet mixing in and 12-18 inches where it stays all snow. This means that by the end of the two storms the north Jersey snowpack could reach 18-28 inches and that is Vermont like boarding and skiing. I will let you know for CERTAIN by Friday night, keep checking back for updates!

I don't have time for any colorful maps but I will try to get some on later. Think snow! And head Mountain Creek tomorrow, I sure am....

The blizzard of 2007?

Ok, right away you saw the word Blizzard which defined means: "A moderate to heavy snowfall with winds over 35mph for 3 hours or more with visibility reduced to 0-1/4 of a mile." Well we haven't had anything like that since January 8th 1996, but now 11 years later (in conjunction with the 11 year solar cycle) it could happen again. Let's talk about it a little more.

Between the time frame of Dec 15th-17th a major east coast snow storm is likely to happen but who, when, where, and how much snow is still unknown at this point. I am going to explain what will happen based off of the computer models that came out at 18UTC, Tuesday night. What I am going to show you is still just a possibility and not certain, not yet so don't get your hopes up.

First thing you want to look at living the northeast is the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) which is basically just a type of weather pattern with a negative, neutral, and positive phase. Negative phase is what we look for when we expect to get cold and snowy weather. The NAO below is forecasted to get down to -1 to -2 and that is not all that common as you can see from the past couple months. According to Kocins book when the NAO hits -1 is when most the major northeast blizzards have happened, I.E. 1996, 1978, etc.

Now let's take a look at the DGEX model which is just a down graded form the GFS mixed with the ETA. I see lots of snow...

The Euro really blows up a massive storm off the coast too!

The NAM model is a shorter range model but is begining to get into the action with the big boys!

Now for the GFS model, the only word able to describe this is "waist deep snow?". Lol, get it? That's three words! Ok, that's bad humor on my part, sorry. Well, perhaps not. It is showing some warmer air coming into the air which will allow for a period sleet but still a lot of snow, things can and will change...

Uncle Nor'easter is coming for you!

Snowmaking begins!!!

At 2:43 this morning I was woken by a beeping sound coming from my weather station. I had set the alarm to go off when the temperature hit 33.9 degrees and 47% humidity. For those of you who don't this, that equals a wet bulb of 27 degrees and therefore snowmaking is possible! Since then we have slowly been falling to a wet bulb of 25.8 degrees at 8:38 this morning. Humidity continued to drop through the day as well as the temperatures, in fact our high temperature for the day was set at mid-night with 34 degrees! And currently at 4:36 p.m the temperature is 31 and humidity is 19% to give a wet bulb of 23 which is EXCELLENT snowmaking weather!!! I expect the guns are already on at Creek or will be on within a few hours...


As for some natural snow HOLD TIGHT!!! The last few days of this month and early December are looking really GOOD for snowmaking and coastal developement.... :0

Long range outlook Nov. 20th

After taking a short break from writing blogs I am back in action. The future for cold and snow looks upsetting to snowboarders and skiers but that's only according to the models. I am going to bring you through the models and we look from potential snow events and snow making opportunities.

A resort like Mountain Creek for example can't open with natural snow. They need to make their snow to build up their snow pack. It can be up to 50 degrees F and still allow for natural snowfall but in order to actually make snow they need to use the "wet bulb" temp chart. This chart takes the current humidity in the air and the temperature, all they need is a wet bulb temperature of 27. With 0% humidity snow can be made at 40 degrees! But we live in Jersey and humidity is much higher than that. With 100% humidity it needs to be 27 degrees outside before snow can be made, check out this chart to see what I'm talking about. Wet Bulb Chart

Now all we need is a few good days of low humidity and cold temperatures. Unfortunately I do not see that in our future. Up coming this Friday we should have a high temperature of around 34 degrees and snow making could be round the clock for around 36 hours but it's not enough to open up a resort. Here is the 18UTC NAM model for Saturday morning. I know it is hard to see but it is showing temperatures holding in the upper teens which are ideal for snowmaking. I think this is the first of snowmaking for Creek.

(The blue lines are the rain/snow line and each blue line shows different thickness values of the atmosphere which means how cold it is.)

As for snowmaking after this time period the models are not showing that to be a possibility, but I am going to risk my reputation and say that early December may be good for snow making. I am taking these computer models and throwing them in the garbage. There is just one thing that is bothering me, the NAO. The NAO is like a type of weather pattern and there are two phases, the negative and the positive. The positive phase means dry and warm weather for northeast U.S. and for Europe, while the negative phase is snowy and cold for both places. Just to show you how much this effects our weather the NAO was almost completely positive last winter and that is why it was less than ideal for riding. NAO also means that the east coast of the U.S MUST be watched for coastal storms or storms getting stronger as they hit the coast. Creek just got 6 more inches of snow Monday morning and guess what? We were in a slightly negative NAO phase. Keep your eye on this chart, when that red line goes negative expect cold and snow.

The thing is this winter according to some of the long range forecasters is NOT looking to very good snow and cold wise. They think that this December could be one of the warmest on record and that scares me. I am an optimistic person and I will doubt that until the time comes, I just don't see how things are going to be so warm at the solar cycle minimum right now and a neutral to slightly negative NAO forecast this winter. I am no professional yet (not until I finish college) but I think these others ideas of our weather are wrong, this is my gut instict and not set in stone just yet. Time will tell....

SNOW:

As for snow!!! I don't see anything major yet except for some lake effect possible on Friday but keep checking back for updates.

This is quite interesting? Don't you think?

World Temperature change in past 100 years.



Doesn't this fit much better than C02?


Notice how in 1996 low NAO made it a colder year, now look at 1998 NAO peaked and its the warmest year on record? Hmm... Interesting. Too bad the NAO records only back to 1948. If you find that shocking the artic and anartic ice records are only 27 years old. How do we know 1934 (new warmest year on record) didn't have a record minimum ice extent?

Does C02 fit the temperatures better?

(I would say not.)


Whats with the 800 year lag in C02 after temperatures went up?



Ill give you the reason why, Anthropogenic Global Warming is a lie and it a phase. Come on! Man made C02 makes up a fraction of a fraction of the atmosphere and allows plants to grow healthier and bigger! C02 is also one of the weakest greenhouses and water vapor and methane are the strongest of them all. I know, let's tax water vapor! That should stop global warming.

Pattern Change!

After 17 days of not posting a single blog I am ready to restart now. I was out enjoying the good life of fishing, biking, rock climbing, canoeing, splunking, hiking, boating, off roading, waxing my snowboard, and checking the GFS weather model every 6 hours. I hope you didn't spend your whole time by the computer because pretty soon that's all you will be able to do! We are on the edge of a major pattern change going straight from August like warmth to November like chill.

The NAO and AO are something I talk about all the time because they are the two key players in our weather here in North Jersey. (http://meteomaddness.blogspot.com/2007/09/snow-watch.html - go to that old blog to learn more about the NAO and AO) Both of the two are currently taking a nose dive toward the negative side and the weather will certainly take a nose dive along with it. The negative phase means cold air/low pressure for our region, just to give you a heads up, last winter was mostly a positive phase.






Let's get to the models! First model is the DGEX which is a downgraded form of the GFS. This shows the forecasted temperatures 150 hours out. As you can see from the key White is 0 degrees C, which is 32 degrees F. (First freeze!!!!) (MAP OF DATE, SORRY)
The next model is the NMC. Most know it as the spagehtti plot. It too shows cold air and if you want to see the animation click the link. http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spag_nhsm_animation.html


The GFS model is the last but not least. The 18 UTC model just came out and is showing some days where we won't even get above 50 for the day! Im not going to post the image itself, just click the link to look at the model run! http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/index_slp_lu_loop.shtml



FALL FOILAGE!!!

The leaves are delayed a bit but they should peak in the next 8 t0 10 days! Check out the link for the Fall Foilage Network... http://www.foliagenetwork.com/reports/northeast_us/