Quick Update

After looking at the models nothing seems to have changed since Friday! Consistency tells me that the models are most likely being accurate. Ill take you through the the weather for the next two weeks:

1. The start of the new week will bring more warmth and rain

2. The mid-week to end of the week will bring seasonable conditions with very little snowmaking opportunities. Some rain and higher elevation wintry precip is possible, although nothing to get exited so by any means.

3. Around the 20th a storm will come up the coast and could be very impressive. The only problem is the cold air is lagging behind the storm and may be mostly a rain event with snow showers on the back side.

4. After that storm moves through cold air will be put in place for the Christmas break allowing for much needed snowmaking for the resorts. Maybe we could get some snow out of that cold but considering this pattern we may have to wait till January...

This week is going to be a difficult one for me to do updates, but if the long range changes I will let you know ASAP!

Here we go again...

First off take a look at what happened in the highest elevations of northwest Jersey. It was amazing! Half an inch of freezing rain:

Mountain Creeks high temperature for Saturday should only make it to 26 degrees allowing for them to rebuild the base that they lost in the previous rain/ice storm. As of now Creek is covered in a thick accumulation of ice which forced them to close down this week but will be able to open once conditions become safe and power is back on.

Longer Range:

Well after a cold start to the begining of the week it looks like things will warm back up for 4-7 days as a trough will settle in the west for the first time this winter and a ridge over the east.

GFS 18z showing warmth up the coast:

And for snow, I dont see much hope of anything until around the 20th but you know what these models are like. Its something to watch but don't get to exicted.

GFS 18z run:

DGEX run similar:

Remember, winter is far from over, in fact it actually hasn't started yet! We have a lot of winter to go, just check that in mind. What we need is a pattern change...

Wow!

Take a look at this radar shot. That is very heavy rains!

As for snow, the models are not looking very favorable with the 18z runs. Check back tomorrow, hopefully something will show up.

I'm back

Sorry for the lack of blog posting as of lately. Usually I update everyday or every other day with the very latest but I have just not had the time with all this work building up before the end of the year.

Well one thing seems for sure about this storm system coming up the coast as I write this. The models busted, all models except the European which has been doing fantastic this year. Some colder air will come down into our area later tonight changing the rain to freezing rain, then to sleet, and then to snow mainly across the highest elevations. Don't expect much in the way of accumulation though, it seems as if this pattern we are in has both cold and storms but they do not coexist at the same time and place. This may be a view of what is to come until the pattern shifts in January.

I'll update later tonight with model runs.

A Storm Lurks...

This past weekend has certainly been cold and we did manage to pick up a little bit of snow as well! Snowmaking has been non stop at the resorts and they are now open. Come Tuesday and Wednesay a storm will come up the coast and bring a mostly rain event with a little mixed precipitation on the front end but nothing to get excited for. Then it get's interesting after that as colder air will be in place and a second storm moves up the coast for Thursday into Friday. All models are currently showing snow except the Euro model, and the fact that the Euro isn't showing it makes me a bit skeptical if it's going to be rain or snow. One thing for sure is that the back side of that storm will get 6-10 inches of the white stuff, and right now the models are showing northwest Jersey in that area! Check out the models:

DGEX:




















GFS MODEL:



















After this storm it looks like we will see a 4-6 day warm up followed again by colder air for the holidays. Check back in for updates all week long!

Live from NYC!

New York City is where you can find me today, at none other than the tree lighting! (Look for me on TV!) I bet you want to know about Mountain Creek status and snow/cold, correct?

Mountain Creek:

Well, as I thought, they pushed back their opening date to the 13th which should be actually be an AWESOME opening because north and south should open with ample terrain! Snowmaking will resume Friday and go non stop through the weekend and some natural snow will fall adding to the base for opening day! It's going to be an amazing December with trails rising quickly.

Snow:
There is nothing major to talk about snow wise right now as cold air will dominate the region but for Friday a front will passing through and some of us above 1,000 feet may pick up some minor accumulations adding to the 6-14 inches we have already had so far this season. At lower elevations and dusting is possible. As for Sunday of this weekend a clipper system will come through and could also put down a few inches at the highest elevations but overall lower accumulations, although I have seen these storms explode at the last second upping the snow amounts.

GFS (Sunday)

EURO (Sunday):

COLD SNOWMAKING AIR?:

It does get cold and stays in a cold weather pattern till Christmas, a warm up is possible for the holidays but cold will return. Personally I believe we will see a pattern reversal the first week of January toward mild and stormy conditions. Remember don't kill the messenger.

COLD AIR:

I'm back, and so is the cold

For one I would like apologize for my absence this past week. I have been overloaded with work and never got the chance to update. Unfortunately I have limited time today so things will be short.

For one, our storm Sunday was mostly rain with a high temperature of 34! That's a close call and I must say, I didn't see that coming. Interestingly enough that storm tracked way out to our west and brought up more mild air (though still below average) for early week but the cold air is building across the north and will come through this weekend. This will allow snowmakers to go on full blast adding to the snow made back in November and this will allow for the resorts in our area, including Mountain Creek to open for the second week in December.

Snow:
Besides frontal systems, some lake effect, and clipper systems (which will dominate this month) I don't yet see any potential threat for major snow. Most of our snow comes from coastal storms or "Nor'easters" but the cold will over our region will make any system go off to our south. We need slight break from the cold this month to get a big storm, I do believe December will still be cold and stormy, but will it be snowy?

I will update later tonight or tomorrow if I get a chance! Feel free to comment the blog or email for any questions. Later!