Do to recent spam comments on the blog I changed some settings so that each time you want to comment a word verification box will pop up. I'm not even too sure if it works. If it's a complete pain let me know, I just don't want a reader to accidentally click on a spam link and get a bad virus. Remember, if you do see a comment on this blog that has a link do not click on it. (Unless ofcourse it's me)
Thanks! And try to comment this post and see if it even works. Let me know? Ok? Cool!
Friday, January 9, 2009
Other blog
Just to let everyone know I have another blog committed to global warming, or "Glo-BULL warming". Check out the link for my personal thoughts on the controversial topic, and please comment, I would love to talk.
http://globullwarming.blogspot.com/
http://globullwarming.blogspot.com/
Thursday, January 8, 2009
WRF update
The WRF model, aka NAM at 18z just printed out 1.10 inches equivalent of precip. If correct, then the snow could be impressive. Just 1 inch of liquid equals about ten inches of snow at 32 degrees anyway. With a high 0f 27 and 1.10 inches then it could get interesting. It's not going to be wide spread, but someone, in a localized area, could get a foot of snow.
The general trend still looks to be 4-7 inches but keep checking back in, these things always change.
The general trend still looks to be 4-7 inches but keep checking back in, these things always change.
Things are lookin bright
Well after several snow squalls today about an inch of the white stuff has fallen at my house in Netcong on top of 1/4 inch of ice! Last night the temperature hit 33.1 for a few minutes then started to fall, so it did get above freezing. Today's on the other hand did not get above that 32.0 line which means Sussex NJ will now start a DEEP freeze that could last for the next two weeks without getting above freezing. It also seems likely we will have one day next week with a high in the single digits and a night that falls below 0.
With the pattern the next two weeks we need to start thinking about clipper systems coming from the north and west, because it's really the only type of snows we can get in a such a cold snap. This Saturday will be the first of these clippers which will bring several inches of fresh snow to our area! From then on out it will remain cold and some light snows here and there, but nothing to serious.
Unlike the last storm, I WILL make a snow map for this one. The reason I did not make one for the last is because I really didn't see the snow amounts that Accuweather, weather.com, NOAA, and local news channels were seeing. Upper level warm air was coming in WAY to fast to support snows for a long period of time and most of the "snow" period fell as either virga or a dry slot was over us.
January is looking bright, just not the last few days of the month :(
With the pattern the next two weeks we need to start thinking about clipper systems coming from the north and west, because it's really the only type of snows we can get in a such a cold snap. This Saturday will be the first of these clippers which will bring several inches of fresh snow to our area! From then on out it will remain cold and some light snows here and there, but nothing to serious.
Unlike the last storm, I WILL make a snow map for this one. The reason I did not make one for the last is because I really didn't see the snow amounts that Accuweather, weather.com, NOAA, and local news channels were seeing. Upper level warm air was coming in WAY to fast to support snows for a long period of time and most of the "snow" period fell as either virga or a dry slot was over us.
January is looking bright, just not the last few days of the month :(
Monday, January 5, 2009
Long Range
I wanted to hold off on the snow map for now until tomorrow morning because a few things that I just don't see coming together yet. It still seems as if 2-4 inches of snow will fall for Sussex before the change over but I'm not to confident of what type of precip will fall in which areas. I have a feeling that the amount of frozen still could vary from 0.5-5 inches across Sussex and I want to check out more maps tomorrow morning.
Long Range:
Looking into the future after this storm a cold front will move through bring us the coldest and longest duration of cold in perhaps several years. There could be several days in a row where we won't be able to get above 20 degrees and maybe the first negatives since February 4th of 2007. The cold will mostly likely be the heart of our winter, but yielding little in the way of natural snowfall. The good news is that the ski resorts in the region will reach full operation, this will be Mountain Creek first in about 3 winters.
Around the 24th of the month a storm will ride up the coast, perhaps providing us with some nice snows, but it's all bad news. The storm is riding up a warm front which will bring in an all out January thaw where temperatures could reach the 60's. This warmth could last through the first week of February or even longer. Beyond this time frame, I would only be guessing what was going to happen.
I have a saying that one extreme leads to another of the opposite. So the coldest air in years would mean that the warmest air in years will soon follow. It always happens that way with the weather here in Northwest Jersey, even in the historic winter of 95-96 when over three feet of natural snow pack melted in a week with extreme warmth and a massive rain storm. It's just the way things go...
Long Range:
Looking into the future after this storm a cold front will move through bring us the coldest and longest duration of cold in perhaps several years. There could be several days in a row where we won't be able to get above 20 degrees and maybe the first negatives since February 4th of 2007. The cold will mostly likely be the heart of our winter, but yielding little in the way of natural snowfall. The good news is that the ski resorts in the region will reach full operation, this will be Mountain Creek first in about 3 winters.
Around the 24th of the month a storm will ride up the coast, perhaps providing us with some nice snows, but it's all bad news. The storm is riding up a warm front which will bring in an all out January thaw where temperatures could reach the 60's. This warmth could last through the first week of February or even longer. Beyond this time frame, I would only be guessing what was going to happen.
I have a saying that one extreme leads to another of the opposite. So the coldest air in years would mean that the warmest air in years will soon follow. It always happens that way with the weather here in Northwest Jersey, even in the historic winter of 95-96 when over three feet of natural snow pack melted in a week with extreme warmth and a massive rain storm. It's just the way things go...
It's never all snow anymore...
Well, yet again, a storm is on the horizon that will bring wintry weather but of course there will be a change over from snow. That's no surprise.
First off let's look at the NAM model and then check the atmospheric soundings to see what kind of precip we can expect.
At the start we can see a lack of cold air around but the NAM is a model that does not do very well with cold air. Thats why we now go to the sounding.
This sounding shows all snow, but only for the start.
Below is mid way through the storm and NAM shows some warm air around, but then look at the sounding. The surface temperature remains below zero. This is clearly sleet and freezing rain above 500 feet in elevation.
For the end of the storm on Thursday the NAM is hinting at some back lash snow which could put down a little more accumuations. Here is the model and sounding:
With the information I have now I would say 2-4 inches of snow could accumulate before the sloppy change over then significant ice is possible on the mountain tops, something Creek doesn't want more of. But a quick inch could fall on the back side before it all ends.
Right now I'm working on a snow map waiting for more updates to come out, and also some footage of my Maine trip. I will posts more blogs a little later on, probably a few of them today to catch up.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Back from Maine
What happened to the storm?
After spending an entire week without checking computer models I am back and getting into weather mode again. When I left I was looking at a storm for the 3rd of January which could have been a big snow maker. Since today is the 4Th, it's safe to say nothing happened, not yet anyway. The weather has been modified slightly and some of that energy from the storm I was seeing a week ago will still be coming our way.
During the week a storm will ride up the Mountains with snow at the start, then going to a mix, and then to just plain old rain. But what else is new right? It's been that story for the past two years already. The position of the storm means everything and with a lack of cold air in place it's gonna be sloppy instead of snowy.
More updates tomorrow with maps!
What about snow making?
After this storm moves on through it looks like the longest stretch of cold air will move this winter and could yield some minor snows here and there, but I don't see anything to get excited for just yet. Mountain Creeks trail counts will rise steadily and could near full operation by mid month.
December averages.
~ 13.8 inches of snow (185% of the average)
~Average high = 38.2 ( -1.2 from average)
~Average low = 23.8 ( +2.9 from average)
~11 days of snow
~15 days of snow pack
December ended up slightly warmer than normal but with almost double the normal snowfall for the month.
Tomorrow I will post videos and pictures of my trip to Maine and try to check up with the current weather events coming our way. I need to unpack and get some sleep tonight but expect more post/posts tomorrow! Think snow.
After spending an entire week without checking computer models I am back and getting into weather mode again. When I left I was looking at a storm for the 3rd of January which could have been a big snow maker. Since today is the 4Th, it's safe to say nothing happened, not yet anyway. The weather has been modified slightly and some of that energy from the storm I was seeing a week ago will still be coming our way.
During the week a storm will ride up the Mountains with snow at the start, then going to a mix, and then to just plain old rain. But what else is new right? It's been that story for the past two years already. The position of the storm means everything and with a lack of cold air in place it's gonna be sloppy instead of snowy.
More updates tomorrow with maps!
What about snow making?
After this storm moves on through it looks like the longest stretch of cold air will move this winter and could yield some minor snows here and there, but I don't see anything to get excited for just yet. Mountain Creeks trail counts will rise steadily and could near full operation by mid month.
December averages.
~ 13.8 inches of snow (185% of the average)
~Average high = 38.2 ( -1.2 from average)
~Average low = 23.8 ( +2.9 from average)
~11 days of snow
~15 days of snow pack
December ended up slightly warmer than normal but with almost double the normal snowfall for the month.
Tomorrow I will post videos and pictures of my trip to Maine and try to check up with the current weather events coming our way. I need to unpack and get some sleep tonight but expect more post/posts tomorrow! Think snow.
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