Snowmaggedon Continues....

The deepest snow cover in the east right now isn't over Vermont, Maine, or even Mount Washington. It's over the Mid-Atlantic states, and that includes the nations capital. So far Washington D.C, Baltimore, Philly, Atlantic City, Delaware, South Jersey, South Eastern P.A, all of Maryland, and Northern Virginia all officially have their ALL TIME SNOWIEST WINTER on record going back to the late 1800's. It's normal for a city or two to break the record but an entire region? By this time tomorrow every single one the States will report snow cover on the ground. And that includes Florida! No doubt areas down there will also report all time season records, considering winter storm warnings extend into north Florida!!!

Here is the nations current snow cover:

Here is the southern snow storm:

And some people will be saying that more snow and cold is a sign of global warming. I say those people need to get theirs heads examined. Because no matter what happens with the weather, they say it's a cause of human induced global warming. It's complete lunacy, and as the world continues to cool they will find a way somehow someway to blame man.

Okay, enough of my ranting before I bore you to death. Let's talk more snow. Yes, it's coming again Monday night into Tuesday and it looks right now like a 3-5 inch event which we will add on top of our already deep snowpack. Check out the latest GFS run for the storm (needs to be watched closely for possible development):

Beyond this storm it looks like there is more to come. But let's take it one at a time? Snowmaggedon isn't letting up anytime soon and will continue right into March as the Arctic Oscillation is in the tank. I've never seen a weather set up like this before, this is a season people will talk about for years and years to come like the infamous 1996 and 1978. This is what the AO looks like:

Right now my town has 44"-47" inches of snow for the season (elevation depending), and today will mark day 41 of not getting above freezing. Last year we had 50 inches of snow and 50 days below freezing and we will break that in the coming weeks.

Remember if you ask nicely, the snow gods will provide!

Snowmap

Here is the NWS snowfall forecast map. Which I like very much, perhaps they are a little to conservative though: (White area inicates about 15")

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Yeah, it's a blizzard

When I was a little kid I remember one storm that dropped over 3 feet of snow and brought gusty winds. It was the last "true" blizzard that my area has ever experienced. Sure we have had some BIG snows like the presidents day storm, December 2006, and a few others but this one may require Blizzard warnings to be posted for almost the entire state. Winds of 35 mph or greater with heavy snow and visibility below 1/4 mile is the definition of blizzard, and it will happen. IT'S A BLIZZARD!

Now areas in Maryland and Virginia like D.C. will have nearly four feet of snow on the ground by Thursday morning. Four feet? And that includes Philly. Something is going on with our atmosphere because by the weekend I expect the nation to have it's all time record snow cover. From the Canadian border all the way to the Gulf Coast. Yes that means the state of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, and south east Texas. And with no "thaw" for the next two week AT LEAST the snow won't melt, not here anyway.

The latest precipitation amount for all of North Jersey is well over 1.25 inches of liquid, and now factor 15:1 and 20:1 ratios. And don't forget to factor in elevation and banding. My estimate being 15"-25" inches with locally higher amounts. You like that? I do.

Snow map later

Yeah, it

It's our turn now

Well, the storm stayed south of the forecast area this time. I measure 0.5 of inch while areas two miles north received not even a dusting. And the same time, areas two miles south of me got 3 inches. For every two miles you drive south just add an inch each time and thats basically what fell and where. In a few more days we may be talking about yet another blizzard, this time with the heavy snow further north.

The talk of this next "blizzard" is already underway because this could yield more snow than what was seen in this past storm but puts North Jersey as a whole in the bulls eye. Now it will produce less in the way of precipitation but snow ratios will equal 30 inches for each inch of liquid. It's still several days and things can always change, for better or for worse. Here is the lastest GFS which is in agreement with all operational models.

If you look above you can see the polar vortex centered over Virginia! What is going on? Seriously, this is not normal. The area of precipitation will not move in from the south or west but come right off the ocean from the east, and negatively tilted trough basically associated in part with a strengthening NAO.

Below is the map of the total liquid precipitation of this weeks storm. North Jersey is in the 0.90-1.20 range and yes, 30:1 ratios. You do the math. Check back soon.

Noaa's forecast

Here is NWS latest snowfall forecast. Of course any minor shift north or south will change amounts drastically.

Blizzard, but not for all...

With blizzard warnings down along the shore and winter storm warnings up everyone is bracing for a big snowstorm. Some places in SW Jersey could easily pick up 30" inches of snow and back into Washington D.C. and the Delmarva. Places in Mid Atlantic will pick up their record snowfall season of all time including the nations capital, and winter still has a lot to go. The northern edge of the storm will track over North Jersey, and the exact track can mean getting nothing or 18". Right now I'm going in between, here is the snow map below: (*Note: The wide range of accumulation amounts. Biggests totals in the range will over on southern boundaries of each interval, and minimal amounts north.)

Trust me, I don't like this map one bit. But I have a good feeling that is it relatively correct, although I may have to update it tomorrow morning. The GFS and the JMA are the ones that seem to make the most sense to me, so I'm going to side with them. Here they below:

Now that you have analyzed the maps above (you should), you notice that the storm track is off of the Virginia/North Carolina border which is not "prime" for the North Jersey. But we will be cold during the storm and snow ratios will be 20:1 while South Jersey has 10:1 ratios. If the system tracks slightly north there could be a second band of big snowfall across the northern area and in higher elevations, but a very skinny one at that. For this reason we must WATCH this closely because the amounts I forecasted could easily bust big time, and I mean they could double.

Below is the total QPF of the entire storm. Find out how much liquid falls over your area and do a 20:1 ratio if you live north of 78, 10:1 south of trenton, and 15:1 in between. What do you think? Comment!

Till tomorrow, THINK SNOW AND PRAY TO THE SNOW GODS!