Long Ranger (For Mountain Creek)

Ok, the weather has been a little on the boring side lately. But not to worry! As I've been saying in here in the blog and via facebook (if your my friend), the cold is coming around the Thanksgiving Holiday. I'm not just talking a polar air mass, but an all out arctic punch. Here is the run down up till that point:

First off we need to get through this mid-week storm. It's a Great Lakes cutter which means the track is not going to be favorable for snow anywhere in the northeast. Even the highest resorts in northern New England will really get a wet down. The upper mid-west will get their first significant snowfall of the season from this one.

Now that we get through that little mess, and polar front will move from behind the storm bringing marginally cold air. Perhaps some small snowmaking windows during the late night time hours? More of a system "test" than anything large scale.

After that, a brief warm up will occur has the trough pulls east off the north american continent. It may get real warm for a few days. But I have a saying, "one extreme leads to another". And that is so true. There may be a point next week where we are in the 60's and temperatures could drop some 45 degrees in the matter of a day or two. This maps is for Thanksgiving Day, just take a look at the impressive frontal boundary. Possibly a rain to snow event.

This next map is my absolute favorite. The first arctic onslaught of the season blasts the country, and snowmaking is being done on a large scale (Everywhere in the east). Mountain Creek should have no problem opening on their scheduled date. Map is for 11-28

IT'S A SIGN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Take a look at the most recent NAM run:
























That's a storm backing in off the coast. Exactly what I was thinking would happen nearly a week ago. This will end up bringing snow to the highest elevations in New England. Killington Vermont has already had 24" this season and will surely get even more early in the week. If the cold air mass was a little more potent and the storm track was further south then I would put us in that snow regime, unfortunately it didn't work out that way.

Although it already snowed 4 days by this time last year (about 1" in most places, 5" at high point) we are still only and inch behind last years snow totals for this date. So don't feel like we are getting shafted, cause the season hasn't even really started!

Next week it's going to get warm, and in my mind "one extreme leads to another". And I keep proving that theory of mine right. I have some EXCITING NEWS! A major stratospheric warming event is occurring over the polar region, this will send the arctic oscillation deeply negative and signals to me that an arctic outbreak is not more than 2 week away. It look like the snow makers at Mountain Creek will be turning on around Thanksgiving, with the aid of natural snowfall. The mountain will most definitely open on time and trail counts could rise quickly through the month of December.

Check out this warming event. The warning siren is going off in my head.

Snow?

As much as I like, excuse me, love snow. I think the NWS is jumping the gun by forecasting Rain/Snow mix for Friday night into Saturday. Personally, I don't see what they are seeing. I said it will be a rain storm in my last blog and that's all it will be. Now, some lake effect snow flurries could randomly work their way into the northwest corner of the state this weekend but it seems even that will be at low odds.

November will provide an early snow making window for the lower elevation resorts like Mountain Creek to open right on time this year in early December. And a November snow event seems likely, it's just around the corner...

P.S. Several northeast resorts are already open like Killington Vermont!

Now that's just what I was thinking...

If you read my previous blog from yesterday first then you'll be able to understand this one a little better. But that idea I had about a storm backing into somewhere in the northeast looks likely for the weekend. The only question is where? The northern side of the storm will bring warmer temperatures and rain, while the southern side could bring a major snowstorm. Yes that's right, rain north and snow south. We just have to figure out where the low tracks...

(P.S. what if this storm hooks up with the energy from Tomas?)

This is more my style....

Today is Halloween. And I can tell that from all the toilet paper that has taken the place of the leaves that are all but gone now. Leaf drop was before Halloween for the second year in a row, and those were the only two times since the turn of the century in 2000. With the exception of the 1998 winter leaves typically fell off before Halloween regularly during the 90's, and it looks as if we have entered that cycle again.

For those of you who like snow, and like to ski and snowboard, I have some good news. In the coming week places like Snowshoe, Killington, Mount Snow, Stowe, Jay, and the other snow making super powers will open for the season. The lower elevation resorts of the Appalachian foot hills like Mountain Creek, Camelback, West Mountain, and Jack Frost will be able to make snow in the coming nights. But at a foolish cost. Either way the moderately cold temperatures will allow for these places to at least test their system. It's going to be several more weeks before these places can really start pumping out meaningful snow.

Now we have a very interesting event in our future. First off is the classic nor'easter set up that will unfold over the mid part of the week. The primary coming up the spine of the Appalachians and then a secondary forming right off the coast. Unfortunately this will not provide snow, unless you live on the west slopes of the mountains from the Smokey's to the Allegheny and north toward the east shores of the Great Lakes as the first major lake effect event of the season sets up.


















Okay, so obviously that's not the storm I'm getting excited for. After the rains have ended a sharp, narrow, deep trough will set up shop. With it, comes cold weather and if any precipitation falls it will in the form of snow. Note the trough in the model image below, when this happens typically the mass air cuts of from the main source and that's when it get's interesting. It's a similar situation that we had with this past winter season in the Mid Atlantic.


















There is only one thing a pattern like this to do. And that is cut off and send a storm back tracking into the northeast. But where, and when is the question? A set up like this one can have rain on the northern end, and snow in the southern side. An odd idea, but it happened several times last year when the Mid-Atlantic was getting a blizzard and it was raining in Vermont and Maine.


















The image above has a black arrow representing the possible path of a storm. One that could get interesting somewhere in the northeast...

I'm ready for winter...

These past few days I've taken a big break from blogging. And that was the long process of winterizing my fish pond, camper, boat, and waverunner. On top of that I have sreen houses on my patio that needed to be taken down, umbrellas, chairs, tables, torches, law statues, and etc which needed to be cleaned down and put in the basement. I'm finally done. And now it's going to get warm again. Can you see any irony?

First off most places in the Northwest corner have had their first frost. And those of you at lower elevations already had your first freeze. For example High Point hasn't had it's first freeze, but Hope Township has already had 3 and Pequest has had 7!

Most shocking of all was that there were some isolated snow showers on Radar in the early evening of Friday last week. I personally can't confirm that the pecipitation was hitting the ground but I have a strong feeling that it did.

The pattern for this week won't supply much in the way of cold weather, and it looks like October this year is going to end up snowless for most of us. A good indication that a good sized November snow event seems to be in the cards later in the month. Good news for ski areas that want to open a little earlier than planned...

Don't worry we still have another chance

The precipitation that could have brought North Jersey areas above 1,000 feet some snow and mix precipitation seems like it will be passing mostly to the south. But as lows tonight get into the mid and upper 30's any reflectivity over the area on the radar could indicate wintry precip. It doesn't seem to likely tonight, but late week could get interesting as we have colder air to deal with along with a bit more moisture.

I have to go and do some thermodynamic's problems now :(