Models in agreement now...

Once again the GFS was over done on this storm. It finally caught on to the idea that every other model has been seeing for several days. The storm looks like it will go out to sea.

It just goes to show that the United States has the least advanced weather models. We need to play a serious game of catch up to reach the level of the European model, or even the Canadian. Another one bites the dust.

After this storm I don't see any other major snow threats all the way up to January. This could very well be a near snowless December, and personally I give us less than 10% chance of a white Christmas.

I know we are all down in the dumps right now, but it's the weather! Things can change on a dime and we will get ours. The snow haters in the region can't be lucky all season...

Winter Storm Outlook

There are a lot of different weather models out there. Some are known to be notoriously bad, and others almost spot on. Let's take a look at a few of these and see which is the winning the model for our big snowstorm potential come Sunday.

1st up: GFS (Currently shows a 10"-15" snowstorm across most of Jersey)

2nd up: DGEX or extended NAM/ETA, same difference... (Similar to GFS)

3rd up: ECMWF or European model (Shows a storm going way out to sea, no snow)

I can go on for hours with different types of models. As of right now the only models showing a snowstorm on Sunday are the GFS and DGEX. They both run off of the same basics physics and computer program so I would expect them to be very similar. The odd thing is that the Euro, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET, and CMC all have the precipitation just offshore from the Jersey coastline. Let's give the models another day or so. Will the GFS come out on top? Or will it bust like it did on the last event.

The plunge

Our future for natural snowfall looks lame to say the least. We do have some possible chances in the coming week but as of right now it's way to early to get a grasp on it. After this nasty little rain storm expect sharply colder conditions for the rest of the week, with snowmaking temperatures 24/7. Mountain Creek and other local resorts may end up having more than half of their terrain open by Christmas. Impressive, but why?

We have had plenty of cold air lately, but almost no natural snowfall. This may end up being a cold winter which is not alway a good thing. Last winter was warmer than normal with copious amounts of the white stuff while previous years were much colder with half the snowfall. Why you ask? This is where I get a little advanced, so try to follow along.

There is short range forecasting and then long range forecasting. Long range forecasting requires a strong knowledge in atmospheric dynamics, oscillation patterns, and teleconnections. There are several patterns which directly impact the weather here in North Jersey:

NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)

AO (Arctic Oscillation)

AMO (Atlantic multi decadal oscillation)

ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation)

PDO (Pacific decadal oscillation)

PNA (Pacific North American)

QBO (Quasi biennial oscillation)

All of these have a negative phase and positive phase, as well as "neutral" in between. Some switch phase weekly, biannual, yearly, and even every 30 years. Our negative NAO supplies us with stormy weather and cooler temperatures, and we have been negative! The problem is the La Nina which likes to track storms up the Appalachians and also the extremely negative arctic oscillation which is providing us with too much cold air dry air.

Current ENSO phase (La Nina)

Last year the AO went record negative. In fact the graph only went to -4 and the climate prediction center had to fix the graph to go to -6. Well, the AO may reach another record minimum in coming days.

The cause? Strong stratospheric warming over the high latitudes. The most impressive I've ever seen. Take a look at the animation, you can see the sudden warm up over Siberia.

You think it's cold here? For December it's very impressive. In fact parts of Europe are seeing the worst winter in several hundred years. I wish I knew why, but it could very well be the fact that our current solar cycle is the weakest since the Dalton Minimum in the early 1800's.

People are alway talking about how the winters here haven't been so good in the past 20 years. You here from your parents how bad the winters were "back in the day", and most people think of global warming. Wrong. For one the intense solar cycles of the 90's and 00's lead to warm decades. Also the AMO shifted into it's 30 year warm phase, and when it goes back to negative within the next 5 years expect winters similar to the 1970's.

We also have an unfavorable Quasi biennial oscillation phase. Every 28 months the winds in the stratosphere above the tropics shift direction from easterly (negative) to westerly (positive). Current we are positive which means storm track further inland and more intense hurricane season. The QBO was positive in 2005 as well when we had our record hurricane season. The La Nina, westerly QBO, and positive AMO means increase in hurricane activity. Not caused from global warming.

We still have a lot of winter to go. In fact, it hasn't started yet. Every winter brings something new and interesting. I'm sure this one will do the same.

It's not our storm

Well, this blog is in response to yesterdays post. The GFS played it's usual games for day 4 out, and North Jersey will see primarily a rain event. The precipitation may start off as a wintry mix then go to a heavy rain for Sunday to end as snow on Sunday night. As of right now it does not look as if we will see much in the way of accumulation. It's just not our storm.

The good news is Mountain Creek is opening Saturday with 10 trails. At the rate they are going I wouldn't be surprised if they are 100% open by Christmas. That hasn't happened in the past 11 years I've been going there. After the rain Sunday snowmaking will resume around the clock for another week straight at least.

Creek's Forecast:

Monday: Snow Showers

High: 28

Low: 10

Tuesday: Partly Cloudy & windy

High: 15

Low: 4

Wednesday: Clear

High: 20

Low: 9

You wonder why my forecast is so much colder than any other site? That's because they adjust their forecast to climatology. So naturally it will be much warmer. For example NOAA forecasted 29 for a high today and the actual was 23, but five days ago they said 34 for today. That method of forecasting doesn't work to well in north Jersey, but it seems to work better in the city.

Not only that, but I live here in southern Sussex county. I know the weather here much better than some guy in Atlanta working for The Weather Channel or an employee at Mount Holly NWS who lives in south Jersey. In the end, my forecast it verify much better. And I think we should do a little experiment. Below I will post The Weather Channel and National Weather Service forecast for Mon-Wed of next week. Let's see who does better?

TWC:

Monday- 34/11 Rain/Snow showers

Tuesday- 22/12 Partly Cloudy

Wednesday- 24/19 Scattered Flurry

NWS:

Monday- 31/12 Snow showers

Tuesday- 23/11 Flurries

Wednesday- 26/14 Partly Sunny

Let the game begin...

18z GFS goes to all snow

The 18z GFS just came out and shifted the storm out to sea. Now this is just one model and only run certain run of it. The question is will it verify? The answer is I won't be sure until about 11:30 tonight when the 00z model comes out.

Tomorrow we could look at this blog entry and say one of two things:

1. Wow the GFS really caught on this storm well! All snow! Yay!

2. Global Forecasting System? More like Good For Shi..p if you ask me :(

We will find out the answer next time on North Jersey Weather Outlook! Thanks for watching.

P.S. I'm in the "joking" mood. Hence lots of sarcasm...

December let's go...

Today marks the 5th day in a row with snow flakes in the air. But up to this point accumulation has been minimal. Snowmaking at the local resorts is really going strong and it looks as if they should have no problem opening on time. I told you they would :)

Let's talk about the storm for Sunday to Monday. Most operational models have gone to the idea that it's wintry mix to start then turning to all rain and possible light snow to end it. Trust me, it's not what I want to hear either. We still have several days for things to shape up but it's not looking so good. The latest run of the GFS gives at least some hope for minor accumulations.

After our rain has turned the slopes into slush we have a big problem. The coldest air mass of the season will bring in temperatures that will not break out of the teens for highs. That means the slushy slopes will turn into an ice skating rink, but the guns will be able to go non-stop with high efficiency turning that surface into the frozen granular type.

There is still some uncertainty in this forecast. Check back daily to look for any updates. As soon as I get a better grasp on things you'll be the first to know.

Snow Outlook

Well, it's December and I'm finally done with my "snowmaking" outlooks. The season for that has already started and temperatures that allow for the guns to be on will occur nightly and after this weekend will be 24/7. Now it's time to officially start snow outlooks!

Case #1: A clipper system will pull out the mid-west and bring snow all the way to Virginia and North Carolina and even some wet snow will mix in on the Outer Banks on Sunday. This one will not produce any snowfall for our area. And at the same this is occurring expect a snowstorm raging up in New England. Basically it will snow everywhere except Jersey...

Case #2: On the 12th-13th of this month a monster will ride up the eastern seaboard. This is the storm that holds the most potential for impressive snow amounts. It's still really far out so we have to keep a close tab on it.