Well, that was interesting

The blizzard hit, but there was one sharp western cut off. At my house in Netcong only 8" of snow fell, while 10 miles east are topping 18" because of intense bands last nights. And just 20 miles east some areas are reporting 31.8". And central park is currently at 13".

Storm tally and update later

Update on blizzard

Since yesterday I have no changes to my snow map. I want to stress how dangerous this storm is to everyone. Just because snow totals may not be as much as we got back in February, this system will be colder and produce a lot more wind! If you must leave your house make sure you have four wheel drive and do not go anywhere without making necessary preparations. Travel is discouraged!

In the event that you leave your home make sure to pack a safety kit. Water, flash light, shovel, kitty litter/or sand, blankets, food, and your cell phone are a must! If you get stranded in the storm don't not try to travel by foot! Stay in your car and notify locals officials of your location.

Map still looks good to me:

Drifts 3-5 feet could cause some roads to be impassable even by truck. Also colder temperatures will allow to the snow to stick much quicker to roadways and road salt will be less effective. Enjoy and be safe!

Merry Christmas

As of yesterday morning all operational weather models were in agreement that the storm will go out to sea (OTS). Then the GFS at 12z showed a massive snowstorm along the eastern seaboard, and NCEP/HPC said the model wasn't initialized correctly. That basically meant to ignore the model completely. Then the 18z model came out and showed a similar scenario, and that began to raise some eyebrows. By Christmas morning all models (globally) went to the idea of a major east coast blizzard. Merry Christmas!

Take a look at the 18z NAM total liquid precipitation for the event:

Now I based my snow totals on this model only, and tomorrow I will make another snow map and adjust the forecast if needed. I mainly based it off the total precip (QPF) but also included the higher snow ratios in colder western areas. For every 1 inch of liquid 15 inches of snow will fall in western sections and 10:1 ratio toward the city. Here is my snow map, and no I'm not being conservative at all.

Any shift eastward or westward on the exact track can drastically change the total snow amounts. By tomorrow morning I should have a map that I'm finally happy with.

P.S. Just like last years blizzards, a major stratospheric warming event over the arctic caused the arctic oscillation to tank at record low levels. It just goes to show how weather somewhere else in the world affect us right here at home. It reminds me of the butterfly effect http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect

The Snow Drought

First off I want to apologize for not posting in the last couple of days. I've been busy working trying to get everything done before the holiday. Personally, you didn't miss much.

My last blog brought up the possibility of a Christmas snow storm. There are two problems with that as of now. First off the current system out to sea along the northeast coast is acting as a block slowing the flow and thus delaying the storm system. Second the delay in the storm system will allow for more bitterly cold air to attack the region sending the storm out to sea entirely. December will end with 0.4" of snow at Sussex Airport, thanks to an extremely cold and dry weather pattern.

Even with this practically snowless month Mountain Creek is having it's best start to the season in, well, ever. Natural snowfall doesn't help out resorts in this region to much, they rely on the man made snow. Real snow sublimates (evaporates from a solid to gas), melts faster, and disappears quickly in a rain storm. But the man made snow is more thaw resistant, rain proof, and makes for a better base. Now obviously natural snow makes for better surface conditions but thats all it's really good for, except for the mountains out west of course.

Here is a look at the Euro for the storm this Sunday:

After the New Year a pattern change will be in the works. One that makes for more mild and stormy weather. The problem is the storms will like to track up through the Great Lakes putting us on the warm side of things, but January will be more likely to give us some snow. I just can't believe December didn't provide us with one decent snowfall given the negative NAO and record negative AO. It just goes to show how different a La Nina season is compared to El Nino like last year.

P.S. Don't get bummed out just yet. While the best part of this storm will hit coastal areas and some fish out sea we may still get some light snow out it all. The storm is still 72 hours away, and things can and will change between now and then.

First Christmas Snowstorm Since 2002?

There is nothing like a perfect Christmas Eve by the fireplace, drinking a cup of hot coco, and watching the flakes fly. Will we all get that opportunity on Christmas? Well only if you have a fireplace, because the chance of at least some snowfall looks promising.

Currently the EURO, GFS, and DGEX are all suggesting a good dump of snow. They all predict around a foot for most of the state, but all we need is an inch for a white Christmas.

The GFS:

The DGEX:

The Euro:

Now some models like the JMA, GEM, and NOGAPS track the storm offshore. The event is still five days away and the models need a little time to get things right and come into agreement. It seems likely that places further east have a better shot at bigger snowstorm but if the track changes by just 50 to 100 miles then things could be very different. The difference between a major snowfall and partly cloudy skies relies on the exact track of this system.

I'll post tomorrow on the progress of the models and begin to make my forecast for the upcoming event. Make sure you all tell Santa what you want for Christmas, a SNOWSTORM!

The Void

I want to point out that our region is the only one with below average snowfall for the season thus far. In fact, we are the only ones without a decent snow event. Washington D.C., Cape May, Long Island, Virginia, Raleigh NC, and north Georgia are all ahead of us snow wise. Take a look at this sad map of current snow cover:

Will this trend continue? I personally believe so. In fact, after this weekend a 360 degree circle around us will have snow cover. This weekends storm looked bad to me all week, and I refused to jump on it. And it looks like that was a good decision because the storm will go out sea, missing us entirely.

There are several chances of snow after this weekend for our area. The first would be mid week, but that looks as if it could go south and give Washington another dump of snow. The second would be Christmas Eve into Christmas day. We just need to be patient, even I am becoming some what frustrated.

The good news is that the cold air has allowed the resorts to really pump out the white stuff and Mountain Creek is having their best start to the season I have ever seen. If we were in a snowy pattern we would probably be warmer which means the snowmaking could not be as extensive. In a way, things are working out well. Stay positive and stay tuned.

European model changes it's mind

The Euro model is one the best weather models out there right now, and it shows a sizable snowstorm for most of the state come Sunday:

The only thing is, I don't buy it. Currently it's the only model showing this kind of solution and it could be just one bad run. I'm sticking with my little to no snow accumulation out of this weekends snowstorm. I could be eating these words by morning, but I just don't see it right now. I actually hope I'm wrong.

Check back tomorrow for final call and a snow map if needed.