Snow Map 1/2/14

A fairly uniform snowfall for the state of NJ. Most amounts in the north will range from 6"-8" but areas along the east and some areas up north in the coldest part of the storm could see some areas nearing 10" do to higher snow ratios. 

Winter's Return

Old man winter is back from buisness trip out west and once again at our door step. We have a few interesting event coming up. One is of course the snowstorm on the way and second is the extreme cold on its heels. Let's start off with a few images of QPF for the event.

Generally most models are predicting 0.25" (minimum) to a maximum of around 0.75".  On a normal 10:1 ratio (10 inches of snow per 1 inch of liquid) I would forecast a 3"-7" range but this storm is much colder than the typical systems we get. In fact the ratios could be close to double the "standard" near 20:1. Below is a sounding and it's showing the tempertures well below freezing through the entire column. This could cause a 3"-7" to be more like 6"-12". 

I'm going to post a snowfall map later tonight once I get a better idea of the QPF amounts. 

Clipper System

A clipper is moving through for tomorrow morning and should make the commute a nightmare. Very simple system so there isn't too much to go into here. Snow map should explain it all.

Now by the end of the week winter will take a break for awhile and we can take a break from shoveling.... for now.

The Snow Begins

The snow has begun to fall lightly across the area and unlike the last system will slowly begin to increase in intensity. Today is an all snow event for north Jersey, however the entire system will not be. We have a warm layer inversion moving in tonight which will melt the snow falling through the column and with temperatures still cold at the surface will refreeze back into sleet pellets before hitting the ground. Example below.

This will cut accumulations down but sleet accumulates quickly on roadways and will only create a thaw resisant blanket over the snowpack. This snow is sticking around for at least the next week.

Below is a QPF map from the GFS which has been handling the winter weather much better this year than the NAM. 

Not all of that liquid will fall as snow otherwise I would be calling for a 12+ in locations. Snow map is below and enjoy. I'm going to hit the slopes today.

P.S. More snow coming Tuesday! How much? Stay tuned....

Update**

The map for today's snowfall that I issued last night verifed very well. I based it directly off the GFS snow totals (the model that handled Sunday's snowfall the best). I have a new respect for the GFS and perhaps the upgrades made over the summer have something to do with it.

Speaking of GFS it shows a major snowstorm for this weekend.

I don't like making any kind of call this far out.... you can bet I'll be posting very frequently over the next few days.

More snow

Another round of snow just in time for tomorrow's commute. I did very poorly on the last forecast and I'm not going to let that happen again. The GFS was correct in reguards to precip amounts over the region and the NAM didn't perform to well. This time the GFS and NAM are on more of an agreement so this is based on QPF amounts of the storm. It's not a "major" event but the timing couldn't be worse, I suggest getting an early start tomorrow to beat the fuss. 

Snowfall map December 10th 2013:

Update

A massive shift southward in this system has allowed for little precip to fall over northern NJ. Some areas over southern portions of the state have pick up 5"-10" of snow! Unexpected and none of the models caught on. A second round of precip will move in by early morning but by then the warmer air would have won the battle and sleet and freezing rain will be the primary form of precip till the change to rain.