Update**

I have no changes to map I issued yesterday. Tomorrow I'll start looking into accumulation amounts but most of us will see little if any. There is just a lack of cold air with this system from about 850mb to the surface. Check back tomorrow.

Outlook Map For Next Week

Just a preliminary map for next weeks storm. As of right now there are no models showing NJ having a major snow event. Instead it crushes us with flooding rains on the order of several inches with lots of wind. The models do show snow to start but the low retrogrades inland right over Long Island, which is too close for an NJ snowstorm. Perhaps ending as a little snow as it pulls away. Now a shift of 50 miles east could bring that significant snow line over NE PA into our neighborhood (6+ inches). Let's keep an eye on the exact track of this system....

Snow Outlook

Start off by saying our warm air advection event Tuesday ended up having a lot of dry air for NW Jersey. The precipitation shield split in two with the heaviest being over the Poconos and central Jersey. By the time steadier precip rates made it to our area the column was too warm, which was a worry of mine. Still some places were able to pick up a nice coating before the change over.
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I want to talk about a potential Nor' Easter for early next week. And this looks to be just BARELY cold enough for snow, but I have to admit it's setups like this one that create historical events.

The GEM model really goes all out on this system. With a lack of cold air in place this causes record breaking flooding across the region. How ever this is still too far out to make any judgement, the point of showing this map is that this storm is on the maps.

The UKMET also shows this system but intensifying further north over New England.

 

I hate the JMA, but it shows it...

The EURO gives us a major winter storm and a blizzard over New England.

And the GFS is out in La La Land....

The GFS, NOGAPS, and extended NAM (all American models) say the storm is a no go. Yet all the other models out there say yes, and given the track record of the American models I can confidently they are garbage runs and to ignore them. In a few days they will start to catch on slowly but there WILL be a storm, question is how far close to NJ does it form and how much cold air will be available. There is nothing more I can say or do except wait for more runs to come in to track this storms path and intensity. 

Check back this weekend. Things could get pretty interesting...

Wintry Weather For Tuesday

The image below shows the start of the event for tomorrow afternoon. Plenty of cold air in this sounding and it's snowing pretty hard. Note the red line is the freezing line and the blue line is temperature.

Just three hours later we start to see the warmer air around 850 this will be the change over to sleet. So we have about a 3 to 4 hour window of snow get the accumulations. After that it's a done deal.

Just another three hours goes by and the warmer air is winning out between 950mb and 800mb. At the surface temperatures are still below freezing. This sounding shows freezing rain which will linger the longest in valley locations where the cold air gets trapped. 

Yet another three hours later the warm air has won out at all levels and it ends as rain for everyone. 

This is a very difficult event to forecast accumulations. It really depends how much snow can fall in the first several hours of the system. If it comes down heavy at an inch an hour we could get a nice surprise. Now if the storm starts off slow with dry air we may have issues getting the ground covered. This map is my best guess but confidence very low. Check back daily for updates.

More Wintry Weather On It's Way...

While things look to be moderating going into December we will have just enough cold air around for more accumulating snow for Tuesday night into Wednesday. When warmer air over rides the colder air things can get interesting. In most cases these systems start off as snow, then to prolonged period of sleet, and then to freezing rain (especially in the valley locations). By the end of the event most areas end as rain but not long enough to wash the snow away. The key with this system is how much moisture does it bring and how quickly does the snow accumulate before the change over. Once again higher elevations will get the most and your position north. As of right now it doesn't seem to be a big deal and a few areas could get a couple inches at most. More updates tomorrow.

What a little snow cover can do...

We live in such a small state, but we can have vast differences over the 168 miles from Cape May to High Point. Here is my point, near 60's in South Jersey while areas north with snow are stuck in the 30's.

How was my forecast on this past storm?

Title says it all. Did I forecast well? Am I even worth listening to, or just another social media hype, gloom, and doom attention seeker?

Let's find out! Here is my first initial map issued on Sunday when a lot of meteorologists were still saying the storm system would go out to sea. My significant snow area outlined was near 100% accuracy keeping the major cities just miles out of the storms reach. Go ahead, match up the lines with what fell, I'll wait.

Top Map: My outlook on Sunday
Bottom Map: What actually fell

This isn't a "Northeast US" blog so how did I do with the New Jersey higher resolution map. I pretty much nailed the forecast for south Jersey and for north and west. However I did go a little over board with the snowfall for Hudson, eastern Union, eastern Bergen, and Essex counties by 1"-2". In my final forecast I did note that urban areas would see the lower end of the contour values and the highest terrain would see the highest contour values. My highest amount forecast was for 12" TOPS in the state, and the highest total was in Wantage at 11.7". Accuracy was near 85%, not bad for predicting the future.

I do need to point out that I did say most areas N&W would be all snow yet for about an hour it started as rain. Only High Point started as all snow. I did over look the warmer air at the surface and I need to keep this in mind for future events.

Top Map: My forecast issued Tuesday
Bottom Map: What actually fell

I did learn a few things from this storm from my mistakes. It's not easy to get accumulating in the eastern sections this time of year and starting off with a lack of cold air in place. Also, when the precipitation get's lighter in intensity it allows the return of warmer air at the surface and cause a change over very quickly.

This blog wasn't intended to gloat or brag about how I did, but to point out my mistakes and what I did correct and try to improve the forecast for the next storm. I'm going to try to do this for every major event regardless of the result. 

Keep checking back for updates about what's in store for December!