Snowmap for Dec 21st

This next system coming in will bring 4-7 inches across Sussex county with higher amounts in the highest elevations. The snowmap may need some revising as time goes on but it's a good illustration of whats to come. The problem with this storm is the lack of precip and it's a quick mover, but this one should remain all snow.

Here is the NAM model for Sunday's storm:

Let's move on to Christmas storm, although it's not good news. As of right now it looks like the storm will be mostly rain. The only thing is the models just 4 days ago showed a storm on the 19th being rain, and we all know it was snow so things can always change.

How much snow did you get in your area? Any questions or comments? Let me know! Have an awesome weekend and check back often.

Round 1 over

Well, what an amazing storm! Netcong picked up 7 inches of the white stuff which brings the season total to 15.15 inches! We should be well on our way to 70+ inches this year with 55+ inches in the Valley of Sussex county. I was snowboarding most of the day and I would estimate the bottom fo Creek got 6.5 inches and the top had well over 10 inches. It was amazing!

As for tomorrow snow showers will be around and snowmaking will go round the clock! I don't suggest going to Creek tomorrow because it will be VERY crowded. Try going at around 5:00 at night when everyone leaves, or go Sunday night. The Sunday storm looks to be all frozen precip but more mixing could go on, but it seems that the area will get 4-8 inches. Check back tomorrow morning, I will post a snowmap and some m0dels!

Have an awesome weekend!

Snowmap

Well here is the snow map! You like it? It's a little odd, but I think it gets the point through. I am thinking that places above 1,000 feet north of I-80 get 8-12 inches of snow.

The parade of storms has begun and will continue for the foreseeable future. I promised a snowy December, and that will come true after this week. Enjoy and check back every so often for updates! I'll be snowboarding POWDER tomorrow so it might be a late post about the Sunday storm.

-Any questions or comments? Ask! Enjoy the snow.

JFK Friday Morning

This is for one of the blog readers!

Here is a skew-T- Diagram for JFK airport Friday morning.


















This is based off of the 18z run of the GFS and shows all snow falling. The air according to the models over JFK during most of the storm is marginal so you might luck out with lower snow accumulations over that area. If the storm shifts slightly (I'm talking 20 miles) then you have 10 inches of snow at JFK. I'll update tomorrow with the new model runs, check back in! I hoped this helped!

Wow....

Well storm number 1 has moved through bringing northwest Jersey up to 3 inches (2.25 in Netcong). Mostly higher elevations got the snow, which is no surprise. Let's move on.

Storm # 2 comes Thursday into Friday, and it's looking interesting. It's going to come in the form of heavy snow for hours on end with precip amounts (liquid) of 1-2 inches. If we do the usual 1 inch of rain = 10 inches of snow, factor in some mixing, northwest Jersey could be looking at 10-15 inches of snow. It's not offical yet so check back tomorrow!

Check out the NAM:

Storm # 3 comes in Sunday into Monday but looks less favorable than storm 2, but things can change over the next few days. It does seem as if accumulation is possible.

Storm #4, yes a fourth within ONE WEEK come Christmas eve. It's too far out right now to tell what type of precip it will bring, but with cold air lingering, it could be more frozen stuff!

It's and active week coming up, check back in tomorrow!!!

Euro shows major snowstorm

This weekend will be a not one but two storms. On the 20th Storm number 1 will come through and bring mostly a rain event will a mix on the north side. This storm is mostly a rain maker, but storm number 2 on the 22nd could be a major snowstorm. The GFS and DGEX are going with a warmer solution but the EURO is showing a massive Nor' Easter going up the coast laying down significant snowfall. Before I am going to jump to conclusions I want to see consistency in the model runs, but for now, let's not get excited just yet.

EURO: (Click for bigger image)

This is 101

Well this is my 101st blog since I switched from myspace to blogspot last year! Things are getting interesting now, and I'm not sure what to think.

First off we are under a winter storm watch! Believe it or not, cause it did get to 60 across the lower elevations of Sussex and mid 50's above 1000 feet. That's warm! this is what the national weather service is saying: "

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 PM EST MON DEC 15 2008
NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-162100-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-
335 PM EST MON DEC 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WINTRY WEATHER EVENT IS LIKELY STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC AIR
BEHIND IT AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COUPLE OF PRECIPITATION SURGES ARE FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR PRECIPITATION
TO FALL AS SLEET AND SNOW. AS MORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN, ITS POSSIBLE
THAT PRECIPITATION MIGHT CHANGE TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY EVENING. THE
PROCESS IS THEN EXPECTED TO REVERSE ITSELF LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN OR JUST END AS
WEDNESDAY CONTINUES.

THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WINTER
STORM WARNING CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET MIGHT ACCUMULATE ALONG WITH A GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS CONTINUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WOULD START
IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE ON TUESDAY AND HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE ALSO.

PLEASE USE THE TIME PRIOR TO THE EVENT TO MAKE THE NECESSARY
PREPARATIONS."

Looking at the models I'm having a problem seeing what they are seeing because there is no snow showing up! But the soundings are showing an interesting trend. I'm going to show you a neat little trick:

1. On the right hand side of the page under useful weather models click soundings

2. Under Step 1 pick GFS

3. Under Step 2 select how many hours out, GFS does 6, 12, 18, 24 etc

4. Under Step 3 pick skew-t diagram

5. In Step 4 type in k12n (Sussex airport code)

6. Then Click go make sounding!

Well you get this: (Click for bigger image)

It may seem hard to read but the bottom of the chart is the surface of earth where we live and the higher on the chart represents the higher in the atomphere. This actually shows the temperature! If the upper atmosphere is below 0 and the surface is below 0 than it can snow outside! If it's above, depending how much, you get freezing rain, sleet, or just plain rain. The blue line represent temperature and the Skew-T above is a snow sounding for 9:00 A.M tomorrow morning...

To be honest, I see how the higher elevations get a little snow, but something seems very wrong to me about this whole storm. We could wake up tomorrow surprised, or we could wake up very disappointed. At this point, I would encourage you to try looking at weather models, soundings, and the NOAA winter weather outlooks. All this can be found on the right hand side of my page. The models come out at 00utc (mid night) 06utc(6 AM) 12utc(noon) 18utc(6 PM), try it! If you have any questions or comments on anything feel free to email or comment, I'll try my best to help you!

Oh yeah, and LONG RANGE:

Remember that storm I was talking about around the 20th? Well the GFS shows a nice snow storm on the coast, but the Euro shows a very similar storm to what happened this past weekend. As of now I'm going with the Euro because it has been the most accurate so far this season...