The Big Storm

It's 12:12 A.M on Wednesday and I cannot sleep. The reason is I realize that I am about to experience history. But let's recap winter so far.

The first snow was October 15th followed by the 16th, then the 17th, and then the 18th. Yes, it snowed four days straight in the middle of October. For the Second October in a row we had accumulating snow. Both years were followed by snowless and mild Novembers, but the year before had a HOT October and November brought a surprise 6-10 inch snowstorm on the 19th. Perhaps it's something of interest with long term weather patterns?

The total snowfall so far this year for my house is 52.65 inches, along with 68 days of snow cover and we are currently in a 29 day stretch of consecutive snow cover.

Like the graph? Yeah I get bored. Anyway, I have also had 44 days this season where my day high time stayed below freezing. The average per year is around 31. Last year we had 50, which I do not think we will beat. The lowest temp was January 10th at 6.6 degrees, not very impressive for a winter.

As I look outside I see a thick, thaw resistant snowpack. That's what it is, snowpack. It's been building up since January and has become so solid you can walk on it and only make a small impression in the snow. It's not going anywhere for a long time. And now we are going to add what could be several feet on top of it.

Just take a look here:

That's a blizzard with heavy snowfall measured in feet with hurricane force winds. This could be the storm of the century. Your going to experience history if this is the scenario that's going to happen, because this make January 1996 look like a walk in the park.

Rough week ahead

Yesterday I said that by sometime today I will know exactly what's going to happen with the storms (more than one) this coming week. I lied. The models are still all over the place, and it doesn't look right to me. First off we will start off as snow, then as warmer air invades the upper air it will change to sleet and even some freezing rain in southern portions of the area. It will be a very active week, but does not look like it will bring any big snow totals to the area.

Now on Friday the storm will basically get swallowed up into New England, and they will be measuring the snow there in feet. Which is exactly why I will be going to Killington Vermont this coming weekend. The only thing is, all we need is a small shift in the storm track and things can play out much different.

I can't say with certainty or with high confidence what's going to happen just yet. It's a complicated pattern and one that will be interesting to see the outcome. Check back tomorrow.

Interesting...

Alright well I won't be around for long today. So let me just give you the run down for this coming week. First off we have a warmer system moving through Monday-Tuesday, this will make for a heavy wet snow around 1,000 feet and mixing with rain will occur below that. And yes big accumulations may come out of that. Second we have a storm trailing right behind this one that will get caught in the polar vortex and will sort of be sucked in off the coast right back inland. A classic set up. The only problem is the models are not in agreement, and it's to messy of a set up to start calling for accumulations and when/where they will happen. Tomorrow sometime after noon I will post another blog, by then I should know exactly what's going to happen. It looks interesting to say the least, and any weather personal that tries to give you a forecast before then is taking a shot in the dark because this is not going to be easy to forecast.

Oh boy. An old theory of mine came true...

Check out this link on NE snowstorms. One of my old blogs.

http://meteomaddness.blogspot.com/2008/03/noreaster-2009.html

It's not even close to over...

Today's little snow event brought my season total to 47 inches this season, which is nothing compared to areas south. The snowpack is back up a foot now and it's not going to melt very much, although it will melt some. Later this week the temperatures will reach the mid and upper 30's and many will be thinking that winter is coming to a close. They are wrong, and will get a taste of reality come next week. Arctic air will unload from the north and yes, a big snowstorm is in the making for early next week. Just check out the euro (Let's hope this isn't a mid-Atlantic special, cause we are the northeast!):

Clipper snow map

Ok, we have a nice little clipper moving on through the area tonight into the day tomorrow. Now this time northwest Jersey is the winner, not by much though. Elevation will play a role this time because lower areas will be near or above freezing, which is why accumulations near the city have been cut down. I can see how there are a lot of 4 inch and 4.5 inch amounts but the higher terrain will pick up at least 6 inches. While the snow will be brief toward the city it will linger on and off through day Tuesday north and west as the clipper tries to bomb out off shore. Good news is I can see how Killington gets foot of freshies, and since I have a season pass there that makes me happy!

Here is the total QPF over the area:

And here is my snow map for the event. The 6+ won't have to occur where I indicated, I was just trying to show that higher terrain in some areas will squeeze out half a foot. Other than that I think this map will work pretty well for everyone.

Snow Snow Snow

We have a good chance at a nice little snow event Monday-Tuesday. Right now I would say it looks like a 3-6 inch event for our immediate area, but we can handle that. It's just a little dusting right? Anyway the purpose of this blog is what the 00z Euro model is showing at 216 hours out for the 22nd of the month. This could mark the end of this snowy and cold pattern, or just be an addition to snowmaggedon. It's still far out, but the GFS has been showing it as well:

Winter in the east next year may not be so "great" so enjoy this pattern while it lasts. By the way check out the current snow cover. It extend from the Canadian border to the Gulf coast, and that includes Florida! All 50 states currently have snow cover, wow.