Is it over?

First off, today marks the end of my consecutive snow cover. Since January 28th I have not seen my lawn until today making it a 45 streak (Jan 28th - Mar 13th). Here is the chart:

Impressive, but is it a record? Well, that will never be known since records like that have not been kept anywhere local except for Morristown which might as well be a different climate completely. I would compare this to the winter of 78' from what my parents told me, which means this was the worst overall winter in over 30 years when talking about the following statz:

The temps:

Days below freezing: 45 days

December average: 29.4 (-2.13 degrees)

January average: 25.8 (-0.68 degrees)

February average: 28.0 (-1.0 degrees)

The snow statz:

Days of snow cover: 85

Longest snow cover: 45 days

Season total snow: 78.9" (Average of last 7 winters is 53.7")

December snow: 22.25" (+14.95")

January snow: 6.00" (-8.00")

February snow: 48.9" (+40.9")

Deepest snow cover: 31.5"

Days of snowfall: 35

Ok, so it was an amazing winter. "Was" is past tense but will spring provide a shock to remind everyone to beware the ides of March? Right now all indices and models point to March 21st (the first day of spring) bringing winter back. It's way to far out right now, but the arctic oscillation which is currently positive will go back negative. If the cold comes back in at the right moment then local resorts may be skiing and riding into the Easter weekend, if they can survive the coming week and 5 inches of rain...

History Is Being Made?

Well. I got finally got my snowstorm. The 8.5" inches of snow that I had on lawn turned into 31.5" inches in just a days time. Season totals in the higher elevations are now between 70"-90", more than what I thought. More than what anyone could have imagined. The thing is we still get snow in March, and even into April most years. It's not done yet.

First off here are statz of this winter season: (Netcong NJ)

Days Below Freezing -44

Season Total Snow - 77"

Days of Snow cover- 72

Days of Wintry precip- 32

Biggest Storm Total- 24.5" (Feb 25-28 still snowing now)

February Snow Total- 48" (That's Killington's Feb Average)

Longest Below Freezing Streak - Little over 300 hours!

And take a look at this drift, and that's me. In my camo, it's cause I always feel like I blend in with the trees when I'm boarding soft powder in the glades at Killington. Yeah, I do have some issues to work on.

Now on to the weather. Today snow squalls with being coming down out of the north and could produce some thunder. Anywhere from a trace to 2" could accumulate with the most in the higher terrain above 1,000 feet. (This is still the storm that dumped all snow since Thursday, just its part of that total)

Mountain Creek also has a 50"-60" inch base. Which is the highest that I personally have ever seen and just goes to show how much snow fell. I was walking just off the trail cause I fell in powder and the natural snow depth was up to my stomach on the north face of Vernon. That's 40" of natural stuff. These snow cover depths beat January 1996, and that's not easy to do. And snow melt will be slow and even more gets piled on.

Wednesday is our next possibility for snow. But as of right now does not look to good. It seems as if the low is going to go out to sea to far south for us to see anything more than flurries or a few snow showers. Of course the last storm shifted track on the models two days before! Let's see what happens to the system up in Maine early this week. Once that is out of the way the models will get a better grasp on the mid-week threat.

The fact is now that its March and most likely everyday will getting into the 40's in the coming weeks and 50's aren't too far off either. March comes in like Lion, but always seems to leave like a Lamb. And that should be the case this year. Remember this winter, because your going to talk and hear about for a very long time.

Check back this week for snow outlooks.

Well, It's Going To Snow

First thing, just look at this: (OOz GFS)

When you hear claps of thunder don't be surprised. Winds will peak at the height of the storm and diminish as the low tracks right over us. I was going to go to Vermont, but it's going to rain there. This kind of storm doesn't happen very often.

Check out the snowmap. I had fun with this one. Of course that 24"+ will be somewhere, but it can still shift.

Enjoy the storm, cause it's going to be fun.

The Big Storm

It's 12:12 A.M on Wednesday and I cannot sleep. The reason is I realize that I am about to experience history. But let's recap winter so far.

The first snow was October 15th followed by the 16th, then the 17th, and then the 18th. Yes, it snowed four days straight in the middle of October. For the Second October in a row we had accumulating snow. Both years were followed by snowless and mild Novembers, but the year before had a HOT October and November brought a surprise 6-10 inch snowstorm on the 19th. Perhaps it's something of interest with long term weather patterns?

The total snowfall so far this year for my house is 52.65 inches, along with 68 days of snow cover and we are currently in a 29 day stretch of consecutive snow cover.

Like the graph? Yeah I get bored. Anyway, I have also had 44 days this season where my day high time stayed below freezing. The average per year is around 31. Last year we had 50, which I do not think we will beat. The lowest temp was January 10th at 6.6 degrees, not very impressive for a winter.

As I look outside I see a thick, thaw resistant snowpack. That's what it is, snowpack. It's been building up since January and has become so solid you can walk on it and only make a small impression in the snow. It's not going anywhere for a long time. And now we are going to add what could be several feet on top of it.

Just take a look here:

That's a blizzard with heavy snowfall measured in feet with hurricane force winds. This could be the storm of the century. Your going to experience history if this is the scenario that's going to happen, because this make January 1996 look like a walk in the park.

Rough week ahead

Yesterday I said that by sometime today I will know exactly what's going to happen with the storms (more than one) this coming week. I lied. The models are still all over the place, and it doesn't look right to me. First off we will start off as snow, then as warmer air invades the upper air it will change to sleet and even some freezing rain in southern portions of the area. It will be a very active week, but does not look like it will bring any big snow totals to the area.

Now on Friday the storm will basically get swallowed up into New England, and they will be measuring the snow there in feet. Which is exactly why I will be going to Killington Vermont this coming weekend. The only thing is, all we need is a small shift in the storm track and things can play out much different.

I can't say with certainty or with high confidence what's going to happen just yet. It's a complicated pattern and one that will be interesting to see the outcome. Check back tomorrow.

Interesting...

Alright well I won't be around for long today. So let me just give you the run down for this coming week. First off we have a warmer system moving through Monday-Tuesday, this will make for a heavy wet snow around 1,000 feet and mixing with rain will occur below that. And yes big accumulations may come out of that. Second we have a storm trailing right behind this one that will get caught in the polar vortex and will sort of be sucked in off the coast right back inland. A classic set up. The only problem is the models are not in agreement, and it's to messy of a set up to start calling for accumulations and when/where they will happen. Tomorrow sometime after noon I will post another blog, by then I should know exactly what's going to happen. It looks interesting to say the least, and any weather personal that tries to give you a forecast before then is taking a shot in the dark because this is not going to be easy to forecast.

Oh boy. An old theory of mine came true...

Check out this link on NE snowstorms. One of my old blogs.

http://meteomaddness.blogspot.com/2008/03/noreaster-2009.html