Some Statistics For You...

Let's do another recap comparing last winter to this winter so far up to December 29th.

Winter 2013- 2014

Season snowfall:        15.9"
Days below freezing:  22
Days of snow cover:   24
Coldest reading:          11.3 degrees

Winter 2014-2015

Season snowfall:        11.6"
Days below freezing:  11
Days of snow cover:   13
Coldest reading:          13.7 degrees

While last year we were similar in the snow department, it's clear that we aren't seeing the cold temperatures that we saw last year. This year we had our cold come even earlier than last year and November brought over 10" across the area. This time last year there was no snow on the ground and the cold really got cranking in January.

Last January about 16" of snow fell, which is about the normal snowfall for the area. However in February nearly 40" fell which I believe will our snowiest month this year once the -QBO begins to weaken and allows the strong Pacific jet to weaken as well.

It was clear to me that this year wouldn't be as cold as last year, and that could even be found in my winter forecast (http://meteomaddness.blogspot.com/2014/11/winter-forecast-2014-2015.html). I also mentioned about an elevated risk of major snowstorms, which I still believe is a strong possibility. Last season we had a lot of events that added up to 72" for a season total, but this year the events could be cut in half but provide more precipitation and still give us a snowier than normal winter.

The pattern seems to be changing a bit and with cold air moving in the snow isn't to far behind. I see potential for storms in January but I want to give it a few more model runs before I open the flood gates of hype.

Let's run the numbers...

Adding to my post yesterday, I'm going to look further into the QBO signal and try to confirm or dismiss any rumor that "winter is over".


Here are the winters with a similar QBO Phase:

Here is how much snow fell in NYC those winters. We need to figure out what year matches up best with this year and what in the world happened in 2005-2006.

So right away I took a look at the ENSO phase. (Basically was it an El Nino, La Nina, El Nada?) Interestingly enough there is no consistency with ENSO phase and -QBO as seen below, but there is one year that's pretty similar. This year (so far) and 1979-1980 both feature a weak El Nino. The very snowy season of 2005-2006 was a neutral phase while the rest were La Nina.

Then I decided to look at the PDO, NAO, AO, AMO, and EPO which all gave me charts looking like the one below. Basically there is no link between these years and those indices. This could mean something else over powered the other indices or basically these winters only have the -QBO in similarity and it doesn't mean much for the winter pattern. Let's keep digging.

I finally looked at the PNA and saw that the trend was there, but nothing to impressive. How ever I had a difficult time finding this years line on the chart.

It was nearly over lapped by 1979-1980. That winter is linking up again with this one. This makes 79-80 a strong candidate for a matching analog winter.  

During most these years the PNA started off positive and went negative at times during the mid to late winter when I also noted NYC saw it's snowiest months, which is not expected. The data is conflicting and points to another force at play here. 

What ever happened in 2005-2006 is not happening this year (so far) in the data. As I could find nothing to match it up with. The 79-80 winter however linked up a little better but still has much that isn't in common with the numbers this year so far. The other 70's winters, had no signs of any linkage. The strong -QBO events of this past decade have way more in common when we start looking at long trend terms and patterns. 

My conclusion, the strong -QBO has minor influence on our winters and is only a percentages of the larger picture in a winter forecast. It alone cannot be used to determine how winter will behave. I made this decision after seeing very little in the way of linkage between this winter and the other winters with similar QBO indices. A strong -QBO can produce both snowy/snow less winters as seen in the data. I would love to use the majority of the 1970's winters as evidence but there are a few multi-decadal oscillations that are in totally opposite regimes today than 30+ years ago. Going off the data from this last decade it looks like we still have a strong possibility for a snowy winter though not at cold as last, which is still in line with my winter forecast. 

 I would love to hear some feedback from this. Any opinions and ideas are welcome. Thanks for reading!

Where is the cold?

Where is the cold air? It seems like its coming next week, but always seems to keep getting delayed. The problem, a strong Pacific jet as seen below in the left portion of the loop. This is aiding in keeping the cold arctic air locked up over the polar region and when it does make its way into the lower 48 it quickly gets swept away. 

The model are showing much colder air on the way but it could be short lived if this Pacific jet doesn't start to weaken. It's simply not allowing for a more winter like pattern to set up over the country and keeping the NAO and AO in positive phases. Another thing we look for to indicate cold and snowy weather is stratospheric warming events in the higher latitudes, and it looked a few weeks ago that it was occurring but the warm regime has collapsed as seen below.

So what's the cause of this persistent jet? Another meteorologist (DT from Wxrisk, a great guy to follow on Facebook) pointed out it could have to deal with the strong intensity of the QBO. The QBO is an upper level wind pattern over the equator that actually switches direction every year or so. So I looked up the past years with a a similar QBO pattern going into the winter months and highlighted them in yellow, red dots are no match.

The years with a match are pretty few and far between. What really interests me is that 2007-2008 is a close match and had an extremely strong -QBO. Some of the other years that match up are 1979-1980, 1974-1975, and 1970-1971. Here is a run down of how much snow fell in NYC those years and which month was the snowiest.

*07-08  11.9" (Feb 9.0")

*79-80  12.8" (Mar 4.6")

*74-75  13.1" (Feb 10.6")

*70-71  15.5" (Jan 11.4")

Each of the years season snow totals were about half of New York City's average snowfall. That is not a good sign. Interesting enough as the QBO began to weaken in the middle and late winter it finally allowed for bigger snow storms and colder weather. I take this as a sign that our snowiest month is yet to come in NJ. Just remember these are New York's averages and we get about double the snowfall per season so this is just to get an idea of what the trend is. 

I need to do some more research on this. If what I'm seeing here has any merit this winter is not going to be a very memorable one... I need to figure out if the other years had signals that match up with this season, if that's the case my winter forecast is a bust.

A quick meteorology lesson...

Right now the southern portion of NJ is seeing the coldest temperatures. Why? Clear skies there have allowed for heat to escape while up north the cloudy conditions act like a blanket trapping the warmer air. Some places in South Jersey saw 40 degrees for highs and are currently at 23 degrees while Netcong saw a high of 30 and is currently at 28 during the same time frame. Now that's why I love meteorology!

Will we have a white Christmas?

My last post talked about a potential storm for this weekend that the Euro was catching onto. This storm however will not effect us here in New Jersey. The Euro was wrong this time around and yes the GFS model was correct the entire time. I find that odd considering it's been the complete opposite this season.

Below is the map for the "storm" this Sunday off the Euro. Significant change!

So will we be able to get snow on the ground for Christmas? Our next system could clip the eastern seaboard on Tuesday but temperatures look marginal at best, and even if we did squeeze out the 1" necessary for a "white Christmas" I highly doubt it would make it till the 25th. 

On Christmas Eve it looks like it will be miserable outside. A good night to just stay home and watch a good movie with the family. The rain will even be falling as far north as Vermont and Maine.

The probability of a white Christmas looks very low, unless by chance the tail end of this system could put down a quick inch. I would say chances are below 20%.

Now, will it ever snow? The system to watch right now is for December 26th. The set up looks much better for a northeast snow event and plenty of cold air should be in place by then. After this storm system temperatures really start to take a plunge and it looks like winter really gets cranking. 

"Winter" So Far

I say "Winter" because it hasn't even started yet! Let's recap where we are at right now and compare to the epic season we had last year.

As of December 15th:

Last Year:

Snowfall:                      13.4"
Days of snow cover:        17
Days below freezing:       15

This Year:

Snowfall:                       11.6"
Days of snow cover:         13
Days below freezing:          8


So as of today we are currently behind where we were last year. Last year mid December was cold and snowy, how ever this year it's been more moderate (it hasn't been "warm") with more in the way of rain. By the time we hit Christmas Day last year we had no snow on the ground and winter didn't really get cranking again until mid January. I think we are going to play a game of catch up now...

I have been persistent in saying that this season will NOT be as cold as last season, so we won't catch up with the days of below freezing high temperatures. I'm very confident though that we will surpass last years snow fall total and days of snow cover comparing it to last year by January 15th. You can quote me on this.

The European model already has it's eyes on a major winter storm THIS COMING WEEKEND. Right now the other models are bullish on the idea, but they will all come into agreement over the next couple ideas. This storm system will make the turn up the coast and is capable of dumping double digit snow totals.

I hate to get ahead of myself but the rest of this month from this weekend on looks perfect for winter weather lovers and January doesn't look to disappoint either. You better believe I'm in storm watch mode so keep checking back. If you want a good forecast that is.... :)

Update**

The precipitation this morning never really started as snow for most across the area, instead the upper air warmed way to fast. When the precip started it was actually rain at 32 degrees, but in the image below the rain caused the surface air to cool down to 27 degrees with heavy freezing rain here in Netcong. The blue circle is the clear indication of when the rain started and cooled the column. We didn't rise above freezing till 12:00 noon.

This storm is very different from others. Normally the jet stream would take this storm north and spin it up into Canada, but this is a cut off low pressure system meaning the main jet is way up north and a piece broke off and is just trapping this system over the northeast. The image below helps to illustrate. 

This system could still be around in northern New England till Saturday and Sunday! This storm was born here, intensified here, and will essentially die here until it exhausts all it's energy and the atmosphere stabilizes. 

The system will have some slight re-strengthening and keep spiraling bands down over the region. The tricky part is that these bands will essentially sit over the same areas with little movement and produce accumulating snow. Question is where do they set up? My snow map is a complete shot in the dark and depends on where and if these bands move over New Jersey. 

Don't be shocked to see some surprise snow totals across the the higher terrain and also don't be surprised if your area gets nothing! Okay, I'm ready for the next storm...