Fall Color Update

While some areas have reached "peak" at higher elevations the change is only up to 70%. The true peak of 100% color should be arriving in the next two weeks. It neeeds to start snowing...

Winter Outlook 2010-2011

The first thing you want to look at when determining what an up coming winter will bring is always the winters of the past. Let's look at the past two winters.

Winter 09-10:

Snow days: 37

Days of snow cover: 85

Amount of snow: 81.5"

Winter 08-09:

Snow days: 46

Days of snow cover: 72

Amount of snow: 49.5"

I find it interesting that it snowed more days in 08-09 than it did last year, yet last year brought nearly double the season total snowfall than the previous year. Also most people would assume that last winter(09-10) was colder than (08-09) and that is wrong. In fact negatives numbers weren't even seen this past winter anywhere in the state of New Jersey, but more than half the state the previous winter saw near record cold temperatures. Including Walpack Center in Sussex which approached -20 degrees F.

February this year was just 1 degree below average but brought 48.9" inches of snow to a month in which we average just 8" inches (+40.9"). Mean while January 2009 was 6 degrees below average and brought just 12.7" inches in a month which we average 14" inches (-1.3"). This helps me make my point that the amount of snow you get doesn't always go hand in hand with the temperature. Meaning a month near average could bring TONS of snow or none, or a month with extreme cold could bring TONS of snow or none. Why you ask? Cause there are many other forces at work, and that's what we are going to take a look at.

Agenda:

1. Oscillation patterns "a look at the past to predict the future"

2. The temperatures

3. The precipitation

4. Let's make a season snow map?

5. How accurate have I been?

6. What's it all mean?

1.

The oscillation patterns whether they be atmospheric or oceanic are a predictable because they are just cycles. These cycles aren't alway equal in length. Some cycles last upward of 30 years or more while others could last just a couple months. For example the NAO is one type oscillation which could be primarily positive for 20 years then negative for anther twenty. Now while in the same time period you will have a winter where it's mostly negative while the 20 year cycle is in it's positive cycle. Then you can have monthly changes and even weekly changes. So basically the oscillations have oscillations that oscillate. If that makes any sense to you? Here is a basic example:

Alright now let's talk about these oscillations. Here are some of the ones that we will be talking about:

A. North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO):

-Forecast: Primarily negative

B. Arctic Oscillation(AO):

-Forecast: Slightly negative

C. El Nino Southern Oscillation(ENSO):

-Forecast: Strongly negative

D. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO):

-Forecast: Positive

E. Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO):

-Forecast: Negative

A. (NAO) First up is the NAO. One of the most important for our region of the country. In the images below you can see the history of the NAO from 1950-present, where for year on end could be primarily positive while other periods are mostly negative. If you take a closer look some of the negative winters are 1977-1978 / 1995-1996 / 2002-2003 / 2009-2010 which are all big snow seasons. There are some odd balls in there like 1997-1998, a year which practically no snow fell. But that's why the NAO is only part of the big picture.

We currently are in the middle of a NAO which is primarily negative and will remain there for most of the winter only coming positive for brief intervals at a time like last year. For a better understanding of the NAO check out the following site: http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/

B. (AO) Next on the list is the arctic oscillation. Last year this went off the charts in the negative direction which typically signals strong blocking over the pole displacing colder air and the jet stream to lower latitudes. Remember what happened last winter?

If you look at the above chart you can see the negative phases line up with the two snowiest and coldest months. December with 22.25" inches of snow and -2.1 degrees below average. And also February which we all can't forget. But January was 0.6 below average and just 6" inches of snow fell, and mostly in the beginning of the month.

Obviously understanding how the AO affects our weather is critical, but once again we need to look at the entire picture to understand the meaning. Stratospheric temperatures do matter in forecasting, although most only really care about the tropospheric temperature at the surface. But right now we have a battle taking place.

The AO is said to be negative when the stratosphere above the arctic is warmer than normal which displaces cold air south and creates blocking in correlation with the NAO. So the warmer it is the greater the impact, and the same for negative phase just with colder than normal temps. Think of the following image as a vertical profile of the atmosphere, I made some changes to help you understand better:

Pretend your at the building in the image. The time line says its about mid August, and since the air above you is warmer than normal in the stratosphere this would mean a negative phase in the AO. Assuming you took the empire state building and brought it to the arctic. Should I have used a big igloo for this example? Anyhow this is what creates blocking patterns. This AO is going to try it's hardest to stay in the negative phase through the winter, but at the same time a strengthening La Nina will be pumping warmer than normal air aloft in the stratosphere at middle latitudes, keeping the stratosphere at the pole colder than normal. This is our battle, and one which could make or break this winter season.

C. (ENSO) The El Nino Southern Oscillation will be brawling it out with the AO, which one will win it? Remember those years where it seemed like all we ever got was freezing rain and sleet? Even if is was 20 degrees outside the prominent precipitation type would still be ice! This was caused by warmer air above the surface while cooler air was at the surface. Please excuse my third grade drawing, I'm only trying to help out with this one.

Unfortunately a strong La Nina indicates to me that warmer air aloft could and probably will help to cut down on season total snowfall by adding freezing rain and sleet to the mix. And perhaps a significant amount at that, especially over the higher terrain.

The current La Nina pattern we are in may actually last for the next several years, which will eventually lead to brutally cold winter coming up in the next 3-5 years, similar to what happened in the 1970's. But the past winter's El Nino, even though it's gone helped to give us that warm summer which will lead into our winter. Above average temperatures for most of the eastern two thirds of the country seem to be what's in store. But don't get upset! Remember what I said before? Average temperature over a winter doesn't necessarily mean everything, last winter was much warmer than the previous and we got double the snowfall!

Another bummer with La Nina seasons is they aren't really known for providing abundant moisture. So I'm looking for near average precipitation (liquid equivalent).

D. (AMO) The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation went into it's warm phase in the mid 1990's (positive), that warm cycle should last about 25 years. In fact it's last cold year was during the season of 1995-1996, which was not only snowy but very cold. We are well into that warm phase and we have the better part of a decade before it begins into it's cold cycles once more. This is not very helpful to us, if you want cold and snow anyhow. When this goes this cold once again we are going to have some amazing winters in store, something to look forward to I guess?

E. (PDO) The Pacific Decadal Oscillation went negative just a few years and that marked it's new 30 year cold phase which will remain that way for decades to come. This has to do with waters off the coast of Alaska and have an effect on the westerly flows that come from the west to the east which brings us most of our winter time weather. During the cold phase of the PDO increased precipitation coming in from the northern Pacific brings extreme snowfalls to Rockies and Alaskan glaciers typically begin to reclaim the land they previously occupied. During some winters depending on some other factors this could really help us out, or hurt us. This year I can see how it helps us.

That's all for the oscillations. I probably have you bored already! Let's move onto the good stuff now.

2. Below is the map for the projected temperatures for this upcoming winter season, sorry? I want to stress that while it seems extremely warm its the anomaly from the average. So there will be cold periods and there will be warm periods. By the time it's all said and done the winter could end up around 1.5 to 2.5 degrees warmer than normal.

3. The precipitation for the winter season is an important factor because it can give us an idea how much snow fall to forecast. Of course not all the precipitation during the winter will fall as snow, so we need to come up with some sort of system to figure out how much snow could fall with average precipitation while factoring everything into the equation that we talked about so far. The average winter time precipitation for north Jersey (Dec-Mar) is:

December- 3.63"

January- 3.83"

February- 2.96"

March- 3.79"

Total liquid equivalent: 14.21"

Now you have average liquid over the winter time period. After factoring in the whole picture, elevation, averages, and little bit of love you can make a good snow map. Ok, maybe love is a little much...

Below is the total snowfall per season since I started my measuring back in the day. The average snowfall for my town at 1,000 feet is 55" inches per season which means most of north Jersey averaged 50"-60" depending on elevation mostly. As you can see we have seemed to reach a "peak" season last winter, so I can only assume it's downhill from there. I would put this up coming winters snow totals at just average to slightly below.

4. The snow map!

5. Previous winter outlooks:

Winter 09-10: Prediction of blizzard (2 years in advance)

Winter Outlook (Nailed the north Jersey forecast!)

Winter 08-09: Winter Outlook (Over did the snow totals a bit)

Winter 07-08: Winter Outlook (My inexperience did me in on this one)

6. What's it all mean?

-Snowfall will be near normal to slightly below

-Temperature will be 1.5-2.5 degrees warmer than normal

-Ice and sleet may be a more common event than snowfall

-May be very dry for extended periods of time

Any questions? Comments? Suggestions? Comment below or email me at millirod@kean.edu

Fall is awesome!

From the bright green of the white birch in early spring, to the greens of summer, to the brilliant colors of the sugar maple in fall we are moving quickly through this year. Next on the list is the blue spruce covered in a white dusting. (That would be winter if you haven't caught on)

Fall Foliage Update: As of today the leaves in the northwest corner of the state are around 25%-35% changed. With even more in some isolated areas that are nearing 75% change. All this rain will help to slow the quickly changing foliage with an estimated peak around Oct 10th-15th. Leaf drop will mostly likely be completed before Halloween just like it was last year.

(Yes, I took this while driving...)

As much as I am just waiting for snow, I see nothing in the near future or extended future that would signal an early season snowfall. It's going to be very difficult to beat last years early snow event on October 15, 16, and 17. I can assure you that as the weather get more interesting I will be posting more and more blogs, and sometimes even several times a day...

Till then Hasta Luego!

Fall colors extremely early this year

Look what lack of rain does. Picture was taken in Byram NJ on September 16th 2010.

Fall is in the air. Finally...

This summer was a hot one for sure. In my area where Warren, Sussex, and Morris counties come together we broke 90 on a grand total of 4 days. Those days being:

**Netcong-Hopatcong-Mount Olive**

July 4- 91.7

July 5- 92.7

July 6- 97.1 (All time record is 98)

July 7- 95.0

While my area may have only busted the 90 mark 4 times the entire year NYC did it 37 times! But those days have come to an end. In fact northwest Jersey will struggle to even see 80+ temperatures until next spring for places above 500 feet in elevation. It's all down hill from here folks, which is good if your a snow lover like me.

I also want to point out that the leaves are off to a very quick start this season, and without rain will mostly likely peak around the 15th-20th of October. But unfortunately dry summers lead to a dull fall, lacking in bright colors. That shouldn't matter anyway, because winter is still lurking around the corner.

Summer is slowly fading away...

I was outside last night at 8:00 pm and it was completely dark, and chilly enough for me to want to put jeans and a hoody on! And more enough there is a noticeable and very early change in the leaves, almost completely do to the dry summer we've had. While only small amounts of color, it's about one month ahead of normal comparative to September 15th-25th.

I can't wait for the weather to start acting up. Cause then the blogs start up...

Let's clear up a few things?

As of late, it seems like every time something nature or environmental acts up, or "extreme" events happen everyone likes to blame global warming. I will do one blog at time, tackling each issue individually. Here are a few things I have heard being the "result" of global warming:

Our state:

1. New Jersey trout population decline in almost every river

2. Increase in snow events (past winter)

3. Increase in flooding events

4. Decrease in ski resorts

5. Increase in annual temperature

World Wide:

1. Increase in volcanic activity

2. Increase in earthquakes

3. Katrina

4. Increase in flooding events

5. Increase in annual temperature

6. Increase in tropical activity

7. Decrease in arctic and antarctic sea ice

What is really happening with Jersey native brook trout?

1. First off I want to talk about the New Jersey native trout population which has seen a near extinction in the state except for a few small creeks in the mountains of the northwest corner. The belief is that since trout are a cold water species, global warming has warmed up their water ways depleting the amount oxygen they can breath and eventually die. And in fact this is almost exactly what happens, but sorry it's not the full truth.

The problem is man made, and it's called dams. Trout are a species that swim upstream in order to spawn, and dams prohibit them from getting there. Not only that, after years and years of sediment and deposit the area behind dams becomes more shallow and eventually seaweed begins to take over. The weeds slow the current allowing it to bask in the warm summer sun, and on top of that the weeds suck even more oxygen out of the water that the trout need to breath. Also these dams create more turbidity in the water, giving it a muddy and grimy look which is also a negative for native trout.

The only way to bring back the native trout is to remove dams. And in places where dams are needed those areas need to be dredged of sediment as it builds up and those old step dams need to be replaced by step dams. The step dams allow the trout to jump up a few feet at a time to make it back to their native spawning grounds. Currently the state is working on removing dams, reconstructing the old ones, and removing seaweed. One day, in our life times the native brook trout will return to the future clear water streams and rivers of New Jersey. It just takes one step at a time.

There is still another issue that will limit the amount of trout that could roam our future water ways. And it's caused by man yet again. The introduction of non-native fish, the biggest problem being carp. Brought here from Europe and other parts of the world the carp thrive here often reaching 20"-40" inches in length and weighing 8-40 pounds (And they get even bigger). These fish are gentle giants and in almost every pond, lake, stream, and river in the state and that's not a good thing. They are bottom feeders, which means they eat the eggs of the native species of fish including trout eggs. Carp populations are extremely high in the state and I personally know of areas where you can see dozens of them swimming around and eating everything in sight. They are always hungry and eat continuously, with only three natural predators. That being the occasional human(most people consider them garbage fish and throw them back), the blue heron(eats a very limited number of them), and the musky which is a fish that poses another threat.

Just yesterday I was fishing a deep hole in the Musconetcong for trout (stocked of course), and I see a musky swimming around, then another, and then another. The hole also had several dozen walleye all near two foot in length. Those fish are eating something, and it's most likely the trout which go down quite easily. They can swallow them whole. My point is here that musky and walleye are not native to New Jersey, and introduced by humans for sport fishing around the state.

We can never get rid of the carp, walleye, and musky. They do very well here in the state and populations have soared. Walleye and musky populations are still not large enough to deplete trout populations but carp are. Carp fishing is fun, what isn't about pulling out a three foot fish using a single piece of corn? My solution to the carp problem is to open up a bow hunting season for them, with contests, events, and other incentives for people help at least control their population. Just like we do for other land based animals such as deer.

Now some of you may be thinking why should the state do all this work for some fish species that practically disappeared decades ago? And that's an easy question. It benefits all types of fish species, as well as land based species that feed out of the rivers, which in turn affects us. It's a chain of events that betters the environment as a whole. Also it will help our dying lakes which have become so overwhelmed with seaweed it's becoming a health hazard. Lake Lackawanna in Byram township in the summer gives off such a smell that a passerby may become sick to their stomachs. Lake Musconetcong on the boarder of Sussex/Morris county once had beaches, boating, and swimming. Now it breed mosquitoes that make it hard to enjoy a warm summer night, once successful business on the lake all now all but gone, the beaches are so mucky that it's dangerous to enter because the 15 feet of quick sand like sediment. The max depth is 5 five and the water is so dirty it's impossible to see the bottom, and the weeds can't even grow past four feet because the sunlight can't reach bottom!

It's not just about brook trout. It's about new jobs, enhancing the economy, bringing revenue to lake communitys, addressing health issues, and helping to repair the environment that man altered the wrong way. Don't get me wrong, nature can be altered. It just has to be done the proper way without changing the ecology of the ecosystem. Man made global warming is not the cause of everything, and in fact it's not even proven to exist. Even if global temperatures went back to what the alarmist consider "normal", the environmental issues will not be solved. Not one of them.

P.S. -There is no "normal" temperature. Natural variability has been occurring for 4 billion years. Let's drop this global warming scam and actually address the REAL issues that we are facing. Next blog will be about how some blamed global warming on this recently harsh winter... yeah that's right. Warming means cold and snow. People need to stop talking out of their you know what's...